16:30 York — Sky Bet Starman Garrowby Stakes (Listed), 6f, Good
Pace: Even-to-solid. Prominent racers generally favoured here.
Draw: Historically favours low—stalls 1–3 get first run if they break. Tactically this leans towards the low-drawn pace/pressers; high/wide speed will need an efficient early move.
Pace & Draw Angles (today)
Likely pace: LETHAL LEVI (can boss it despite middle/high), CRESTOFDISTINCTION (low/mid, helps), PRINCE OF INDIA (low, stalk/press—ideal).
Style mismatches: ALMERAQ can be ridden colder and may need a split/track a path; even pace slightly dulls his turn of foot vs on-speed types.
Low draw tailwind: PRINCE OF INDIA (1), ELMONJED (2).
Contenders
Proven = established at/above this level; p = progressive; P = promising/unexposed
Top 3
ALMERAQ (Haggas) – 3yo – 123p – Promising (P)
Ayr romp (18r h’cap) screams Listed-class already; big RPR-style leap, strong trainer form. Minor tactical/track position risk if ridden for one run, but he’s the most likely to be better than these today.
LETHAL LEVI (Burke) – Proven
Won a Newmarket Listed beating ELMONJED by 2½l. Usually makes it; even/solid gallop and “prominent favoured” angle help. Slight draw/lead-clash risk but rock-solid.
PRINCE OF INDIA (Botti) – 3yo – p
Rapidly progressive sprinter; Ascot + Newmarket 6f h’cap wins were legit; low draw + sits handy = sweet setup up in class. Has to bridge to Listed standards but profile says “still improving”.
Dangers / Place Players
ELMONJED (Haggas) – Proven (CD winner): Dependable at York, just outgunned by LL last time; low draw is a plus.
KASSAYA (Balding) – 3yo – p: Best work late at Chester in a race not run to suit; up to 6f on a fair track could unlock more. Wide draw/track position is the query.
ROYAL ZABEEL – street-tough: Swinger/place type at a price; current form fine, 6f OK, but high draw/pace map not ideal.
Opposables / Need a lot to drop right
CRESTOFDISTINCTION (front-runner; class rise and turf question at this level).
TIGER BAY (off-song since spring Listed win; needs a revival).
PELLITORY (useful, but 6f on a speed-favouring strip looks sharp; often slow away).
Runner Scores (suitability today)
Almeraq – 8.5/10 (P): Best raw ability/progression; small “hold-up risk” if gaps don’t appear.
Lethal Levi – 8/10 (Proven): Recent Listed winner; pace angle positive; draw not perfect.
Prince of India – 7.5/10 (p): Low draw + prominent style = big tick; needs a Listed-level figure.
Elmonjed – 7/10 (Proven): C&D comfort, honest; ceiling just below top two on latest evidence.
Kassaya – 6.5/10 (p): Still unexposed at 6f; if they overdo it up front she’s interesting late.
Royal Zabeel – 6/10: Reliable, can lay up; wrong side of draw on paper.
Crestofdistinction – 5.5/10: Pace positive; class/ground depth the questions.
Tiger Bay – 5/10: Needs bounce back.
Pellitory – 4.5/10: Set-up/tempo against.
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (9 runners)
Prince of India (EW) – low draw, prominent, thriving—very solid place claims.
Backup EW/Place: Elmonjed (C&D, low) if 6/1+ is available.
Private Tissue (my fair odds)
Almeraq 9/4 (2.25)
Lethal Levi 3/1 (3.0)
Prince of India 9/2 (5.5)
Elmonjed 13/2 (7.5)
Kassaya 14/1 (15.0)
Royal Zabeel 16/1 (17.0)
Crestofdistinction 20/1 (21.0)
Tiger Bay 25/1 (26.0)
Pellitory 33/1 (34.0)
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Even pace that still rewards handy/low. LETHAL LEVI is the ready-made Listed yardstick, but ALMERAQ has the higher ceiling and can outclass them if he secures a reasonable slot behind the speed. PRINCE OF INDIA is the draw/pace sweet-spot improver.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
Top win bet: ALMERAQ (class edge; “P” profile; Haggas hot).
Each-way saver: PRINCE OF INDIA (low draw + prominent + thriving).
Exacta cover: ALMERAQ / LETHAL LEVI (ability + pace map).