Thirsk; Here is an analysis of the Master Top Two rated horses in each Thirsk race, based on TimeWise ratings:

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All Thirsk races are displayed in chronological order.


2.20 Happy Birthday Dave Bramley Apprentice Handicap (Class 6)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Max Of Stars (226)
    2. Lady Phoebe (220)
  • Max Of Stars (5yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Max Of Stars has won six of her 20 races over hurdles, with her latest win in July at Newton Abbot (2m1f, good). Her Flat record is 0-8, and her last Flat run was a sixth-place finish in a Catterick handicap (1m4f, good to firm) after a wind operation. She performs best on good or fast ground.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She has a good record over hurdles and has had a recent wind operation.
      • Weaknesses: She is unproven on the Flat, having yet to win in eight attempts. Her best performances are on good/fast ground, which may or may not align with today’s “Good” going, especially if it eases.
      • Suitability: Her Flat form is a concern, and her suitability largely depends on how well she adapts to the Flat and today’s ground conditions.
  • Lady Phoebe (4yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Lady Phoebe broke her maiden on her 18th Flat run, winning in first-time blinkers at Musselburgh (1m5f, good) last month. She followed this with a fair third-place finish in the same headgear at Hamilton (1m4f, good). For today’s race, cheekpieces have been reapplied.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She is in good recent form, showing progression with a win and a third-place finish. Her trainer, A Nicol, has a 50% run-to-form rate in the last 14 days. The distance and ground seem suitable.
      • Weaknesses: The change from blinkers to cheekpieces could be a factor, as new headgear can sometimes alter performance.
      • Suitability: She looks like a strong contender given her recent form and suitability to the conditions. The “Spotlight Verdict” suggests she “could fill the places”.

2.50 Patrick Hibbert-Foy Memorial Nursery Handicap (Class 6)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Rum Therapy (239)
    2. King Victorious (227)
  • Rum Therapy (2yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Rum Therapy has shown significant improvement since entering nurseries, winning a 5f event at Beverley last month, and then securing a close second-place finish at Carlisle (6f, good to soft) last week. She typically leads.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She is a progressive filly with solid recent form, including a win and a runner-up finish. She has shown capability on good to soft ground, which provides flexibility if the going changes.
      • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned in the sources. She was beaten by Maasai Mata on earlier Beverley form, though.
      • Suitability: She is a leading contender and the “Spotlight Verdict” backs her to confirm placings with Maasai Mata, making her the top choice.
  • King Victorious (2yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: King Victorious has not finished closer than 8 lengths to the winner in his three novice runs (6f/7f; good or faster). He was sent off as the 6-4 favourite for his second run, suggesting he is “evidently well regarded.” He is now handicapping for the first time, with a tongue-tie applied and having been gelded. He typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: His previous favouritism indicates potential, and the switch to handicapping with new headgear (tongue-tie) and gelding could unlock significant improvement. His trainer, G Boughey, has an excellent 89% run-to-form rate.
      • Weaknesses: His novice form has been modest, and he is unproven in handicaps.
      • Suitability: He is an interesting prospect with potential for improvement on his nursery debut. The “Spotlight Verdict” identifies him as having “a bit of potential” moving into nurseries.

3.20 British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (Class 4)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Sovereign Wealth (265)
    2. North Force (241)
  • Sovereign Wealth (2yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Sovereign Wealth showed promise on his Epsom debut in July but failed to build on that performance in subsequent runs at Beverley (7f/7.4f; both good to firm). He typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: He displayed early promise on debut, and it is still early in his career for further development. His trainer, G Boughey, has an 89% run-to-form rate.
      • Weaknesses: He has not progressed as expected in his recent outings. He will need to show more, especially if the ground is softer than good to firm.
      • Suitability: His potential is there, but he needs to overcome recent inconsistencies and adapt to potentially slower ground.
  • North Force (2yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: North Force is by Frankel out of a Group 2 winner, boasting a strong pedigree. He kept on steadily for third on his Doncaster debut (6f, good) in July.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: His strong pedigree suggests he should be well-suited by today’s longer trip (7f). He demonstrated a good finishing effort on debut.
      • Weaknesses: He is still a maiden and has limited racecourse experience.
      • Suitability: He is considered a leading contender due to his breeding and expected benefit from the increased distance. The “Spotlight Verdict” highlights him as the preferred choice, expecting him to “take a good step forward over today’s extra furlong”.

