13:15 Doncaster — 1m (Straight) PJ Towey Construction Handicap (Class 2) — Going: Good — Stalls: Centre
Pace & Draw
- Likely pace: Even-to-solid. Urban Sprawl (1) and Great Chieftain (4) are the most natural pace/pressers from low; Point Of Contact (2) can sit handy; most of the closers (e.g. Cash (10), Bopedro (3)) are mid/high.
- Draw view: With stalls centre on the straight mile and no strong, baked-in bias on good, I’m marking draw neutral. Slight edge low if the low cluster gets rolling (Urban Sprawl / Great Chieftain / Point Of Contact).
Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders
Treble Tee (P) — Promising 3yo, thriving post ops; two smart seconds (Thirsk/Goo) suggest a big one is imminent. Handles some cut, good ground no issue; strong yard/jockey in form.
Hawksbill (p) — Solid recent seconds at 7.5f/1m; cheekpieces seemed to help; consistent RPRs and profile screams “ready to win.”
Point Of Contact (p) — Reliable 3yo with York Ebor week form; travels handy (ideal for this straight-track set-up).
Great Chieftain (p) — Forgive latest fresh run; prior wins stack up, progressive profile; big player if he gets a rhythm from low.
Main dangers: Bopedro (exposed but ran 2nd in this last year; place angle), Cash (classy, but now top weight on handicap debut — needs a strong pace + Spencer timing).
Interesting outsiders: Atlantic Gamble (p) — figures say he’s coming back, but usually wants softer than good; Principality (p) — talent there, but the start is a risk.
Runner Scores /10 (suitability snapshot)
- Treble Tee (P) — 8.5/10: Unexposed, upward RPR trend, strong yard/jock; gets a good tow; profile screams “win soon”.
- Hawksbill (p) — 8/10: Recent seconds stack up; cheekpieces working; just needs to convert.
- Point Of Contact (p) — 7.5/10: Solid 3yo handicap credentials, handy style fits race shape.
- Great Chieftain (p) — 7.5/10: Progressive overall, draw/pace OK; minor fitness query already priced.
- Bopedro — 7/10: Place regular, ran well in this in 2024; win record thin but very solid each-way frame.
- Cash — 6.5/10: Class edge on best; handicap debut/top weight/hold-up on a fair pace = threading the needle.
- Atlantic Gamble (p) — 6.5/10: Back on the boil but would prefer softer; still capable of outrunning odds.
- Supido — 6/10: Britannia run was good; needs to bounce back; slight stamina/power finish query late on.
- Galeron — 6/10: Well-handicapped on old peaks; recent form a bit flat; place squeak if bouncing back.
- Principality (p) — 6/10: Goodwood win reads well; the stalls issue is real — risky but talented.
- Urban Sprawl — 5.5/10: Honest pace angle up two grades; depth of field likely finds him late.
- Wild Nature (P) — 5.5/10: New yard, unexposed 3yo with time off; potential to step forward but trust needed.
- Isla Kai — 5/10: Big layoff to recent run; needs more now; past course record is the hook.
- Tolstoy — 4.5/10: In-and-out and better at York; headgear refit a shot in the dark.
- Father Of Jazz — 3.5/10: Needs to prove Flat ability remains at this level after hurdles/absence.
Notes:
- Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days (e.g. Wild Nature).
- Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot. (Less relevant here but still a useful race-day angle.)
- Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Each-Way Angles (15 runners — EW 1/5 1-4 typical)
- Bopedro — ultra-reliable at this level, ran 2nd in this race last year; frame player again.
- Great Chieftain — forgiving the comeback, his 2025 wins say he fits C2; drawn to get a tow behind Urban Sprawl.
- Atlantic Gamble — figures rising, but ground ideally softer; still a live EW if the price is right.
