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4.18 Chelmsford City – Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK Nursery (GBBPlus Race) (Class 4)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Explosion – Total: 324
2. Royal Bodyguard (IRE) – Total: 281

Recent Form and Comments:

• Explosion (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 110. He was placed twice over 7f before showing improvement to win a valuable Windsor novice over 1m on soft ground 17 days ago. He needs to transfer that progress to Polytrack on his nursery debut but is expected to be suited by today’s 1m2f trip. He is currently priced at 2.00.
• Royal Bodyguard (IRE) (Age: 2): His last race rating was 82. This colt has been steadily progressive, winning a small-field Kempton nursery (1m) last month in his fifth career run. He followed this with a credible third place in a valuable event at Doncaster (1m, good to soft) last week. He is stepping up in trip here and is considered to have a good chance. He is currently priced at 3.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Explosion produced a good performance on soft turf 17 days ago but we can’t be sure he’ll be seen to quite the same effect on Polytrack. Preference is for ROYAL BODYGUARD, who followed last month’s small-field win on this surface with a creditable third at last week’s St Leger meeting at Doncaster”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Explosion:
  • Strengths: Demonstrated significant improvement with a recent valuable win. As the top-rated horse by TimeWise, he has strong credentials and is anticipated to be suited by today’s trip (1m2f).
  • Weaknesses: His previous win was on soft turf, so his ability to perform on Polytrack (Standard surface) is an unknown factor.
  • Suitability: The trip is likely suitable, but the change in surface to Standard is a key consideration.
• Royal Bodyguard (IRE):
  • Strengths: Has a proven track record on this surface, having won an AW nursery at Kempton. He has shown consistent progression and a good recent third in a valuable race. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned in the sources for today’s specific conditions.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the Standard AW conditions, given his previous win and solid recent form on similar surfaces and progression over longer distances (up to 1m2f today).

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4.50 Chelmsford City – Betfair Hands And Heels Amateur Jockeys Handicap (Class 6)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Sense Of Reason – Total: 223
2. Pending Appeal – Total: 180

Recent Form and Comments:

• Sense Of Reason (Age: 4): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 73. He secured a win in a ten-runner handicap over today’s course and distance six weeks ago, on his tenth attempt. Despite being 5lb higher in weight today, he still makes a strong appeal in this modest race. He is currently priced at 2.50.
• Pending Appeal (Age: 5): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 49. He has not added to his turf nursery win from three years ago. However, he kept on for fourth place off a basement mark at Leicester (1m2f, good to firm) in August and did not have a clear run in a 1m4f AW classified race last time. He is considered an each-way contender. He is currently priced at 11.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“The most obvious answer is SENSE OF REASON, who won a slightly stronger C&D race than this when last in action six weeks ago and has some scope to build on that performance. Wyld Bill and Prince Hector hold form claims too but Mass Consumption, who has by far the most experienced jockey in the field, may provide the main threat to the selection”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Sense Of Reason:
  • Strengths: Proven course and distance winner on a Standard surface. He showed good form recently and is expected to build on that performance. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Carries a 5lb higher weight compared to his last win.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the course and distance on a Standard surface.
• Pending Appeal:
  • Strengths: Has shown some decent efforts recently, including a fourth-place finish off a low mark and an excuse for his last outing. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Has a long losing streak since his turf nursery win three years ago.
  • Suitability: Has run on AW, but his only win was on turf. His performance in today’s Standard conditions is to be seen, though previous AW classified run suggests some suitability.

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5.25 Chelmsford City – Bet At Your Best With Betfair Selling Stakes (Class 4)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Forever Penywern – Total: 306
2. Antelope – Total: 250

Recent Form and Comments:

• Forever Penywern (Age: 3): In her last race, she achieved a rating of 106. She delivered on previous promise shown in turf maidens by comfortably winning a valuable Goodwood seller (1m3f, good to firm) last month. Her ability to handle the switch to Polytrack will be key to her chances. She is currently priced at 1.83.
• Antelope (Age: 3): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 70. He won two 1m2f turf handicaps in May and has maintained his form well since. He is dropping back in trip after appearing stretched by 1m4f three weeks ago. Despite not being favoured by the weights, he is likely to give a good account of himself. He is currently priced at 5.50.

