The TimeWise rating system, as detailed in the “Horse Racing Ratings Machine V2 Guide,” calculates an overall rating for each horse by considering a comprehensive array of characteristics, broken down into three main groupings: Race Score, Horse Score, and Additional Factors. They are created using the horseracebase.com rating tool.

Here’s an analysis of how various horse and race characteristics contribute to these overall rating calculations:

Race Score

This grouping focuses on factors pertaining to the individual horse race itself, which are shared by all horses competing in it:

• Quality (Class Settings): Each race in the UK/Ireland is assigned a quality score based on its class, ranging from Group or Grade 1 races down to Class 7. A higher score is generally applied to better quality brackets.
• Quality (Value Setting): This translates the prize money into a score. The winner’s prize money is divided by 1000, rounded, and then multiplied by a user-defined setting. There’s a maximum rounded value of 20 to prevent high-value races from disproportionately influencing ratings, with Class Settings handling top-tier races.
  • Example: A race worth £8,345 with a setting of 5 would be assigned a value of 40 (8 * 5).
• Competitors (Top OR Score): A figure is added to the race score by multiplying the highest Official Rating (OR) in the race by a specific setting. If no horses have an allocated OR, this score is 0.
• Competitors (Win OR Score): The race score is adjusted by adding a figure calculated by multiplying the winner’s Official Rating (OR) in the race by a specific setting.
  • Example: If the setting is 3 and the winner’s OR was 90, 270 would be added to the race score.
• Competitors (Prior Form Settings): This boosts the race score based on the previous form of the horses competing. It sums the number of wins and places of all horses in their previous race and multiplies these by separate settings for “Prior Wins” and “Prior Places”.
• Competitors (Subsequent Form Settings): Similar to Prior Form, but it counts horses that have won or placed on their next outing, multiplying these by settings for “Subsequent Win” and “Subsequent Place”.
• Race Type (Handicap (or non) Score): An adjustment can be made based on whether the race is a handicap or non-handicap. A percentage figure is applied, which can alter the rating (e.g., 100% for handicap, 90% for non-handicap).
• Race Type (Sphere Settings): Further adjustments can be made depending on the sphere of racing (e.g., Flat, Hurdle, Chase). Percentage values are applied to adjust the race score (e.g., 80% for Hurdle races). A “Like For Like” option ensures only races of the exact same sphere are included in calculations.

Horse Score

This focuses on individual characteristics of each horse within a race:

• Position (Placing): The finishing position of the horse is crucial. This can be calculated either by an exact placing percentage (e.g., 59% for first place) or by a placing ratio (considering finishing position relative to the number of runners). The system uses the first method for which settings are defined.
• Position (Non Finishers): A single overall deduction setting is applied to the race score for any horse that did not finish.
• Position (Max Distance Beaten Deduction): This setting manages deductions for distance beaten by capping the maximum amount that can be deducted, either by a percentage or a numerical value.
• Position (Distance Beaten Options): One of three methods is used for deducting points based on how far a horse was beaten:
  • Lbs/Length Scale: Multiplies the exact distance beaten by a figure dependent on the race distance (e.g., *3.5 for 5f races, *1 for 2m+ races) and deducts this from the score.
  • Exact Distance Beaten: Deducts the number of lengths the horse was beaten from the race score.
  • Personalised Percentage: Uses rule-based logic to award a percentage of the race score (e.g., 90% if beaten by less than a length, 60% if beaten by 10 lengths or less).
• Timeline (Date Score): The date of a horse’s past runs can reduce its score if the run occurred long ago. Date rules assign higher percentages to more recent races. A special “Apply Once” rule can prevent over-boosting horses with multiple recent runs.
• Timeline (Runs Ago Score): This allows treating more recent runs differently from older ones within a horse’s last 10 pieces of form, using percentage settings (e.g., last run 100%, second last 80%).
• Timeline (Inexperience Leveller): To prevent less experienced horses (who haven’t completed the maximum number of rated past runs) from being unfairly penalised, this setting uses the average score of their actual runs for the missing ones.
• Weight (Vs Top Weight Score): This adjusts the score based on the weight carried by the horse compared to the top-weighted horse in that race. The weight difference is multiplied by a setting.
• Weight (Vs Win Weight Score): An adjustment is made by comparing the weight of the winning horse to the horse being rated. The weight difference is multiplied by a setting.

Additional Factors

These encompass remaining settings not categorised above:

• Speed – Importance Settings: An automatic speed rating is generated for 18 different scenarios, focusing on races within 2 furlongs of today’s race. User-defined “importance factors” (1-10) are applied to these scenario-specific speed ratings (which are themselves derived from class, distance, going, and track averages), and then averaged to produce a final speed rating. The system gives less weighting where there is less historical data.
• Jockey/Trainer/Stallion/Horse – Strike Rate Multipliers: A bonus rating is formulated by using the strike rates of the jockey, trainer, stallion, or the horse itself in various scenarios. These strike rates are converted into a figure between 0 and 10 and then multiplied by a factor. Up to three rules can be set for the number of rides/runs to handle variations in data quantity.
• Today – Weight Score: This directly alters the overall rating based on the weight carried in today’s race. A value representing the weight difference from the top weight (e.g., 7 pounds received) is multiplied by a setting to generate a score (e.g., 42 for a setting of 6).
• VDW (VDW1 & VDW2): Multipliers can be applied based on VDW methods. VDW1 calculates an ability rating from prize money won divided by total wins. VDW2 sums the last three finishing positions (where 10th or worse counts as 10) and deducts this total from 30.
• Today – Stall: Based on statistical analysis of draw bias at certain tracks, the stall position is given a score out of 10 for benefit, which is then multiplied by a user-defined setting to provide the stall rating.

The Ratings Machine combines all these individual components to produce a total overall rating for each horse, with sub-totals available for detailed breakdown and analysis.