Private Tissue (my prices)
- Treble Tee 7/2
- Hawksbill 6/1
- Point Of Contact 7/1
- Great Chieftain 8/1
- Bopedro 10/1
- Cash 12/1
- Atlantic Gamble 14/1
- Supido 16/1
- Galeron 16/1
- Principality 18/1
- Urban Sprawl 20/1
- Wild Nature 22/1
- Isla Kai 28/1
- Tolstoy 33/1
- Father Of Jazz 66/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Straight mile, even pace likely with Urban Sprawl and Great Chieftain setting it up for the progressive/Promising 3yos. Form and profiles point to Treble Tee getting his day; Hawksbill and Point Of Contact rate the main threats. Bopedro is a sturdy place play; Cash needs the red-carpet ride under top weight.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Treble Tee (P) — progressive 3yo with the best recent handicap form/sectional profile; ideal set-up.
- Each-way saver: Bopedro — solid in big fields, proven in this race, high RPR ceiling for a place.
(Secondary win dart if you want two bullets: Hawksbill (p) — knocking loudly, strong recent figures.)
13:50 Doncaster — 7f Betfred Champagne Stakes (G2, 2yo colts & geldings) — Going: Good — Stalls: Centre
Pace & Draw
- Likely pace: Even-to-solid. Gewan has raced handily and can control/track the speed; Oxagon was dominant at Sandown and can sit right there; Puerto Rico (up to 7f) stalks; Cape Orator tends to be held up/creeping into it; Cape Ashizuri a later closer last time.
- Draw: Small field, straight 7f on good = neutral. Tactical positioning > stall.
Contenders (Proven / Progressive / Promising)
- Oxagon (P) — Promising Frankel colt. Newmarket maiden has worked out, then 8l Sandown 7f romp with smart closing fractions; has size/scope to kick on. Profile screams G2-type.
- Gewan (Proven) — Group 3 Acomb winner, professional and straightforward; sat close and won decisively at York. Sets a high, reliable bar at 7f on good/gf.
- Cape Orator (P) — Promising and progressive; bolted up in a valuable Deauville conditions (6½f, soft). Pedigree/physique suggest 7f ideal; may be even better with a bit of ease but track/ground fine.
- Puerto Rico (p) — Battle-hardened at 6f, twice G2-placed; shaped like 7f will help. Just needs to find a couple of pounds to trouble the top two.
- Cape Ashizuri (p) — Nice Ayr debut winner (beat subsequent winners), but this is a steep rise; useful, may be outgunned at this level right now.
Runner Scores /10 (suitability + today’s setup)
- Oxagon (P) — 8.5/10: Huge Sandown visual/sectional upgrade; strong maiden context; Oisin in form; tactical speed for this small field.
- Gewan (Proven) — 8/10: Rock-solid G3 yardstick at the trip; uncomplicated; high floor, slight ceiling question vs Oxagon’s potential.
- Cape Orator (P) — 7.5/10: Sharp upward curve; 7f should suit; softer might be optimal but still very live.
- Puerto Rico (p) — 7/10: Tough and improving; extra furlong helps; might still meet two classier improvers.
- Cape Ashizuri (p) — 5.5/10: Likeable debut; needs a big leap to mix it with these.
Notes:
- “Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.” (Relevant to lightly raced improvers stepping into Group class.)
- Keep an eye on tactics — a steady first half could magnify turn-of-foot advantage (helps Oxagon/Cape Orator).
Private Tissue (my odds)
- Oxagon 6/4
- Gewan 2/1
- Cape Orator 9/2
- Puerto Rico 8/1
- Cape Ashizuri 25/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Top two set the standard from different angles: Gewan brings the proven 7f G3 form and professionalism; Oxagon arrives with stronger upside signals (deep maiden, big Sandown figure/finish). With a small field and tactical race likely, the nod goes to the colt with the higher ceiling.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Oxagon (P) — explosive Sandown win, powerful profile to bridge to G2.
