Executive Summary

This briefing document provides a detailed overview of the horse racing events scheduled for Friday, 5th September 2025, across four venues: Haydock, Ascot, Bangor, and Down Royal. The information is derived from race cards and spotlight analyses, offering insights into main themes, key ideas, and important facts for each race. The data includes horse details (age, past performance, weight, official rating, speed), trainer and jockey performance, going conditions, prize money, and expert verdicts.

Key Themes and Insights

General Racing Conditions

• Going: The predominant going for the Flat races is “Good” or “Soft,” with Down Royal also featuring “Good To Yielding” for Hurdle races, and Worcester having “Good To Soft” for some Chase and Hurdle events. Kempton’s races are on “Standard To Slow” All-Weather (AW) surfaces.
• Race Types: A mix of handicaps, novice stakes, maiden stakes, and chase/hurdle races are scheduled, catering to various age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo+, 5yo+).
• Prize Money: Prize money varies significantly by class and race type, ranging from £2,451 for a Class 5 National Hunt Flat Race at Worcester to £23,193 for a Class 2 Handicap at Ascot.
• Betting Market: Odds are provided for all horses, with “favourites” identified by the spotlight analyses. The fate of favourites is a recurring theme in the raceform data, indicating their success rate in past renewals of specific races.

Detailed Race Analysis by Venue

Haydock Park

• 1:32 Betfair HPR Training Series Apprentice Handicap (Class 5, 1m6½f, Good):Leading Contenders: Pergamon (4yo, 10-2tp) is the “top of the list” and “still lightly raced on the Flat,” with an “encouraging show” recently. The Crafty Mole (4yo, 10-2v) is “solid to run well and is second on the list.” Mission Possible (3yo, 9-4b1) has “blinkers, a longer trip and going handicapping” as “sources of possible improvement.”
• Going & Distance: This race involves longer distances, favouring horses with stamina. Going is Good.
• 2:07 Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Class 3, 1m, Good):Leading Contenders: Lyrics Of Life (2yo, 9-2) “brings clearly the best form today” and “gets the vote.” Legacy Link (2yo, 9-2) “could hardly have a better pedigree” and “will surely improve.” Both have Group 1 Fillies’ Mile entries.
• Newcomers: Willow Wood and Nanoscience are highlighted as “newcomers to check out.”
• 2:42 Arete Foundation Stakes Handicap (Div I) (Class 4, 5f, Good):Leading Contenders: Taygar (4yo, 9-1) is the “nap” and “ran well on fast ground at Ayr last time and this week’s rain has been a positive.” Hedge Fund (4yo, 9-9h1) is an “interesting” prospect with a new trainer. Phoenix Of Dreams (4yo, 9-9h1) is “much better than he showed last time.”
• Shortlist: Alligator Alley, Glory Fighter, and Zarzyni are on the “shortlist” due to recent good performances.
• 3:15 Arete Foundation Stakes Handicap (Div II) (Class 4, 5f, Good):Leading Contenders: Sevensees (5yo, 9-5) is preferred for “showing encouraging signs of late and could well post a bigger performance now back on an easier surface.” Corolla Point (3yo, 9-12) is a “fascinating contender” on his stable debut. Pixie Diva (3yo, 9-10) is an “unexposed 3yo” with “solid claims.”
• Going: Emphasis on easier ground conditions.
• 3:50 Tattersalls £40,000 EBF Fillies’ Novice Stakes (Class 2, 6f, Good):Leading Contenders: Karvala (2yo, 9-2) is the “preference” due to her strong pedigree (dam was 1,000 Guineas runner-up). Yorkshire Queen (2yo, 9-2) has “the best form” in the field. Vencedora (2yo, 9-2) is the “second choice” newcomer.
• Market Influence: Strong betting support for newcomers like Vencedora could be significant.
• 4:20 M Group NW Fillies’ Handicap (Class 5, 7f, Good):Leading Contenders: Spirit Of Jenny (3yo, 9-8) is “taken to get off the mark” after a “promising third on her handicap debut.” Believe In Lies (4yo, 9-6) is the “main danger.” Hilltop (4yo, 10-0) is also a strong contender.
• Unproven on Slow Ground: Several horses are “unproven on slow ground,” which could be a factor.
• 4:55 Oakmere Homes Handicap (Class 3, 7f, Good):Leading Contenders: Ata Rangi (4yo, 9-9) is preferred as he “went close in a big field at York in July when last seen and can go one better today.” Persuasion (8yo, 10-0) has a “fine record at Haydock, including a win in this race 12 months ago.” Mostar Dreams (4yo, 9-9) was “unlucky at York last time.”
• Demoted Horse: We Dare To Dream (3yo, 9-8) was “first past the post over C&D in July (demoted due to interference).”
• 5:27 Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 5, 1m3½f, Good):Leading Contenders: Rogue Sea (5yo, 10-1) is the “preference” for “showing promise at Chester.” Bondi (3yo, 9-7) is “feared most” and “more improvement is possible.” Gnomon (4yo, 10-0) “catches the eye on his handicap debut.”
• Headgear: Bondi is running in “first-time headgear.”