Spotlight Verdict:
“It’s hard to get away from FOREVER PENYWERN, who had a fair bit left in the tank when winning what looked a pretty good seller at Goodwood last month. Antelope has the worst chance on the adjusted BHA ratings but seems more likely to run his race than Divine Legacy and Wise Counsellor”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Forever Penywern:
  • Strengths: Impressive winner of a valuable seller, suggesting significant ability. She retains clear potential and is the highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Her performance on Polytrack (Standard surface) is unproven, as her best form has been on turf.
  • Suitability: The 1m2f distance is suitable, but the switch to a Standard AW surface is an important unknown.
• Antelope:
  • Strengths: Has a consistent record, with two wins over 1m2f on turf, and has held his form well. He is also returning to a more suitable trip. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: The Spotlight Verdict suggests he has “the worst chance on the adjusted BHA ratings”, and his form is primarily on turf, making his AW performance an uncertainty.
  • Suitability: The distance is suitable, but his effectiveness on a Standard AW surface is not explicitly confirmed by previous form.

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6.00 Chelmsford City – Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 1) (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Piscean Star – Total: 286
2. Marseillan (IRE) – Total: 26

Recent Form and Comments:

• Piscean Star (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 74. This well-bred colt made a winning debut at Kempton (7f, AW) last month. While he was safely held in a valuable sales race subsequently, he is now returning to a lower class and has a significant role to play. He is currently priced at 5.00.
• Marseillan (IRE) (Age: 2): He is a newcomer, with a TimeWise Total Rating of 26. This 32,000euros yearling has a strong pedigree, being closely related to an Italian Listed winner and a Listed-placed 7f-1m winner. His dam was also a 7f AW 2yo winner (RPR 74). He faces a fairly good standard for his debut. He is currently priced at 21.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Normal improvement ought to suffice for ROSA INGLESA, who kept on well for second on last month’s debut at Yarmouth. Kempton winner Piscean Star will find this easier than his latest assignment and is the main danger on form. Trust No One is arguably the most interesting among the newcomers”.
Note: Rosa Inglesa does not have a TimeWise Total Rating listed in the provided sources, despite being highlighted in the Spotlight Verdict. Marseillan (IRE) is included as the second highest-rated horse based purely on the TimeWise Total Rating available.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Piscean Star:
  • Strengths: Has a proven winning record on AW over a similar trip (7f). He is well-bred and the step down in class makes him a strong contender. He is the clear top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Was well beaten in a recent valuable sales race, suggesting a ceiling at higher levels.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the Standard AW conditions and 7f distance.
• Marseillan (IRE):
  • Strengths: Possesses a strong pedigree with multiple winners in his family, including on AW.
  • Weaknesses: This is his debut race, so he lacks prior race experience. His TimeWise Total rating is very low, indicating limited data.
  • Suitability: Unknown, as it is his first competitive run.

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6.30 Chelmsford City – Betfair EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Acclaimed Freedom – Total: 235
2. The Wicked Wolf (IRE) – Total: 214

Recent Form and Comments:

• Acclaimed Freedom (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 57. This colt, brother to a useful 7f performer, showed clear promise by finishing fourth of five in a strong Ascot novice (6f, soft) this month. Despite a wide draw, he could pose a threat if he adapts to this very different course and distance. He is currently priced at 3.50.
• The Wicked Wolf (IRE) (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 54. This £34,000 breeze-up purchase raced too freely and was never competitive, finishing eighth of ten on his debut at Windsor (1m, soft) this month. He will require significant improvement. He is currently priced at 15.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Andrew Balding’s filly Athena’s War could quite plausibly be good enough to make a winning debut in this run-of-the-mill novice but ACCLAIMED FREEDOM shaped pretty well on soft ground at Ascot a fortnight ago and gets the vote in the hope he can build on that performance on this new surface. Mick From Tipp also showed promise on his debut and is next on the list”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Acclaimed Freedom:
  • Strengths: Showed promise on his debut in a competitive race and is well-bred. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: His debut was on soft ground, so his performance on a Standard AW surface is untested. He also has a wide draw.
  • Suitability: The change in surface to Standard AW is a significant factor. His ability to handle the new surface and the 7f C&D needs to be proven.
• The Wicked Wolf (IRE):
  • Strengths: Is a breeze-up purchase, indicating some pedigree or physical appeal. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Displayed a tendency to race too freely and was uncompetitive on his debut, requiring substantial improvement.
  • Suitability: His debut performance suggests he may struggle with today’s conditions if he repeats his free-running style.