- Saver (win): Gewan (Proven) — bulletproof Acomb winner; if Oxagon doesn’t lift again, he’s the one.
(If seeking a price play underneath in exactas/tricasts: Cape Orator to split or follow the front two.)
2:05 Chester — 1m4½f Virgin Bet Stand Cup (Listed, 3yo+) — Going: Good — Stalls: Inside
Pace & Draw
- Likely pace: Solid/contested. Grey Cuban (1) is a natural front-runner round here; Mount Atlas (6) can go forward; Champagne Prince (2) has led on the AW. Military Academy (5) sits handy; Hamish (2) usually ridden cold; Sir Dinadan (4) can be prominent.
- Draw: Inside is gold at Chester. Grey Cuban (1) gets the rail advantage if he stays the trip. Small field blunts the draw edge a touch but not entirely.
Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Outsiders
Military Academy (Proven) — Peak turf run when neck second to Hamish at level weights (Goodwood, 1m4f, soft). No penalty today (last Listed win was 2024), so better off 3lb vs Hamish who does carry a 3lb Listed penalty. Handles handy sit in a tactical race; very solid claims.
Hamish (Proven, class) — Grand old pro, multiple G3s, twice Ormonde winner here. But: all turf runs for six years on softer than good; this is good ground and he’s 97 days off with a 3lb penalty. Still the class act, yet a couple of setup negatives.
Sir Dinadan (Promising 3yo) — Irish Derby 5th (RPR 112) is strong. Back down in class, gets 8lb WFA; Goodwood washout a forgive. Trip/track fine if he travels and keeps position.
Mount Atlas (p) — Progressive overall and tidy Ascot win (1m4f) but bombed at York (front-running blamed). Draw 6 is not ideal here; needs a clean break and rhythm.
Grey Cuban (Course horse) — Big C form at 10.5f making all; stamina at 12.5f the question. From stall 1 he’s dangerous if allowed soft fractions, but this looks deeper.
Champagne Prince — Smart on AW; turf record thin for this grade.
Runner Scores /10 (suitability today)
- Military Academy — 8/10: Weight terms vs Hamish swing his way; tactically versatile; recent enough.
- Hamish — 7.5/10: Best horse, best RPRs — but ground/penalty/layoff are real knocks.
- Sir Dinadan (P) — 7.5/10: 3yo with peak that puts him right in this; forgiving latest; needs to back up Curragh run.
- Mount Atlas — 6.5/10: On the up overall; wide draw + recent blip temper confidence.
- Grey Cuban — 6/10: Rail + pace = respect; stamina/grade the doubts.
- Champagne Prince — 5/10: Classy AW profile; turf ceiling likely below what’s needed.
Notes:
- Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days — Hamish fits.
- Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot. (General angle; less relevant here.)
- Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Private Tissue (my odds)
- Military Academy 2/1
- Hamish 9/4
- Sir Dinadan 7/2
- Mount Atlas 6/1
- Grey Cuban 10/1
- Champagne Prince 20/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Tactical 1m4½f around the Roodee: Grey Cuban likely drags them along from stall 1, but class sits with Hamish and the weight/shape of the race leans to Military Academy. On good ground, with Hamish carrying a 3lb penalty and returning 97 days off, the swing favours Military Academy to turn Goodwood form. Sir Dinadan is the 3yo wild card dropping from Group 1 — big chance to run these close if reproducing the Curragh peak.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Military Academy — better terms vs Hamish, tractable style for Chester, solid Listed/G3-level efforts this season.
- Saver (win): Sir Dinadan — 3yo WFA, strong Irish Derby marker, class drop could spark a step forward.
(Respect Hamish on talent, but the setup says oppose at short odds.)
2:25 Doncaster — 5f143y Betfred Portland Handicap (Class 2 Heritage, 3yo+, 22r) — Going: Good — Stalls: Centre
Pace & Draw
- Field size (22) guarantees a strong early pace.