Ascot

• 1:45 LK Bennett Lady Amateur Jockeys Handicap (Class 4, 1m, Soft):Leading Contenders: Revich (9yo, 10-6v) “has shown enough of late to suggest he’s about to cash in on this reduced mark.” Terries Royale (5yo, 10-5) is a “leading contender if primed for this first start in 333 days.” Shaladar (6yo, 9-9b) is the “second choice” and “sure to make his presence felt.”
• Past Performance: Terries Royale won this race last year, beating Shaladar.
• Jockey: Serena Brotherton is highlighted for her partnership with Terries Royale.
• 2:20 Charbonnel et Walker British EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 3, 7f, Soft):Leading Contenders: Raaheeb (2yo, 9-7) is the “preference” due to his exceptional pedigree (brother to Baaeed and Hukum) and holds a Group 2 entry. Norman Invasion (2yo, 9-7) and Behike (2yo, 9-7) “command the utmost respect on sales price alone.”
• Debutante Race: Focus on well-bred newcomers and market support.
• 2:55 Wesco Anixter EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 4, 1m, Soft):Leading Contenders: Maneuver (2yo, 9-2) “holds the best chance” with a Fillies’ Mile entry. Too Hot To Tango (2yo, 9-2) is the “second choice” with “improvement on the cards.” El Vamos (2yo, 9-2) is an “interesting newcomer.”
• Sales Price: Maneuver cost 600,000gns as a yearling.
• 3:30 Juddmonte British EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 2, 6f, Soft):Leading Contenders: Watcha Snoop (2yo, 9-5) gets the “narrow vote” and is “open to progress.” Hungarian (2yo, 9-5) “helps to set the standard” and “seemed to run very well.”
• Gelded Horse: Hvar is “already gelded.”
• 4:05 Molton Brown Classified Stakes (Class 3, 7f, Soft):Leading Contenders: Lord Bertie (5yo, 9-9h) is favoured to “return to form with conditions in his favour” and won this race last year. Fine Interview (4yo, 9-9) and Fondo Blanco (3yo, 9-5) are “fellow soft-ground scorers.”
• Trainer Insight: “Trainer (W-R) H Al Jehani 50%” and “J Osborne 27%” are listed for horses in this race.
• 4:40 Ascot Iron Stand Membership Handicap (Class 2, 1m, Soft):Leading Contenders: High Degree (3yo, 8-11) makes “most appeal among his peers” due to potential improvement and soft-ground dam. Ebt’s Guard (4yo, 9-9) is the “second choice” and “continues to progress.” Grey’s Monument (5yo, 10-0) tends to “do his best work around this point of the season.”
• Large Field: Noted as “a race that traditionally attracts a single-figure field but it’s caught a whopper this time round.”
• Trainer Record: William Haggas has a 67% run-to-form rate in the last 14 days.
• 5:15 Sodexo Live! Handicap (Class 4, 7f, Soft):Leading Contenders: Sea Suite (3yo, 8-8) is the “nap” due to being “ahead of the assessor” and “faced with a suitably testing scenario.” Law Of Design (3yo, 9-3b) is “interesting off a reduced mark.” Tactical Plan (3yo, 9-0) has a “very solid record on soft/heavy.”
• Ground Conditions: Several horses noted for strong performance on soft/heavy ground.

