3:25 Longchamp – Qatar Prix Vermeille (G1) – 1m4f (2400m), Soft, 3yo+ fillies & mares

Pace & Draw Angles

• Likely pace: Even to slightly muddling. No out-and-out tearaway on paper; Whirl can sit handy/lead, Aventure typically tracks, Gezora stalks. With two Ballydoyle runners, a controlled tempo is possible.
• Tactical edge: Prominent racers could boss this if they steady it mid-race. Hold-up types risk trouble in the false straight.
• Draw: Small field over the Arc trip = minor draw effect. Inside (1–2) is a small plus into the first turn but ring-fenced by field size.

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Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders

Proven / Progressive / Promising tags:

• Whirl – Proven (p): Middle-distance surge this year; G1 10f wins and neck 2nd in the Oaks (12f, GS). Soft is fine; needs to show she’s equally potent at 12f on soft combined. Peak RPR tops the field.
• Aventure – Proven: Runner-up in this and the Arc last year (soft/heavy autumn form). Back from a Saint-Cloud 2nd that’s been strongly franked; wants some ease and has today’s test absolutely in her wheelhouse.
• Gezora – Promising (P): Diane winner; strong turn of foot, handles testing ground, pedigree (Almanzor) says 12f should be well within reach. Unexposed at the trip—upside danger.
• Survie – Progressive (p): C&D G2 winner last year, honest at 10–10.5f this season and shaped like 12f soft can help. A place sneaks into view if they go even.
• Bedtime Story – Capable: Diane 2nd is high class, but 12f on soft is a live stamina query; also held by Survie on the Deauville Romanet line.
• Ginalyah – Exposed at this level: Likeable, but well up against it on ratings and depth.

Hold-up risk: Any rider who delays the challenge into the false straight may need luck; Aventure/ Gezora usually well-positioned, Whirl typically avoids traffic by racing handy.

Trainer/Trends snippet: Graffard has won this twice since 2017 (boosts Gezora’s claims). Ballydoyle (two runners) may try to control fractions around Whirl.

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Runner Scores & Suitability (out of 10)

• Aventure – 9/10 (Proven)
  Soft ground ✔; stamina at 12f ✔ (ran 2nd in this & the Arc). Versatile tactically. Ready-made autumn filly.
• Whirl – 8.5/10 (Proven, p)
  Highest RPR; heavy 10f winner and top at 12f on good/GS. Combo test (12f+soft) is the only unanswered. If she handles it, she’s the form pick.
• Gezora – 8/10 (Promising, P)
  Diane winner on GS; pedigree screams 12f; soft OK as a juvenile. If she stays strongly, she can outfinish them.
• Survie – 7/10 (Progressive, p)
  C&D G2 winner; back up to best trip; ground fine. Form says a solid place chance if the big three underperform.
• Bedtime Story – 6/10 (Capable)
  Classy at 10–10.5f; softer 12f is a query. Needs everything to fall right.
• Ginalyah – 3/10 (Exposed)
  Honest G3 filly; lacks the tools at this level.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters/middles returning quickly; they can be hot.

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Private Tissue (Raceform Data)

• Whirl 7/4 (36%)
• Aventure 5/2 (29%)
• Gezora 10/3 (23%)
• Survie 10/1 (9%)
• Bedtime Story 14/1 (6%)
• Ginalyah 66/1 (2%)

Red/Blue team view (who can actually win?):
Win Likely: Whirl, Aventure, Gezora.
Place/pace nuisances: Survie (credible), Bedtime Story (if stays), Ginalyah (unlikely).

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Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

• Race complexion: Small field, tactical. If they crawl then quicken, class closers with track position win it; if honest, proven 12f soft stamina matters most.
• Form weights: Whirl has the top peak RPR, but the 12f+soft combo remains an acid test. Aventure is the most bombproof for conditions and course configuration. Gezora is the upside filly stepping to 12f with the right profile.

Smart Play generated by Chatgpt

• Top win bet: Aventure – proven 12f in the Longchamp autumn, soft ground specialist tendencies, rock-solid seasonal markers.
• Saver (win): Whirl – best raw form this year; wins if she reproduces peak at this exact test.
• Value nibble: Gezora – Diane winner with 12f upside; very fair if market underestimates the step up.

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.