- Front-runners/pace angles: Eternal Sunshine (in form, likes to blaze), Rosario (if he breaks), Rhythm N Hooves, Trefor can all be handy.
- Draw: Historically winners come from all areas, but with stalls centre and this field likely splitting, it should be honest across track. Positioning/tracking the right group more important than stall number.
Leading Contenders
Air Force One (P) — Rapidly progressive this summer. Excellent York efforts (3rd in big field, then 2nd by a neck last week). First-time blinkers + bottom-weight type profile → major player.
Addison Grey (P) — Three wins from last five, including “greys’ race” at Newmarket (6f). Lightly raced, unexposed 3yo sprinter from Clive Cox yard that does well here. 5lb rise looks fair.
Trefor (p) — Really likeable improver, York winner in a deep 20-runner handicap last time (beat Air Force One). Reliable, straightforward, and goes well on fast ground.
Jakajaro (p) — Much higher strike rate of placings than wins, but his third in the Stewards’ Cup and third at Ascot 5f show he’s holding form in top sprints. First-time cheekpieces could squeeze out extra.
Jordan Electrics — 9yo but York Ebor 5th (beaten a length) suggests he’s still lively. Trainer excels in this race (won 2 of last 3).
Rosario (p) — Can blow the start, but if sharp away, he’s got finishing power and has course form (Flying Childers 3rd at 2yo).
Interesting Outsiders
Fivethousandtoone — Smart AW this year, shaped better than bare result when 6th in Great St Wilfrid (troubled passage). If bringing that form to turf, he’s overpriced.
Eternal Sunshine (P) — Hot streak with two Thirsk wins, rising fast, loves to force it. Has momentum, though now in deeper waters.
Diablo Rojo (P) — 3yo with G3 Ascot 2nd behind subsequent Sprint Cup winner Big Mojo. Excuse in G1. Still unexposed, possible big-run angle at price.
Runner Scores /10
- Air Force One (P) — 8.5/10: Consistent upward curve, well treated, blinkers could unlock more.
- Addison Grey (P) — 8/10: Rapid progress, only lightly raced, 5lb hike still fair.
- Trefor (p) — 8/10: Form horse of the moment, strong York win, course winner.
- Jakajaro (p) — 7.5/10: Reliable placer, cheekpieces an interesting tweak.
- Jordan Electrics — 7/10: Veteran but York run shows fire still burns; trainer target.
- Rosario (p) — 7/10: Needs a start, but has the finishing kick.
- Fivethousandtoone — 7/10: More on AW, but lively outsider profile.
- Eternal Sunshine (P) — 7/10: On the crest of a wave, rising fast, still has something to prove at this level.
- Diablo Rojo (P) — 6.5/10: Classy early season G3 form, not dismissed.
Others: competitive place chances but rated lower.
Private Tissue (my odds)
- Air Force One 5/1
- Trefor 6/1
- Addison Grey 7/1
- Jakajaro 9/1
- Jordan Electrics 12/1
- Rosario 12/1
- Fivethousandtoone 14/1
- Eternal Sunshine 14/1
- Diablo Rojo 16/1
- Bar 20/1+
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
A deep, classic Portland with pace assured and multiple improvers. The progressive 3yos (Addison Grey, Diablo Rojo, Air Force One) add spice to seasoned handicappers. Air Force One looks the right profile — in form, unexposed, close-up in strong York races, and first-time blinkers a positive. Trefor is rock solid, Addison Grey the class improver, and Jakajaro could easily sneak into the frame again.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Air Force One (P) — on the upgrade, close to breaking through, first-time blinkers may be the catalyst.
- Each-way saver: Jakajaro (p) — ultra-consistent in top fields, cheekpieces might turn near-misses into a big prize.
- Value outsider: Fivethousandtoone — overpriced if AW form translates; shaped as if better to come on turf last time.
Would you like me to build you a shortlist grid (form vs profile vs draw vs pace) for the Portland, so you can visualise where the strongest clusters are?
