4:50 Galway – Deacy Gilligan Hurdle (4yo+), 2m5f129y, Yielding (soft likely in places)

Pace & Track Angles

• Likely pace: Even-to-solid. Busselton and Custom Taylor can be handy/press; HMS Seahorse and Yeats Star sit close to the leaders; Run For Oscar/Lord Erskine/Brazil more patient.
• Galway nuance: Undulating, turning, short run-in – prominent/track-positioned runners often favoured if the pace isn’t overly strong. Hold-up types will need an uninterrupted swing for home.

Contenders (Proven / Progressive / Promising)

Strongest contenders

• Yeats Star (G Elliott) – Progressive (p)
  RPRs 151/148 over hurdles; best with ease; recent spin over fences (likely needed) and now back to a more suitable test. Stays this trip, handles soft, top yard in form.
• HMS Seahorse (P Nolan) – Proven
  144 recent RPR when bolting up at Clonmel in blinkers; fell early over fences last time but hurdles win two starts back reads very well at 2m4f. Ground versatile; track suits.
• Custom Taylor (D Queally) – Progressive (p)
  On the up with 130/134 RPRs; first-time visor sparked improvement and he backed it up in a Listed novice handicap (handicaps don’t trigger the penalty, so only +6lb for the maiden win). Stays strongly; fitness the question after a break.

Main dangers

• Run For Oscar (C Byrnes) – Proven
  Classy stayer; 150/143 hurdles RPRs last season. Needed the recent Killarney run after 314 days off; better on decent ground but handles yielding – fitter now.
• Busselton (J P O’Brien) – Proven
  Primarily a chaser (Kerry National winner); 148 hurdles RPR earlier this year suggests the ability is intact. Fitness a query off a break; usually effective when prominent.

Interesting outsiders

• Brazil – Regressive
  2022 Fred Winter winner but unreliable since; 133 latest hurdles RPR at best and stamina okay, but he needs a revival.
• Lord Erskine – Exposed
  Admirable veteran, big Fairyhouse win (RPR 145) at 2m; this longer trip stretches him at Galway and he was well beaten in this last year.

Runner Scores /10 (suitability today)

• Yeats Star: 8/10 – Trip/ground/yard strong; recent run should bring him forward. (p)
• HMS Seahorse: 7/10 – Class edge if none the worse for Wexford fall; blinkers effective.
• Custom Taylor: 7.5/10 – Upward curve, well within himself at 2m5½f; fitness the sole niggle. (p)
• Run For Oscar: 6.5/10 – Big peak ratings; fitter 2nd up; slight preference for better ground.
• Busselton: 6.5/10 – Solid ability; freshness/fitness the unknown at this trip over hurdles.
• Brazil: 5/10 – Talent there but profile cold; needs a jolt back to form.
• Lord Erskine: 4.5/10 – In form but 2m5½f here looks a stretch.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.

Private Tissue (my prices)

• Yeats Star 5/2 (28%)
• Custom Taylor 3/1 (22%)
• HMS Seahorse 4/1 (20%)
• Run For Oscar 15/2 (12%)
• Busselton 9/1 (10%)
• Brazil 20/1 (5%)
• Lord Erskine 33/1 (3%)

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

A clean, even pace should let class and tractability tell on the climb to the line. Yeats Star has the best blend of recent form at the right trip, ground preference, and yard momentum, with a tactically handy style for Galway. Custom Taylor is the solid improver if fit; HMS Seahorse is the class danger if the Wexford spill left no mark.

Smart Play generated by Chatgpt

• Top win bet: Yeats Star
• Win saver: Custom Taylor

Reasoning: Yeats Star’s 151/148 hurdles peaks align with today’s ease in the ground and the track’s demand for balance and stamina; Elliott’s recent strike-rate adds confidence. Custom Taylor brings the most convincing upward RPR trend and only a single (maiden) penalty applies; he stays strongly and has a “p” profile.