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1.45 Ayr – Almins Vantage/Lallemand Magniva Classic EBF Novice Stakes (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Mr Colonel (IRE) – Total: 264
2. Sea The Power (FR) – Total: 248

Recent Form and Comments:

• Mr Colonel (IRE) (Age: 2): In his last race (LR), he achieved a rating of 72. This Frankel colt made a pleasing debut, finishing second by only a neck over an extended 1m at Hamilton on good to firm ground 27 days ago. He is anticipated to improve and set a strong standard for the other runners. He is currently priced at 1-2.
• Sea The Power (FR) (Age: 2): His last race (LR) rating was 81, and his second-last race (2LR) rating was 22. He displayed ability on his debut, finishing third in a small field at Beverley (7.5f, good to firm), despite pulling hard. He then stepped up on that form to finish seventh of 13 in the valuable Convivial maiden at the York Ebor meeting (7f, good to firm) last month. However, the sources suggest he will need to do more to seriously challenge Mr Colonel. He is currently priced at 8-1.

Spotlight Verdict:
“If MR COLONEL builds on his promising debut second, as seems likely, he should prove hard to beat. Sea The Power wasn’t disgraced in the Convivial maiden at the York Ebor meeting and is the percentage call for the forecast spot before any betting clues are known about the newcomers.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Mr Colonel (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highly promising debut performance, finishing a close second. He is expected to show significant improvement, setting a high benchmark for the race. As the top-rated horse by TimeWise, he carries strong credentials.
  • Weaknesses: With only one career start, he is still relatively unexposed, and his ability on today’s soft ground is yet to be fully proven, as his debut was on good to firm.
  • Suitability: The race distance of 1m is consistent with his extended 1m debut. His main challenge will be adapting to the soft ground.
• Sea The Power (FR):
  • Strengths: Has demonstrated ability and improved in his second outing in a competitive race. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: He has a tendency to pull hard, which could impact his performance, and he is expected to need more to compete with Mr Colonel.
  • Suitability: His previous runs were on good to firm ground, making his performance on today’s soft conditions an unknown factor. The race distance is 1m, while his previous runs were 7.5f and 7f.

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2.15 Ayr – Jackie And Janet Mack 65th Anniversary Handicap (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Vince Lamour (IRE) – Total: 276
2. Monks Dream (IRE) – Total: 262

Recent Form and Comments:

• Vince L’Amour (IRE) (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings show consistent activity: 79, 38, 17, 10, 5, 5, 3, 2, 3, 2. He won a soft-ground Class 3 handicap at York last October, beating 16 rivals, and is now 7lb lower. He has delivered good recent efforts at Chepstow and Haydock, indicating a drop in class for this race. Rain would further enhance his chances, placing him high on the list of contenders. He is currently priced at 11-2.
• Monks Dream (IRE) (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings are 75, 26, 20, 8, 6, 8, 4, 2, 3, 2. He performs better on AW than turf, which is reflected in his current mark. He has shown promising signs on grass this summer, including a close fifth at Haydock 13 days ago (5f, good). While he has a bit more to prove on slow ground (with only one fair run in such conditions), his rider claims a valuable 5lb, making him a capable contender. He is currently priced at 10-1.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Never Dark lurks on a dangerous mark and there were green shoots of recovery at Wolverhampton 12 days ago. He looks set to go well in new blinkers, especially if the rain arrives, while Jm Jhingree, Harb and the unexposed Your Love also come right into it. This represents a drop in class for VINCE L’AMOUR though and his recent efforts in Class 4 company suggest he retains a good chunk of the ability that saw him blitz a big field from the front at York last autumn. Every drop of rain to fall will be in his favour.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Vince L’Amour (IRE):
  • Strengths: Proven ability on soft ground, winning a Class 3 handicap last year, and is now 7lb lighter. His recent form in higher classes is strong, and a drop in class for this race, coupled with soft ground, is highly advantageous. He is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned for today’s specific conditions.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the soft ground conditions.
• Monks Dream (IRE):
  • Strengths: Current mark takes into account his preference for AW, and he has shown recent promising form on turf, including a close fifth at Haydock. The 5lb claim by his jockey is a significant advantage. He is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: His form on slow ground is questionable, with only one fair run in such conditions.
  • Suitability: His suitability for today’s soft ground is a key concern.