2:40 Chester — 2m (1m7f196y) Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Watergate Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap, 3yo+, 12r) — Going: Good — Stalls: Inside
Pace & Draw
- Chester dynamics: tight turns, 2m start soon into the first bend → early position vital.
- Likely pace: Youthful King and Sheradann can race prominently; Artisan Dancer and Spirit Mixer usually wait for cover.
- Inside draws: massive help over staying trips. Horses from stalls 1–4 usually find the best track position; those drawn widest (10–12) need to be ridden for luck.
Leading Contenders
Artisan Dancer (p) — Super consistent; string of seconds in strong handicaps (York, Southwell, Ascot). Almost won here in May (Chester Plate 3rd). Well treated off same mark, ideal set-up if he gets breaks.
Ndaawi (P) — Top-class hurdler (County Hurdle & Galway Hurdle placed/winner). Flat record mixed but not disgraced at Ascot 2024 in marathon trip. Very interesting switch back to the Flat from Elliott, still unexposed over 2m.
Spirit Mixer — Last year’s winner of this race (by a nose) and took the Northumberland Plate in June. Not quite peak 2022 level but loves C&D, comes alive here.
Sheradann — Finally broke through in Britain with Southwell AW win (beat Artisan Dancer). Solid profile this summer, but has to back it up switching back to turf.
Gibside — Won Chester Plate in May; York run last week looked a needed comeback. Record at Chester excellent (2 from 2 in frame). Dangerous if sharper.
Interesting Outsiders
Tribal Star (p) — Strong AW credentials (Dundalk win, close 4th in Northumberland Plate). Turf runs weaker but not ruled out if translating form.
Youthful King — Useful on fast ground at 1m6f (Sandown win), less effective at 2m+. Hood helps settle; place squeak if stamina holds.
Zoffee — Chester Cup specialist but recent form suggests decline; may find this too sharp nowadays.
Runner Scores /10
- Artisan Dancer (p) — 8.5/10: Ultra-reliable, knocking hard, well handicapped.
- Ndaawi (P) — 8/10: Class angle, hurdling star, potential improver if adapting.
- Spirit Mixer — 8/10: Loves Chester, last year’s winner, still competitive.
- Sheradann — 7.5/10: Solid AW win, less convincing turf but not dismissed.
- Gibside — 7/10: Course winner, could bounce back fitter.
- Tribal Star (p) — 6.5/10: AW strong, turf poor, risky.
- Youthful King — 6/10: Question over trip, useful otherwise.
- Prydwen — 5.5/10: Has old class, but heart issue + modest runs since a worry.
- Yashin — 5/10: G3 winner this spring, but tailed off badly in big races.
- Sixpack — 5/10: May bounce back from heavy-ground flop; not fully proven.
- Zoffee — 4.5/10: Reliable Chester Cup runner but looks regressive.
- Torcello — 3/10: 11yo, wants soft/heavy, unlikely.
Private Tissue (my odds)
- Artisan Dancer 4/1
- Ndaawi 5/1
- Spirit Mixer 6/1
- Sheradann 8/1
- Gibside 10/1
- Tribal Star 14/1
- Youthful King 16/1
- Prydwen 20/1
- Zoffee 25/1
- Yashin 25/1
- Sixpack 25/1
- Torcello 50/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
This Watergate Cup looks a proper test of staying consistency vs new angles. Chester’s quirks make track specialists (Spirit Mixer, Gibside) dangerous, but Artisan Dancer has been banging the door down in big handicaps all summer and deserves one to fall his way. Ndaawi is the X-factor: a top hurdler back on the Flat, still open to big improvement at this trip.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Artisan Dancer (p) — consistent, ready-made for this, unlucky not to have landed one already.
- Saver bet: Ndaawi (P) — hurdling class could translate into a big Flat prize.
