Here is an analysis of the TimeWise top two rated horses for each race at Carlisle, presented in chronological order, along with an assessment drawing on all available source information:

4.15 LPD Doors – Expect More EBF Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (Bands B, C And D)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Isle Of Fernandez (Tdy Total: 260)
  2. Vega’s Virtue (Tdy Total: 222)
• Assessment for Isle Of Fernandez:
  • Isle Of Fernandez (2yo, 9-0) is the highest TimeWise rated horse in this race. She showed promise in her initial two starts, notably finishing second out of 13 in a valuable maiden at Goodwood (7f, heavy) in July, a race where the form subsequently worked out well. However, she was well held in the Convivial Maiden at York (7f, good to firm; 50-1) 18 days ago. The spotlight verdict indicates this race should be “much easier” for her and presents a “good opportunity” to win. Her trainer, K A Ryan, has a 47% strike rate of runners performing to form in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Tom Eaves and has an official rating (OR) of 84.
• Assessment for Vega’s Virtue:
  • Vega’s Virtue (2yo, 9-0) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. She finished well held on her Beverley debut (5f, good to firm; 150-1) last month, but significantly improved to finish a staying-on fifth of nine at Ripon (6f, good) 11 days later. The spotlight suggests she has “each-way claims if taking another step forward” and she is the third choice in the verdict. Her trainer, T Easterby, also runs Only Dream Big and has a 50% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Ryan Sexton.

4.45 Quooker Tap – Does It All Nursery Handicap (Jockey Club Grassroots Nursery Series Qualifier)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Baggot Street (Tdy Total: 230)
  2. Rum Therapy (Tdy Total: 227)
• Assessment for Baggot Street:
  • Baggot Street (2yo, 9-5p1) is the top TimeWise rated horse here. This daughter of Oasis Dream is a reliable sort, having posted a solid fourth in a 7f Wolverhampton nursery three weeks ago. She is equipped with cheekpieces for this race. Her trainer, Charlie Johnston, boasts a 71% success rate with runners performing to form in the last 14 days. The spotlight verdict notes she will be “in the mix once more” with the added headgear and is on the shortlist. She is ridden by Jack Mitchell and has an OR of 65.
• Assessment for Rum Therapy:
  • Rum Therapy (2yo, 9-3) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. She advanced her form on her nursery debut by winning at Beverley (5f) 26 days ago. Although she carries a 2lb penalty, the spotlight verdict considers her the “second choice” and expects her to “go well again”. Her trainer, T Easterby, has a 50% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Duran Fentiman and has an OR of 63.

5.15 Jigtech Change Handicap (Class 6)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Ideal Guest (Tdy Total: 222)
  2. Giselles Izzy (Tdy Total: 213)
• Assessment for Ideal Guest:
  • Ideal Guest (6yo, 9-8p) holds the highest TimeWise rating in this field. He is currently on a losing streak and finished a below-par fifth of eight in a 7f Brighton handicap 34 days ago. He will be running in refitted cheekpieces, and “more is needed” for him to feature. His trainer, H Bethell, has a 75% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. He is ridden by Aiden Brookes (3) and has an OR of 57.
• Assessment for Giselles Izzy:
  • Giselles Izzy (6yo, 9-6) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. She scored at Ayr (7f) in June and has maintained good form, recently placing third out of nine in a 6f handicap at Hamilton six days ago. The spotlight verdict suggests she “ought to be thereabouts once more” and lists her as the second choice. Her trainer, I Jardine, has a 33% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Andrew Mullen and has an OR of 55.