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7.00 Chelmsford City – Betfair Safer Gambling Tools Nursery (Class 6)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Captain Bruce (IRE) – Total: 215
2. Thanh Nam – Total: 212

Recent Form and Comments:

• Captain Bruce (IRE) (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 72. After finishing last on his nursery debut at 50-1, he showed a dramatic turnaround over today’s course and distance two weeks later, winning by 2l. Despite carrying a 6lb penalty, he remains an obvious contender. He is currently priced at 2.88.
• Thanh Nam (Age: 2): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 57. He failed to make a significant impact in his three qualifying races but ran respectably, finishing fifth of nine, in a “fairly good C&D novice” three weeks ago. He is expected to be much more competitive in this low-grade nursery. He is currently priced at 6.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Captain Bruce kept on strongly for a clearcut C&D success last month and is not opposed lightly but he’s 6lb higher today and nursery debutant THANH NAM, who displayed promise in a C&D novice two days earlier, may improve past him. Old rivals Fanjove and Miss Ayala can also feature”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Captain Bruce (IRE):
  • Strengths: Proven course and distance winner on a Standard surface, showing significant improvement in his last run. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Carries a 6lb penalty for his recent win.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the Standard AW conditions and 7f distance.
• Thanh Nam:
  • Strengths: Showed promise in a C&D novice and is expected to be more competitive in this lower-grade nursery. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Yet to secure a win and his form is not as strong as Captain Bruce’s recent victory.
  • Suitability: Has shown ability over the C&D on AW, suggesting good suitability for today’s conditions.

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7.30 Chelmsford City – Betfair Plays Different Handicap (Class 5)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Kingmaker (IRE) – Total: 278
2. Carlton – Total: 276

Recent Form and Comments:

• Kingmaker (IRE) (Age: 3): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 84. He is a maiden from nine starts but bounced back from a lesser effort at Sandown (1m6f) to finish second at Southwell (1m4f) last month in his first handicap on AW. He is expected to be competitive with a repeat performance. He is currently priced at 3.50.
• Carlton (Age: 5): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 72. He boasts an excellent record at Chelmsford, with five wins here (1m6f/2m). He also won a novice handicap hurdle at Southwell (2m) in June. He returned to Flat racing to finish runner-up in July/August and was a creditable third over hurdles 18 days ago. His strong Chelmsford record makes him a top contender. He is currently priced at 6.00.

Spotlight Verdict:
“A case can be made for all of these, with CARLTON’s excellent Chelmsford record earning him the vote. Curran is second choice”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Kingmaker (IRE):
  • Strengths: Showed good form on AW last month in his first handicap on the surface, indicating potential for improvement. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: Remains a maiden after nine starts.
  • Suitability: Good suitability for AW conditions, having recently performed well on a similar surface. The 1m5½f trip aligns with his previous efforts at 1m4f and 1m6f.
• Carlton:
  • Strengths: Has an outstanding record at Chelmsford with multiple wins on AW, making him highly suitable for this course and surface. He is versatile across Flat and hurdles, and his recent form is strong. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned in the sources.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the Standard AW conditions and the 1m5½f distance, given his extensive winning experience at Chelmsford over similar trips.