- Each-way outsider: Gibside — C&D Plate winner, fitter for York return, overlooked at prices.
Would you like me to map out a likely pace shape (front-runners vs hold-ups by stall) to show who might get trapped wide or enjoy the golden Chester rail run?
3:00 Doncaster — 7f Betfred Park Stakes (G2, 3yo+) — Going: Good — Stalls: Centre
Pace & Draw
- Likely pace: Quinault most likely to lead; Audience can be handy; Room Service/Marvelman stalk; Ten Bob Tony and Shadow Of Light typically sit and pounce.
- Draw: Small field, straight 7f on good = neutral. Tactics > stall.
Contenders (Proven / Progressive / Promising)
- Shadow Of Light (Proven, 3yo WFA) — Champion 2yo; G1 3rd in Guineas; ran well in Commonwealth Cup and Jean Prat. Drops from G1s to G2 with 4lb WFA. Handles good but a touch of cut is a plus. Class act; the one to beat.
- Ten Bob Tony (p) — Gelded and posted a career-best winning the John of Gaunt (G3, 7f) on good. Lightly campaigned, fresh is a positive; ground fine. Genuine G2 claims if stepping forward again.
- Room Service (P) — 2-2 at Doncaster (inc. Listed). Best 2025 figure when 2nd to Quinault (G3) at 7f. First-time headgear could eke improvement; track angle strong.
- Marvelman (p) — Turf 0-7, but Hungerford G2 3rd last time is proper 7f form. Knocking on the door; profiles like a G2 placer with a chance to nick it if pace collapses.
- King’s Gamble (p) — Disappointed in Hungerford; first-time headgear now. Earlier G3 second points to ability; rebound chance, but a little to prove.
- Quinault (Proven) — Made all in York G3 (7f). Below par in G1 since; if gifted a soft lead, can stretch them, but this is deeper test late.
- Audience — On old form would be right there (Lockinge/Lennox last year) but current form patchy; needs revival.
- East Hampton (p) — Irish raider; penultimate G2 second behind Diego Velazquez reads well. Needs that very best again.
- Zoum Zoum/Devil’s Point/Zabeel Alkabeir — More to find (Devil’s Point fitness/ground, Zoum Zoum class, Zabeel huge class hike on 2nd start).
Runner Scores /10 (today’s suitability)
- Shadow Of Light — 8.5/10: Class edge, ideal trip, drops in grade, 3yo WFA.
- Ten Bob Tony (p) — 8/10: Peak recent G3; still upside at 7f.
- Room Service (P) — 7.5/10: Donny specialist, headgear angle, solid G3 marker.
- Marvelman (p) — 7.5/10: Hungerford third puts him in this; turf hoodoo is the niggle.
- King’s Gamble (p) — 6.5/10: Talented; needs headgear bounce.
- Quinault — 6.5/10: Dangerous if soft lead; otherwise place.
- East Hampton (p) — 6/10: One big spike; needs repeat.
- Audience — 5.5/10: Classy back catalogue; current dip.
- Zoum Zoum — 5/10
- Devil’s Point — 4.5/10 (fitness/ground)
- Zabeel Alkabeir — 3.5/10 (raw, massive rise)
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days (e.g. Devil’s Point).
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start (Zabeel Alkabeir).
Private Tissue
- Shadow Of Light 7/4
- Ten Bob Tony 7/2
- Room Service 5/1
- Marvelman 7/1
- King’s Gamble 8/1
- Quinault 12/1
- East Hampton 14/1
- Audience 16/1
- Zoum Zoum 25/1
- Devil’s Point 33/1
- Zabeel Alkabeir 66/1
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Class drop + WFA makes Shadow Of Light the rightful favourite; his G1 foundation at 7f towers over these if he turns up near best. Ten Bob Tony is the solid danger after that Haydock G3 and could still be improving. Room Service has a potent Doncaster angle and first-time headgear; he’s the value to upset or fill the exacta. Marvelman is a fair-priced place player off the Hungerford run.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Shadow Of Light — G1 colt in a G2, perfect trip, WFA aid.