Bangor

• 1:55 Louise Gorton 50th Birthday Novices’ Hurdle (Class 4, 2m3½f, Good):Leading Contenders: No clear spotlight verdict provided, but Intosomethinggood (4yo, 11-9) has two recent wins, and Queensworthy (5yo, 11-0) has a strong win/place record.
• GBB Race: Indicates eligibility for Great British Bonus.
• 2:30 Archway Homes Malpas Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m3½f, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Buxted Reel (6yo, 11-7) and Independent Jimmy (6yo, 11-7) have high “Total” scores. Baikal (6yo, 11-4) recently won.
• Trainer Form: Donald McCain has a 100% run-to-form rate in the last 14 days.
• 3:05 Breeze Capital Handicap Chase (Class 4, 2m4½f, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Magistrato (7yo, 11-6) and Northern Bound (11yo, 12-0) have high “Total” scores and recent wins/places.
• Trainer Record: Ben Pauling and Dan Skelton both have winning favourites in this race’s history.
• 3:40 Wrexham Lager Handicap Chase (Class 2, 3m, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Pull Again Green (9yo, 12-0) and Presentandcounting (11yo, 11-5) have recent wins and high “Total” scores.
• GBB Race: Another Great British Bonus eligible race.
• 4:10 Genesis Wealth Management Novices Limited Handicap Hurdle (Class 5, 2m½f, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Monticello (5yo, 11-8) has two recent wins and a high “Total” score. Guillaume (8yo, 11-1) also has strong recent form.
• 4:45 Paul Ferguson Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle (Class 3, 2m7f, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Matchless (7yo, 11-6) and Supreme Yeats (9yo, 10-11) have recent wins and high “Total” scores.
• Going: Good ground for this longer hurdle race.

Down Royal

• 4:15 Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Class 5, 5f, Good):Leading Contenders: Killourney Reigns (2yo, 9-2t1) is the “main opportunity” and “sets the standard on form.” The Right One (2yo, 8-9) is the “main threat if she takes her chance.” Baker Blue (2yo, 9-4p1) and Bad Boy Rizz (2yo, 9-2t) have “shown ability.”
• Headgear: Baker Blue with first-time cheekpieces; Killourney Reigns with first-time tongue-tie; A La Dure with first-time cheekpieces.
• 4:50 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden (Class 3, 5f, Good):Leading Contenders: Shadow Of The Moon (3yo, 9-3) is the “nap” and “the one to beat.” Sci Fi (3yo, 9-3) and Arklow Lad (3yo, 9-8t1) are strong contenders.
• Speedily Bred: Shadow Of The Moon is noted as “speedily bred.”
• 5:22 Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden (Class 4, 7f, Good):Leading Contenders: Lucia Molly (2yo, 8-10) is “preferred” for “proven herself on soft ground at Galway” and “should relish the return to seven furlongs.” Eleven A (2yo, 9-9) “may be capable of reversing” previous form. Pliny (2yo, 9-3) did best among those who met previously.
• Trainer Record: Miss N Lupini and Joseph Patrick O’Brien have good winning records for this race in previous years.
• 5:54 Grant Thornton Nursery Handicap (Class 4, 7f, Good):Leading Contenders: Gas Works Wall (2yo, 8-13p) is favoured after her “promising handicap debut.” Believe In Glory (2yo, 9-2t) and Cisterna (2yo, 9-5) “look like they may improve for 7f.” Quinn’s Charm (2yo, 9-2t) will “appreciate the recent rain.”
• Weight/Handicapping: Minimum weight of 8-7, with penalties for races won.
• 6:24 Grant Thornton Ulster Cesarewitch Handicap (Class 4, 2m2½f, Good):Leading Contenders: Billie Frechette (4yo, 9-2t) is a “very strong contender” and “progressive over hurdles since.” Sir Callisto (5yo, 9-13t) “looks to have been targeted at this.” Empress Alma (4yo, 9-4) and Grappa Nonino (6yo, 9-7p) have “strong claims.”
• Trainer Record: Noel Meade has an “excellent recent record in this race.”
• 6:54 Children’s Heartbeat Trust Apprentice Handicap (Class 4, 1m2½f, Good):Leading Contenders: Areana (6yo, 9-7b) is favoured to “follow up a recent win.” God Knows (6yo, 9-8) won this in 2023. Ohmali (3yo, 8-10) and the Ado McGuinness-trained pair Doctor Grace (5yo, 10-0p) and Dancing Steve (4yo, 9-13v) are “likely dangers.”
• Apprentice Jockeys: Designated for female amateur jockeys in the Ascot 1:45 race and apprentice jockeys for this race.
• 7:24 Grant Thornton Handicap (Class 4, 1m5f, Good):Leading Contenders: Mischief Man (3yo, 9-4tb1) “could be the one to side with here” after an “improved showing.” Maxwell Smart (4yo, 9-9), Gallo Dell Cielo (5yo, 9-10b) and Share The Treasure (4yo, 9-4) are “likely dangers.”
• Handicap Debut: Mischief Man showed “mild promise in maidens.”

