Briefing Analysis & Key Highlights

1. Market Themes – Movers & Drifters

• Biggest Market Supporters
  • 5.40 Nautic Star: Backed 9.5 → 4.0 (huge plunge, standout bet in Fillies’ Maiden).
  • 6.10 Starting Monday: 13.0 → 7.0 (strong confidence in handicap).
  • 6.10 Linger For Longer: 34.0 → 15.0 (gamble horse).
  • 5.10 Multiple movers: Rosato, Irish Rumour, Likedbymike, Pinar Del Rio, Tai Tam Bay all strongly supported.
  • 7.10 Loingseoir: 12.0 → 9.0 (well handicapped, conditions to suit).
  • 7.10 Toy Soldier: 19.0 → 13.0 (trainer angle).
• Notable Drifters
  • 4.40 Strike Zone: 1.8 → 2.38 (despite being “spotlight” pick, clear market doubts).
  • 5.40 Josh’s Joy: 2.0 → 2.38 (the nap – small drift).
  • 6.10 Robs Umbrella: 19.0 → 34.0 (market cooling).
  • 7.10 Zaraahmando: 7.5 → 10.0 (stall 17 a worry).
  • Others: Amenita, Burford Beauty, Draiocht drifting.

🔑 Implication:
Markets are siding with value alternatives (Nautic Star, Loingseoir, Starting Monday) while showing doubt on some favourites (Strike Zone, Josh’s Joy).

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2. Non-Runners – Race Shaping Factors

• 5.10 Handicap: Key withdrawals – Send Harry (spotlight pick), Jon Riggens, Imperial Dream. → Race wide open now.
• 6.10 Handicap: Yaxchilan out (seen as major danger). → Distillate & market movers (Starting Monday, Linger For Longer) boosted.
• 6.40 Maiden: Ben Lawers out (removes one danger).
• 7.10 Handicap: Green Icon & Sister Lily out – slightly easier field.

🔑 Implication:
Scratches have weakened some races, making handicaps more unpredictable but boosting prospects of supported runners.

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3. Spotlight Verdicts – Key Picks

• 4.10 – Soy El Fuego (TT fitted), Rosie Frith solid, Listentodwindblow newcomer to note.
• 4.40 – Strike Zone (fav but drifting), danger Charles Fort.
• 5.10 – Originally Send Harry, but now Colter Bay, Dontspoilasale, Likedbymike, Kilmood Susan look best placed.
• 5.40 – Josh’s Joy (nap), but Nautic Star the big mover.
• 6.10 – Distillate preferred, last year’s winner type.
• 6.40 – Hellorhighwater (strong form, versatile ground).
• 7.10 – Loingseoir (well handicapped, rain helps), Toy Soldier an interesting recruit.

🔑 Implication:
Best “spotlight” confidence = Josh’s Joy (nap), but market favours Nautic Star.
Handicaps (5.10, 6.10, 7.10) = highly fluid due to non-runners + gambles.

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4. Trainer/Jockey Angles

• Big yards (O’Brien, Lyons, Weld) all showing strong strike-rates.
• M Ahern runners (5.10, 7.10) flagged as weak (0% recent record).

🔑 Implication:
Trainer form favours sticking with top yards in maidens & conditions races.

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5. Ratings Summary (RPR / Topspeed)

• Soy El Fuego (4.10) – Top speed + HRB #1.
• Strike Zone (4.40) – Top RPR/Speed, but drifting.
• Josh’s Joy (5.40) – Highest RPR.
• Nautic Star (5.40) – Highest Topspeed + backed.
• Distillate (6.10) – Well-in vs last year’s mark.
• Hellorhighwater (6.40) – Consistent high ratings.
• Loingseoir (7.10) – Well-handicapped on ratings.

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🎯 Key Betting Themes

1. Big Market Plays – Nautic Star (5.40), Loingseoir (7.10), Starting Monday/Linger For Longer (6.10).
2. Caution Flags – Strike Zone (fav but drifting), Josh’s Joy (nap but slight drift).
3. Race Shaped by Non-Runners – 5.10 wide open, 6.10 weaker with Yaxchilan out.
4. Trainer/Jockey Trust – O’Brien, Lyons, Weld solid; Ahern’s runners weaker.

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✅ Executive Takeaway:

• Maidens: Soy El Fuego (4.10), Nautic Star vs Josh’s Joy (5.40), Hellorhighwater (6.40) hold strongest claims.
• Handicaps: 5.10 unpredictable (look for movers like Likedbymike, Kilmood Susan); 6.10 favours Distillate but market siding with Starting Monday; 7.10 Loingseoir looks best handicapped.
• Market vs Spotlight tension: Best to balance expert verdicts with clear betting signals (Nautic Star > Josh’s Joy; Loingseoir > Burford Beauty).