- Saver (win): Ten Bob Tony (p) — peak 7f G3, fresh and progressive.
- Value each-way: Room Service (P) — 2-2 at track, headgear now, live to topple the front two.
3:40 Doncaster – Betfred St Leger (G1), 1m6½f, 3yo, going: Good to Soft, stalls: inside
Pace & draw
Gallop could be even rather than fierce: Lambourn can make the running or sit handy, Scandinavia usually presses, Stay True was forward in the Voltigeur, while Carmers and Furthur are stronger finishers. Inside stalls are handy on Doncaster’s round course when the early tempo isn’t searching, but the long straight ensures a fair test overall.
Strongest contenders
Scandinavia (p)
Improved sharply since cheekpieces applied – wide trip in the Queen’s Vase but stayed on strongly; then routed a G3 at Newmarket before outbattling older horses in the Goodwood Cup (2m). Brings the most convincing staying credentials in the race. Ground no issue.
Lambourn (Proven)
Dual Derby winner (Epsom & Curragh). His Voltigeur fifth was underwhelming but looked a prep run, with his trainer targeting this race since midsummer. Pedigree and manner of Derby wins suggest 1m6½f is within range. Class act, but stamina at this level still to be proven.
Carmers (p)
Won the Queen’s Vase (1m6f, G2) at Ascot, confirming stamina. In the Voltigeur (1m4f) he was outpaced when the sprint began but rallied late to snatch second – that’s an upgrade because the race didn’t suit him and he finished powerfully. The step back up to this trip is a major plus and he’s the main threat to Ballydoyle’s squad.
Main dangers
Stay True (P)
Lightly raced, just three starts. Excellent effort in the Voltigeur when briefly leading before being collared late; finished just behind Carmers. Huge upside but stamina not as assured as Scandinavia/Carmers.
Furthur (p)
Second in the Queen’s Vase, then flopped at Newmarket, but bounced back to win the Geoffrey Freer (G3, 13.5f). Needs another step up, and best form is on quicker ground.
Interesting outsiders
Rahiebb (p) – Strong-finishing third in the Queen’s Vase; forgive his Goodwood run in a storm. Still learning and could sneak a place if things fall right.
Tarriance (P) – Game Melrose winner, progressive handicapper, but faces a big leap in class.
Runner scores /10
- Scandinavia: 9/10 – Strongest staying form, peaking at the right time.
- Lambourn: 8.5/10 – Derby class, but stamina has to be proven.
- Carmers: 8/10 – Queen’s Vase win + Voltigeur upgrade; step up ideal.
- Stay True: 7.5/10 – Exciting and unexposed; stamina the only doubt.
- Furthur: 7/10 – Honest improver, but less solid than principals.
- Rahiebb: 6/10 – Place claims if resuming progress.
- Tarriance: 5.5/10 – Progressive but class ceiling likely exposed.
Private tissue (Raceform Data)
- Scandinavia 7/4
- Lambourn 11/4
- Carmers 9/2
- Stay True 7/1
- Furthur 10/1
- Rahiebb 25/1
- Tarriance 33/1
Race complexion
This year’s Leger sets up as O’Brien’s team vs the best of the rest. Scandinavia looks the most reliable stayer and the right favourite. Lambourn is the class horse but has stamina to prove, while Carmers is the danger from outside Ballydoyle, his Queen’s Vase win and Voltigeur finish both pointing to this longer trip bringing more improvement. Stay True is the dark horse, still learning but capable of a big run if he stays.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
- Top win bet: Scandinavia – clear staying profile, peak figures, tactical versatility.
- Win saver: Carmers – Queen’s Vase form + Voltigeur upgrade, strong case as the main “non-O’Brien” challenger.
TimeWise Chronicles 
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