Kempton (All-Weather)

• 5:47 Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Class 4, 7f, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Yazin (2yo, 9-7) is favoured, taking “the eye on pedigree” and “trainer is 5-8 with juveniles on AW this year.” Look To The Stars (2yo, 9-7) is the “form choice.” Golden Conqueror (2yo, 9-7) and Joulany (2yo, 9-7) are “interesting newcomers.”
• AW Debut: Several horses making their AW debut.
• 6:17 Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (Class 4, 1m, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Birnbeck (2yo, 9-7) is favoured as a debutant “better berthed in stall 4, has winners in his pedigree and his trainer can get one ready first time.” Parole Officer (2yo, 9-5) is the “form choice” and “should go well.” A Taste Of Glory (2yo, 9-5) is a “Royal Lodge entry.”
• 6:47 Irish EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 4, 1m, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Bella’s Path (3yo, 9-2h) is favoured to win. Crystal Dagger (3yo, 9-2) and Great Mates (3yo, 9-2) also have strong claims.
• Headgear: Bella’s Path ran in a hood on debut, Glistening with headgear fitted.
• 7:17 Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap (Class 4, 1m, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Wicked (3yo, 9-9b1) is favoured, having “excuses for his last two runs.” Best Rate (3yo, 9-8) is “3lb well in.” Aspull (3yo, 9-7) is “interesting over a trip he should stay on this handicap debut.”
• 7:47 Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap (Class 4, 7f, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Al Khawssaa (4yo, 9-8h) is favoured, “posted her best effort on only her second run in handicap company.” Signcastle City (5yo, 9-6) and Chalk Mountain (5yo, 9-3t) are strong contenders.
• Headgear: Al Khawssaa with first-time hood.
• 8:17 Unibet 40,000+ Live Streamed Events Handicap (Class 5, 6f, Standard To Slow):Leading Contenders: Dapper Valley (4yo, 9-7p) is the “nap” and “should be ready to take advantage of a favourable mark.” Hierarchy (6yo, 9-9tb) has a “solid C&D record.” Arnaz (4yo, 9-9t) also “makes some appeal.”
• Jockey Changes: Kaiya Fraser (2:07 Haydock), William Maggs (2:30 Bangor, 3:40 Bangor), Billy Loughnane (2:55 Ascot, 4:05 Ascot, 4:40 Ascot, 5:15 Ascot, 6:47 Kempton, 7:17 Kempton), Alexandra Egan (1:32 Haydock), Jamie Powell (4:15 Down Royal, 5:54 Down Royal, 6:17 Kempton), James Ryan (4:15 Down Royal, 5:22 Down Royal, 7:24 Down Royal), Jessica O’Gorman (6:24 Down Royal, 6:54 Down Royal), Ethan Tindall (1:32 Haydock), Jack Kearney (5:54 Down Royal, 6:24 Down Royal), Wesley Joyce (4:15 Down Royal, 4:50 Down Royal, 5:22 Down Royal, 5:54 Down Royal, 7:24 Down Royal), Owen Lewis (2:55 Ascot), Robbie Colgan (4:15 Down Royal, 4:50 Down Royal, 7:24 Down Royal), George Wood (2:42 Haydock, 5:27 Haydock).