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2.45 Ayr – Ladbrokes Free Bet At Ayr Kilkerran Handicap (Class 2)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Crowd Quake – Total: 349
2. Dain Ma Nut In – Total: 273

Recent Form and Comments:

• Crowd Quake (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings are 98, 48, 26, 12, 8, 7, 4, 3, 2, 2. He is a highly progressive 4yo, boasting seven wins from his last nine starts, including a recent victory at Southwell (1m3f, AW). He followed this with a close second of 14 at Doncaster last Thursday (1m4f, good to soft) off his current mark. He is unraced on softer ground. He re-enters before a 5lb rise is implemented, and holds very solid claims. He is currently priced at 100-30.
• Dain Ma Nut In (Age: 4): His last race (LR) rating was 91, and he has also recorded latest master ratings of 66, 73, 101, 101. This front-runner secured victories when stepped up to 1m2f at York (good) in July, and again at the Ebor meeting (1m2f, good to firm). He has a previous win at this track and has demonstrated promise on soft ground. Having gone up only 3lb for his last win, he is capable of another strong performance. He is currently priced at 11-2.

Spotlight Verdict:
“It is hard to oppose the prolific CROWD QUAKE (nap), who came clear with an unexposed 3yo when suffering a rare defeat at Doncaster last Thursday and runs before a 5lb rise kicks in. The return to Ayr could be a major positive for Hornsea Bay and he is second choice ahead of Liberty Coach, who is unexposed on slow ground in handicaps. Dain Ma Nut In and last year’s winner Financer could also be involved.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Crowd Quake:
  • Strengths: Exceptional recent form, with a high win rate and a strong performance (close second) last week in a valuable race. Benefits from running before a 5lb penalty takes effect. Top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Has not yet raced on ground softer than good to soft, so his performance on today’s soft ground is an unknown.
  • Suitability: The soft ground is a potential concern. The race distance is 1m2f, aligning with his recent successful runs at 1m3f and 1m4f.
• Dain Ma Nut In:
  • Strengths: A front-running horse with multiple recent wins over the 1m2f distance. He has shown promise on soft ground and has previously won at Ayr. His 3lb rise for the last win is manageable. He is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned.
  • Suitability: Well-suited to both the track and potentially the soft ground conditions.

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3.15 Ayr – British Stallion Studs Scottish Premier Series EBF Fillies Handicap (Class 4)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Aeolian – Total: 292
2. Donna Nook – Total: 280

Recent Form and Comments:

• Aeolian (Age: 3): Her last three race ratings are 61, 39, 18. This thrice-raced filly was soundly beaten in a 1m4f Listed event at the York Ebor festival. However, she made all at Newmarket (1m2f, good to soft) earlier in August and may still have more to offer, especially returning to a lower class and shorter trip. She is currently priced at Evs.
• Donna Nook (Age: 3): Her last seven race ratings are 83, 27, 15, 9, 7, 8, 3. She achieved success in Ireland (7f) on AW and performed well on AW at Southwell (1m) in her second start for a new yard. Her potential as a danger depends on her effectiveness back on turf and stepped up to 1m2f, which is an unknown factor. She is currently priced at 9-2.

Spotlight Verdict:
“CHARMING PRINCESS is a non-runner. Aeolian made all at Newmarket but was soundly beaten in a Listed event at York, however, she may still have more to offer back down in trip/class. Stablemate Brielle has less to prove than her stablemate Donna Nook in terms of the trip/surface.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Aeolian:
  • Strengths: Demonstrated front-running capability with a win at Newmarket (1m2f, good to soft). She has the potential for further improvement, especially with the drop in class and trip. She is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Was comprehensively beaten in a recent Listed event.
  • Suitability: Her previous win on good to soft suggests some adaptability, but today’s soft ground might test her further. The return to 1m2f should be favourable.
• Donna Nook:
  • Strengths: Has a proven record on AW with an Irish win and a good performance at Southwell. She is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Her ability to perform on turf and over the 1m2f distance is considered an “imponderable”.
  • Suitability: There are significant doubts about her suitability for today’s soft turf and the 1m2f trip.