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8.00 Chelmsford City – betting.betfair.com Handicap (Class 6)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Sams Hope – Total: 248
2. Invincible Navy (IRE) – Total: 231

Recent Form and Comments:

• Sam’s Hope (Age: 5): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 74. He has a strong form of 242421 since joining Martin Dunne, including a 4l win from a wide draw at Wolverhampton (6f, AW) on Tuesday. He appears well-treated under a penalty and performed well over today’s course and distance on his penultimate run, making him a major player. He is currently priced at 1.80.
• Invincible Navy (IRE) (Age: 4): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 64. He is a 21-race maiden but has recently finished runner-up in classified events over today’s course and distance and at Lingfield (7f, AW). He is expected to benefit from a good pace and is respected back in a handicap, with reapplied cheekpieces. He is currently priced at 5.50.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Top of the list is SAM’S HOPE who got back on the scoresheet with an easy win at Wolverhampton on Tuesday and looks well treated under a penalty. The main threat could come from Invincible Navy, who hasn’t been with James Owen for long and has finished runner-up in his last two starts. Dubai Magic and dual C&D winner Due Date also enter the reckoning, while another to keep an eye on is last year’s winner Lion Ring”.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Sam’s Hope:
  • Strengths: Comes into the race on the back of an easy AW win and has shown very consistent form for his new yard. He is considered well-treated under a penalty and has previously run well over the C&D. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: No explicit weaknesses are mentioned in the sources.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the Standard AW conditions and 6f distance, given his recent form and C&D performance.
• Invincible Navy (IRE):
  • Strengths: Has been consistently finishing as a runner-up in classified races over C&D and similar tracks. He is expected to thrive with a good pace in the race. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise.
  • Weaknesses: He is a 21-race maiden.
  • Suitability: Well-suited for the C&D and Standard AW conditions, demonstrating good consistency.

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8.30 Chelmsford City – Play Different With Betfair Handicap (Class 6)

Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total Rating):

1. Ernie’s Valentine – Total: 228
2. Francesi – Total: 206

Recent Form and Comments:

• Ernie’s Valentine (Age: 6): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 64. While not as strong as he once was, he secured a third-place finish at Lingfield (7f) last month for his current stable. He was denied a clear run when only sixth at Kempton on Monday. He is expected to perform well back at 1m and is on a career-low mark, making him a possible contender. He is currently priced at 10-1.
• Francesi (Age: 6): In his last race, he achieved a rating of 59. He placed off today’s mark in consecutive races at Southwell (1m) this summer. Although he didn’t run badly behind a subsequent winner at Kempton (7f), he was only beaten by about 3l at Wolverhampton (9.4f) recently, but still has a fair bit to prove. He is currently priced at 8-1.

Spotlight Verdict:
“Peter Chapple-Hyam’s ROGUE OFFICER (nap) returned from a layoff with a pleasing handicap debut over 7f here three weeks ago and could be hard to beat over this new trip if that outing has brought him on. Campani opened his account with an emphatic 6f turf win last month and may also still have potential but, given his tendency to race too freely, this return to 1m is not without risk. Dandy G Boy is next on the list”.
Note: Rogue Officer is highlighted as the ‘nap’ by the Spotlight Verdict, but does not have a TimeWise Total Rating in the provided sources. Ernie’s Valentine and Francesi are listed as the Master Top Two based on the available TimeWise Total Ratings from the provided tables.

Assessment of Chances for Today’s Race:

• Ernie’s Valentine:
  • Strengths: Recent placing and bad luck in running indicate he retains ability. He is back at a suitable distance (1m) and is on a career-low mark, offering potential value. He is the top-rated horse by TimeWise from the available data.
  • Weaknesses: His overall form is not as strong as in previous years.
  • Suitability: Well-suited to the 1m distance on a Standard AW surface.
• Francesi:
  • Strengths: Has a history of placing off this mark at Southwell (1m) on AW, showing suitability for the conditions. He is the second highest-rated horse by TimeWise from the available data.
  • Weaknesses: The sources state he “still has a fair bit to prove”.
  • Suitability: Suitable for the 1m distance and Standard AW conditions.

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