Pace & Draw Angles: Likely even-to-solid pace. Style King and Sweet Sonata can go forward; Francis Drake can sit handy. Ironist and Dark Sorceress usually stalk/hold up; Rye mid-div/late. At 6f Lingfield, low draws are a plus: stalls 1-3 advantaged, 6 is a negative if pace collapses to the rail.
Strongest Contenders
- Francis Drake (Draw 3) — Progressive/Proven AW
AW winner LTO (Kempton 6f) on yard debut; earlier nose 2nd at Lingfield 7f reads well. Solid RPRs (76 twice), now up 5lb but still unexposed at 6f and well-drawn to track the speed. - Style King (Draw 2) — Promising if settling
Big figure (RPR 87) at Wolves in the spring; latest runs okay on sand tracks (RPR 80, then 73/75) despite keenness. Back to 6f, low draw, SDS booked; if he drops the bit, he’s a major player. - Sweet Sonata (Draw 4) — Proven
In form since blinkers; Goodwood win two back (79), Wind LTO a touch better than bare result (troubled late). Polytrack is fine (Kemp 78 last year). Handy style and no excuses from stall 4.
Main Dangers
- Ironist (Draw 1) — Promising
Two solid handicaps (72/76) suggest she’s ready to win one. Inside draw + Mitchell help; slight concern she can get shuffled if they quicken early. - Dark Sorceress (Draw 5) — Strong finisher / Hold-up risk
Chelmsford winner (78), ran well off 54 latest (74) after a break; light weight and will be passing horses late. Needs tempo and a gap.
Interesting Outsider
- Rye (Draw 6) — Capable but wrong set-up
Peak turf RPR 79 and Lingfield AW 72 as a juvenile, but stall 6 and modest recent figure (35) temper enthusiasm. Place squeak if breaking sharply and slotting in.
Runner Scores & Suitability
- Francis Drake — 8/10: Ideal draw/track; proven AW; should get a perfect sit behind the pace.
- Style King — 7.5/10: Big peak, loves AW; key is settling. Low draw + SDS = upgrade.
- Sweet Sonata — 7/10: Consistent since headgear; translates to Poly; pace-pressing style suits here.
- Ironist — 7/10: Draw 1 gold; figures say she’s up to this; needs clear run turning in.
- Dark Sorceress — 6.5/10: Finisher with a nice mark; luck-in-running risk but weighted to strike late.
- Rye — 5.5/10: Ability there, but wide draw and mixed form; needs everything to fall right.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Private Tissue (my prices)
- Francis Drake 11/4
- Style King 3/1
- Sweet Sonata 7/2
- Ironist 5/1
- Dark Sorceress 6/1
- Rye 10/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Even-to-strong pace with Style King/Sweet Sonata going forward and Francis Drake stalking from a sweet gate. Low-draw bias tilts the table towards stalls 1–3; closers will need luck.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top Win Bet: Francis Drake — profile peaking at 6f on AW, ideal draw, and a course marker (Lingfield 7f nose second) says this is his race shape.
- Saver: Style King — biggest top-end figure in field; if SDS gets him to relax from stall 2, he can bully this grade.
Shortlist order: Francis Drake > Style King > Sweet Sonata, with Ironist the danger if she threads the rail run.
Leave a comment