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3.45 Ayr – RBC Brewin Dolphin Wealth Management Handicap (Div 1) (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. The Childe Of Hale – Total: 253
2. Penelopes Sister (IRE) – Total: 247

Recent Form and Comments:

• The Childe Of Hale (Age: 3): His last seven race ratings are 87, 26, 16, 8, 5, 5, 2. This 3yo built on previous promise to win at Doncaster (7f, good to soft) in July. He hit the front in the final furlong, leading to optimism that he will be well-suited by the 1m distance. He is respected despite a 4lb increase in weight. He is currently priced at 7-2.
• Penelope’s Sister (IRE) (Age: 5): Her last ten race ratings are 47, 31, 18, 10, 7, 4, 4, 2, 2, 1. She boasts a strong record at this course and distance, with two wins this season (good to firm/good) and a runner-up finish over C&D (good to soft) two starts ago. She is also effective on soft ground. Although she was below her best at Haydock last time, she could play a leading role upon her return to Ayr. She is currently priced at 5-1.

Spotlight Verdict:
“The mare PENELOPE’S SISTER has a strong record here and can return to winning ways now back at Ayr, following a lesser run at Haydock. The 3yo The Childe Of Hale kept on well to win over 7f at Doncaster last time and is feared most on his first crack at 1m. The very lightly raced Arkleside is another interesting 3yo.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• The Childe Of Hale:
  • Strengths: Recent win at Doncaster, showing strong finishing ability, suggesting the step up to 1m will be suitable. Despite a 4lb weight rise, he is highly regarded. He is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: This will be his first attempt at the 1m distance.
  • Suitability: His previous win was on good to soft, so his performance on today’s soft ground should be within his capabilities.
• Penelope’s Sister (IRE):
  • Strengths: Possesses an excellent track and distance record at Ayr, including two wins this season and a recent second place. She is proven to be effective on soft ground. She is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Her last outing at Haydock was not her best performance.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for today’s soft ground and the Ayr course.

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4.15 Ayr – RBC Brewin Dolphin Wealth Management Handicap (Div 2) (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Epidavros (IRE) – Total: 254
2. Quiet Resolve (IRE) – Total: 252

Recent Form and Comments:

• Epidavros (IRE) (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings are 63, 30, 20, 11, 8, 7, 5, 2, 2, 2. He will need to improve on his last two starts, but prior to that, he went close over this course and distance (good ground) and won on soft/good to soft ground last September. He is considered capable of making a significant impact. He is currently priced at 11-2.
• Quiet Resolve (IRE) (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings are 74, 27, 14, 9, 8, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2. He holds a turf record of 0-11 compared to 2-13 on AW. He performed creditably, finishing fifth, in this race last year (good ground) and secured a third-place finish out of 14 in the Leger Legends race on Sunday (1m, good to soft). He could be a contender. He is currently priced at 5-1.

Spotlight Verdict:
“The filly COEUR JAUNE looked a 3yo to follow prior to coming up short in last month’s hat-trick bid at Doncaster, and that run may have come too soon after her previous win. She earns the vote ahead of fellow 3yo Motawaared who could benefit from the drop back in trip on his first run for Jim Goldie. Epidavros is next on the list.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Epidavros (IRE):
  • Strengths: Has a history of performing well over this course and distance, including a close second, and has wins on soft/good to soft ground. He is considered capable of a strong showing. He is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: His last two starts have been below par, requiring him to regain previous form.
  • Suitability: Well-suited to today’s soft ground.
• Quiet Resolve (IRE):
  • Strengths: Has shown ability in this race previously and delivered a solid third-place finish on good to soft recently. He is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: His turf record (0-11) is a significant concern, despite his overall capability.
  • Suitability: His good to soft form provides some confidence, but the turf record on soft ground remains a potential weakness.