5.45 Quickstep Floor Designer Supporting Andersons Handicap (Class 6)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Chief Of State (Tdy Total: 249)
  2. Maris Angel (Tdy Total: 246)
• Assessment for Chief Of State:
  • Chief Of State (4yo, 9-6tv) is the top TimeWise rated horse for this race. He was a comfortable winner in a C&D handicap (good) last week, despite drifting in the closing stages. He is considered “low mileage and still looks feasibly weighted under a penalty”, although he will contend with slower ground today. The spotlight verdict highlights him as capable of better. His trainer, B Haslam, has a 57% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. He is ridden by Callum Rodriguez and has an OR of 57.
• Assessment for Maris Angel:
  • Maris Angel (4yo, 9-13) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. She has been in good form, winning two 5f handicaps last September and recently securing an easy win at Wolverhampton last week, suggesting she is “ahead of her mark under a penalty”. However, the spotlight notes she “could probably do with the ground drying out” as she has “more to prove on ground slower than good”. Her trainer, F McSharry, has a 33% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Ryan Sexton and has an OR of 64.

6.15 Andersons – Quality For The Home Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Sound Janet (Tdy Total: 265)
  2. Thosewerethedays (Tdy Total: 252)
• Assessment for Sound Janet:
  • Sound Janet (3yo, 9-2) is the highest TimeWise rated horse. She demonstrated “much-improved form” when finishing second in a Goodwood handicap (1m4f, good) 18 days ago, appearing the likely winner until being collared near the finish. The spotlight verdict states she “has the best form on show here and will take plenty of beating,” being favored to “get off the mark”. Her trainer, R Varian, has a high 77% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Jack Mitchell and has an OR of 77.
• Assessment for Thosewerethedays:
  • Thosewerethedays (3yo, 9-7) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. He made an “encouraging third” behind two Gosden-trained horses at Windsor (1m2f, good) last month after a seven-month break. He is expected to be “suited by the step up in trip” and is considered one of the “likelier ones,” listed as the second choice in the spotlight verdict. His trainer, R Beckett, has a 57% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. He is ridden by Callum Rodriguez and has an OR of 82.

6.45 Hoover Handicap (Class 5)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. Lunanova (Tdy Total: 265)
  2. Hostelry (Tdy Total: 257)
• Assessment for Lunanova:
  • Lunanova (3yo, 9-5h) is the top TimeWise rated horse. She is described as a “progressive 3yo filly” who has been “in such fine form at Brighton lately”. However, the spotlight verdict cautions that “she needs to prove she can handle this very different track”. Her trainer, Dr R Newland & J Insole, has a 54% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Paul Mulrennan and has an OR of 64.
• Assessment for Hostelry:
  • Hostelry (8yo, 10-0p) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. She has an excellent record at this course and distance (C&D), winning twice over C&D, including this race two years ago and again last month (off the same mark). The spotlight explicitly states that handling the track is “certainly not the case with HOSTELRY” and she is highly recommended, ahead of Lunanova in the verdict. Her trainer, Mrs R Carr, has a 58% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. She is ridden by Kaiya Fraser and has an OR of 68.

7.15 Deanta Fire Door Handicap (Class 5)

• TimeWise Top Two:
  1. One Night Thunder (Tdy Total: 278)
  2. Green Pursuit (Tdy Total: 258)
• Assessment for One Night Thunder:
  • One Night Thunder (5yo, 10-0h) is the top TimeWise rated horse. He took advantage of a plummeting handicap mark to secure his first turf success over C&D (good) eight days ago. He “won with a bit in hand” and is considered likely to “defy a 5lb penalty before being reassessed”. The spotlight verdict marks him as the “nap” (top selection) for the race. His trainer, G Tutty, has an impressive 88% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. He is ridden by Kaiya Fraser and has an OR of 75.
• Assessment for Green Pursuit:
  • Green Pursuit (3yo, 9-9tp1) is the second highest TimeWise rated horse. He broke his maiden at Catterick (6f, good) in April and has maintained his form, although he is 6lb higher for that sole win. He will run with a first-time tongue-tie in addition to previously-worn cheekpieces, and it is felt there “may be more left in the locker”, giving him “place claims”. His trainer, A Keatley, has a 50% success rate with runners in the last 14 days. He is ridden by Oisin McSweeney and has an OR of 74.