3.50 Sapphire Selling Handicap (Class 6)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. B Associates (249)
    2. Hockney (242)
  • B Associates (5yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: B Associates has won two 7f classified events last month and has finished runner-up in his last two completed starts. However, he unseated his rider early at Chester on Friday.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: He has been in good form recently, with multiple wins and places.
      • Weaknesses: The unseating incident on Friday is a significant concern regarding his reliability and current well-being. He is also described as “hardly an unknown quantity,” suggesting his form might be fully exposed.
      • Suitability: He has each-way claims based on his past form, but the recent unseating incident adds a notable element of risk to his chances.
  • Hockney (3yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Hockney underwent a wind operation before his handicap debut last week at Lingfield (6f, AW), resulting in a “transformation” and an emphatic win by over 5 lengths, easing down at the finish. He was well-backed in the market. He typically leads.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: His last win was dominant and suggests he is currently “miles in front of the handicapper.” He carries a 6lb penalty but is still considered well-in.
      • Weaknesses: His previous win was on AW, and he needs to prove he is equally effective on turf. The fact he is entered in a selling handicap is “disconcerting”.
      • Suitability: Despite the surface change and class drop, he is considered “hard to oppose” by the “Spotlight Verdict” due to his impressive last performance.

4.20 decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap (Class 5)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Mamma Maria (272)
    2. Me Tarzan (264)
  • Mamma Maria (3yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Mamma Maria won on her seasonal return in August (1m, good), despite racing freely. She was first past the post at Salisbury 17 days ago but was subsequently demoted for interfering with another horse. She typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She has been in excellent form this year, winning both her starts (despite the demotion). A small rise in the weights is not expected to hinder her significantly. Her trainer, W Haggas, has a 65% run-to-form rate.
      • Weaknesses: Her tendency to race freely and the demotion for interference indicate potential behavioral issues.
      • Suitability: She is a strong contender and is expected to be “in the thick of it again” according to the “Spotlight Verdict”.
  • Me Tarzan (3yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Me Tarzan achieved two easy 7f wins in May/June. His revised handicap mark has not seemed beyond him, and he ran a close race at Kempton (7f, AW) four weeks ago. He is fitted with a visor. He typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: He has shown clear improvement, especially since being fitted with a visor. He is competitive off his current mark. His trainer, J Fanshawe, has a 74% run-to-form rate.
      • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned in the sources.
      • Suitability: He is tipped by the “Spotlight Verdict” to record a third win this year, as he “still looks to be improving”.

4.50 Geoff Scott 70th Birthday Celebration Fillies’ Handicap (Class 5)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Day Of Grace (258)
    2. Ravishing Beauty (257)
  • Day Of Grace (3yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Day Of Grace has shown a “similar level of form” in her three novice/maiden runs (7f-8.3f). Her pedigree “strongly suggests there should be more to come,” and she represents a top stable. She is making her handicap debut.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She possesses a strong pedigree indicating untapped potential, especially on her handicap debut. Her trainer, W Haggas, has a 65% run-to-form rate and a good record with 2yos at Thirsk.
      • Weaknesses: She needs significant improvement to win on her handicap debut, and her prior runs were in novice/maiden company.
      • Suitability: She is considered the “one with most potential upside” and the “Spotlight Verdict” names her as the NAP, expecting a “marked step forward”.
  • Ravishing Beauty (4yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Ravishing Beauty has “flourished” since the addition of cheekpieces, achieving two wins and three second-place finishes from five starts with the aids. She typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: She is consistent and performs well with her headgear, showing a good level of form. She should deliver a good performance again.
      • Weaknesses: She may be “vulnerable to the 3yos” in the race, as she is an older horse in a mixed-age handicap.
      • Suitability: She is a strong contender and the “Spotlight Verdict” expects her to “give another good account”.

5.20 Bowel Cancer Screening Programme Saves Lives Handicap (Class 5)

  • Top Two Master Rated Horses (TimeWise):
    1. Al Muqdad (256)
    2. Travis (235)
  • Al Muqdad (5yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Al Muqdad has not been performing at his best this season but is now well-handicapped and showed a good return to form with a fourth-place finish at Doncaster (7f, good) in July. He is eased in grade and has a good draw.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: He is well-handicapped and showed recent encouraging signs. The drop in class and favorable draw are positives. His trainer, D O’Meara, has a 57% run-to-form rate.
      • Weaknesses: His overall form this season has been inconsistent. The “forecast rain” is a worry, as he “will have something to prove if the ground softens”.
      • Suitability: He is poised to perform well if the ground remains suitable, but slower conditions would be a concern. The “Spotlight Verdict” notes his readiness but highlights the ground concern.
  • Travis (4yo)
    • Recent Form & Comments: Travis achieved a narrow win over C&D (good) in July and has maintained good form since, including a close second when stepped up to 1m at Ripon. He typically presses leaders.
    • Chances in Today’s Race:
      • Strengths: He is a C&D winner and has shown consistent good form recently.
      • Weaknesses: He “holds no secrets from the handicapper” suggesting his mark is reflective of his ability. He is also “drawn wide”.
      • Suitability: He is a solid contender, but the wide draw and lack of hidden potential may limit his chances against others with more upside.

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