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4.45 Ayr – Ladbrokes Get Rewarded With Ladbucks Handicap (Class 6)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Dwindling Funds – Total: 259
2. Cooperation (IRE) – Total: 239

Recent Form and Comments:

• Dwindling Funds (Age: 4): His last ten race ratings are 77, 27, 19, 11, 4, 5, 2, 1, 1, 2. His last four appearances include wins over 1m2f, 1m1f, and 1m, all achieved in Scotland on good/firmer ground. While he is an improving sort, his most recent performance at Ayr suggests that a further drop back in trip to 7f may not be ideal. He is currently priced at 9-2.
• Cooperation (IRE) (Age: 7): His last ten race ratings are 73, 31, 13, 9, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2. With a record of 7-65, he often finishes second for his new yard but appears to be consistently knocking on the door. He performed well on AW last week and is scheduled for a 2lb weight increase, making him a shortlisted contender. He is currently priced at 11-2.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Unexposed filly MINSHAAR is taken to atone for her luckless Haydock run and get off the mark. We’ve Got This, who may still have further progress in her, is second choice. Cooperation, John L Sullivan and Who Wants Me complete the shortlist.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Dwindling Funds:
  • Strengths: An improving horse with multiple wins over longer distances in Scotland. He is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: His recent form indicates that the drop back to 7f might not be to his advantage.
  • Suitability: His previous wins were on good/firmer ground, making his performance on today’s soft ground a significant unknown. His suitability for both the shorter distance and soft conditions is questionable.
• Cooperation (IRE):
  • Strengths: Consistently performs well and is “knocking at the door” for a win. His recent AW run was strong, and he will face a 2lb penalty in the future, suggesting his current form is competitive. He is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: He has a tendency to finish second (“seconditis”).
  • Suitability: The race is on soft ground, but no specific comments on his performance in such conditions are provided in the sources.

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5.20 Ayr – Tennents Lager Handicap (Class 3)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Spinning Wheel – Total: 306
2. Surrey Belle – Total: 302

Recent Form and Comments:

• Spinning Wheel (Age: 3): His last three race ratings are 73, 39, 19. He won novice events at Beverley (1m2f, good) and Yarmouth (11.5f, good to soft) in the spring. He was well held when entered into the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot (1m6f, good to firm). However, he retains obvious unexposed potential as he now competes in a handicap after a three-month break. He is currently priced at 13-8.
• Surrey Belle (Age: 5): Her last ten race ratings are 100, 46, 18, 10, 10, 8, 5, 3, 1, 2. She achieved two excellent runner-up finishes in good-ground staying handicaps at Ripon (2m) and Chester (2m2f). She then returned to hurdles to win a Hexham handicap (good to soft) in June. She previously won on heavy ground last September, indicating that further rain would not pose an issue. She is expected to perform well for last year’s winning yard. She is currently priced at 5-2.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Surrey Belle is a solid option for last year’s winning stable but there’s a feeling that at least one of the two 3yos will resume their progression. SPINNING WHEEL has been given time since finishing down the field in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and is preferred to Golden Handshake, who was well held in the Melrose at York but had looked on the up when winning a maiden and handicap over 1m4f prior to that.”

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Spinning Wheel:
  • Strengths: Possesses unexposed potential, having won novice events earlier in the season. He has been given a break after competing in a Group 2 race and now enters handicap company. He is the top-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Was well beaten in his Group 2 outing.
  • Suitability: His previous wins were on good and good to soft ground. While unexposed, his ability on today’s soft ground is yet to be definitively tested. The race distance is 1m5f, which aligns with his progression in longer races.
• Surrey Belle:
  • Strengths: Demonstrated strong form with two runner-up finishes in staying handicaps and has a proven ability to win on heavy ground, making her very suitable for soft conditions. She is from the stable that won this race last year. She is the second highest-rated by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned for today’s race.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for today’s soft ground. The race distance is 1m5f, and she has previously run well over 2m and 2m2f.

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