Worcester

• 4:25 Step Into Luxury With Purple Granite Handicap Chase (Class 5, 2m½f, Good To Soft):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Traveling Soldier (7yo, 11-7) and Auntie Maggie (6yo, 12-0) have high “Total” scores and recent wins/places. Hobie (8yo, 11-8) recently won.
• 5:00 Kevin And Bernies Silver Wedding Anniversary Handicap Chase (Class 4, 2m7f, Good):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Almazhar Garde (10yo, 11-10) and Harrys Hope (7yo, 11-4) have high “Total” scores and recent wins.
• 5:30 Trevor Thompson Completes All UK Racecourses Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class 5, 2m, Good To Soft):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Usyk (4yo, 11-0) and Saxon Cross (5yo, 11-2) have recent places and high “Total” scores.
• 6:00 Frank, Stas And Russ 60th Birthday Mares’ Maiden Hurdle (Class 4, 2m, Good To Soft):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Garde My Guinness (5yo, 11-4) has recent places and a high “Total” score. Window Of Time (4yo, 11-2) also shows good recent form.
• 6:30 Scaffolding MDS Handicap Hurdle (Class 4, 2m4f, Good To Soft):Leading Contenders: No spotlight verdict provided. Sixty Plus (5yo, 11-8) has several recent wins and a high “Total” score. Castel Gandolfo (8yo, 12-0) also has recent strong form.

Ratings Machine V2 Guide: Key Concepts

The “Horse Racing Ratings Machine V2 Guide” outlines a sophisticated system for creating and analysing horse racing ratings. Key takeaways include:

• Customisable Ratings: The machine allows for the creation of personalised ratings based on individual preferences regarding “factors of relevance.”
• Step-by-Step Platform: Provides a structured approach to setting preferences for rating calculations.
• HRB Example Set: Offers a starting point for members but advises caution, as a general set may not cover all race criteria effectively. Specific race types and detailed settings are recommended for better accuracy.
• Backdating and Testing: Powerful function to “tweak ratings to suit the circumstances and test as you go,” either for individual race results or “mass backtesting the last 500 races.”
• Rating Groupings: Ratings are broken into three main categories:
• Race Score: Factors shared by all competitors in a race (e.g., prize money, class, type of contest).
• Quality (Class/Value): Assigns scores based on race class (Group 1 to Class 7) and prize money. Maximum rounded value for prize money is 20 to prevent high-value races from dominating ratings.
• Competitors (Top/Win OR, Prior/Subsequent Form): Boosts scores based on the highest Official Rating (OR) in the race, the winner’s OR, and the number of wins/places of all horses in their prior and subsequent races.
• Race Type (Handicap/Non-Handicap, Sphere): Adjustments based on whether the race is a handicap and the sphere of racing (e.g., Flat vs. National Hunt). “Like For Like” setting ensures only same-sphere races are evaluated.
• Horse Score: Individual characteristics of each horse.
• Position: Vital significance of finishing position, calculated either by “exact placing” or “placing ratio.” Deductions for “distance beaten” can be calculated using “Lbs/Length Scale,” “Exact Dist Bt,” or “Personalised Percentage.” “Non Finishers” receive an overall deduction. “Max Distance Beaten Deduction” can cap the deduction.
• Timeline (Date/Runs Ago/Inexperience Leveller): Adjusts scores based on how recent a run was, the number of runs ago, and a mechanism to level the playing field for less experienced horses.
• Weight: Adjustments based on the horse’s weight compared to the top-weighted horse and the winner.
• Additional Factors: Remaining settings, including:
• Speed – Importance Settings: Calculates a speed rating based on various scenarios (class, distance, going, track) within 2 furlongs of today’s race. Importance factors (1-10) are applied to different speed rating components.
• Jockey/Trainer/Stallion/Horse – Strike Rate Multipliers: Formulates a bonus rating (0-10) using strike rates, with up to three rules to account for the number of rides/runs.
• Today – Weight Score: Alters overall rating based on weight carried in today’s race.
• VDW Methods: Includes VDW1 (ability rating based on prize money/wins) and VDW2 (last three finishing positions).
• Today – Stall: Accounts for statistical bias based on draw at certain tracks, providing a benefit score out of 10.
• Layout and Breakdowns: Ratings are displayed with sub-totals and an overall rating, sortable by column. Hover-over descriptions provide clarity.

Conclusion

The racing on Friday, 5th September 2025, presents a diverse and competitive schedule across multiple tracks. Expert analysis highlights several key contenders and factors such as ground conditions, trainer/jockey form, and pedigree play crucial roles in determining potential outcomes. The underlying “Ratings Machine V2 Guide” illustrates the complexity and customisability inherent in modern horse racing analysis, emphasising that detailed, specific settings are likely to yield more effective ratings than generalised approaches. Punters are encouraged to consider these detailed insights alongside their own preferences to make informed decisions.