4.20 Bath – British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (C4) 1m3f137y, Good, 3yo+ fillies & mares (66–85)

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Pace & Draw Angles

  • Likely pace: Even-to-muddling. Song Brocade and Harpsichord can be handy/press; Miss Dolly Rocker happy on the speed or stalking. Azahara Palace and Simply Ruby more likely to be played late; Gangster Granny mid-div.
  • Draw: Around Bath’s tight turns a low stall is a plus over this trip. Stalls 1–3 (Miss Dolly Rocker, Harpsichord, Song Brocade) get the geometry.

Strongest Contenders / Dangers / Outsiders

Proven

  • Miss Dolly Rocker (81), Draw 1 – PROVEN
    Course win here (Sep ’24) and rock-solid 12f figures (peak RPR 90). Handles good ground, thrives around sharp tracks. The low draw + prominent style look ideal if the pace is only fair.

Progressive / Promising

  • Harpsichord (82), Draw 2 – PROGRESSIVE
    3yo with uptrend; RPR 90 last time and a Listed 2nd earlier. Looks ready to run to low-90s; sits handy, which suits Bath. Minor query: best recent step was on AW, but turf runs solid and pedigree stays.
  • Song Brocade (76), Draw 3 – PROMISING
    Beckett 3yo stepping up to her trip; strong handicap debut RPR 85 at 10f and bred to improve for 12f. Could get an easy rhythm near the lead from stall 3. Big player off 8-13.
  • Simply Ruby (76), Draw 8 – PROGRESSIVE
    Took a soft-ground 12f handicap nicely (RPR 85) and earlier GF maiden win says ground is fine. Stays well; slight class-rise test and widest draw to overcome.

Main Danger from older brigade

  • Azahara Palace (80), Draw 6 – CAPABLE BUT IN-AND-OUT
    Epsom 12f win (C5) then shaped like 10f was too sharp last time. Back up in trip is a plus, but she’s not always easy to time and may need a stronger pace than she’ll get.

Interesting Outsider

  • Gangster Granny (74), Draw 5 – STAYING TYPE
    Irish raider who nearly nicked a 14.5f at Killarney. Blinkers have helped; this sharp 12f on good may feel brisk if they don’t go hard. Place squeak if it turns into a test late, otherwise vulnerable to speed.

Runner Scores & Suitability (out of 10)

  • Miss Dolly Rocker – 8/10
    ✔ C&D suitability (Bath win), ✔ good-ground 12f, ✔ low draw/handy style. Weight fine for level; arrives in form (recent Chepstow C3 4th).
  • Harpsichord – 8/10
    ✔ Upward curve, ✔ trip, ✔ handy draw. Minor turf/AW transfer note but Listed 2nd shows class.
  • Song Brocade – 7.5/10
    ✔ Unexposed at 12f, ✔ pace/draw fit, yard flying. Needs to prove she can run mid/high-80s again at the trip—likely.
  • Simply Ruby – 6.5/10
    ✔ Stamina, ✔ handles good and soft. ✖ Wide draw 8 and class rise are small knocks.
  • Azahara Palace – 6/10
    ✔ Trip better than 10f, ✔ workable mark on best. ✖ Inconsistent; hold-up risk if pace is steady.
  • Gangster Granny – 5/10
    ✔ Fitness/stamina, recent revival with headgear. ✖ May want further/softer; pace/setup a doubt.

“Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.”
“Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.”
“Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.”

Private Tissue (win odds, 6 runners; NRs: Perfect Your Craft, Orionis)

  • Miss Dolly Rocker 11/4
  • Harpsichord 11/4
  • Song Brocade 4/1
  • Simply Ruby 6/1
  • Azahara Palace 8/1
  • Gangster Granny 12/1

Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

This looks a track/setup race. With two likely to press and no guaranteed end-to-end gallop, tactics and draw matter. Miss Dolly Rocker ticks today’s Bath-specific boxes (low draw, sits handy, proven C&D) and is holding her form in better races. Harpsichord is the fashionable 3yo improver and could easily rate the best filly here, but she still has to do it at Bath. Song Brocade is the progressive danger at the trip with an ideal map.

Smart Play generated by Chatgpt

  • Top win bet: Miss Dolly Rocker (low draw + C&D + pace fit)
  • Saver: Song Brocade (unexposed 3yo stepping up to optimal trip from a sweet gate)

(Each-way not advised with 6 runners unless market drifts create value.)

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