Ayr Race 1:28 Ladbrokes Free Bet At Ayr Fillies Nursery
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Magic Box (IRE): Total rating of 299.
- Aspiral: Total rating of 292.
Magic Box (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: This two-year-old filly has two wins from her three nursery starts. Her latest victory was at Catterick (7f, soft) in July, where she comfortably pulled clear with a horse whose form has since been franked. She handled the conditions cosily and is expected to take a 7lb rise in her stride. The Spotlight notes her as “progressing nicely”.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Magic Box (IRE) is a strong contender due to her recent impressive form and proven ability on soft ground, which indicates suitability for today’s good to soft going. Her trainer, William Haggas, won this race last year, adding to her prospects. The main strength is her clear progression and comfortable win last time; there are no explicit weaknesses mentioned.
Aspiral
- Recent Form & Comments: Aspiral, also a two-year-old filly, built on a promising debut second (5f, good) to win at Carlisle (7f, good to soft) in July. She subsequently finished third of five in a valuable novice race at Goodwood (1m, good to firm). She begins her handicap career on what is considered a fair mark.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Aspiral has demonstrated improvement and is expected to continue doing so under her top northern trainer. Her proven form on good to soft ground makes her well-suited to today’s conditions. Her primary strength lies in her potential for further improvement on her handicap debut from a fair mark. No obvious weaknesses are highlighted.
Spotlight Verdict: The William Haggas-trained MAGIC BOX is progressing nicely and is taken to make it three out of four in nurseries. The form of Magistery’s recent win at Carlisle reads well and, with the step up in trip a possible plus, she is feared most ahead of topweight Radiance, who has Group-race entries.
Ayr Race 1:58 Get Home Safe With Thistle Cabs EBF Nursery
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Ardisia (IRE): Total rating of 336.
- Amorim: Total rating of 326.
Ardisia (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: This two-year-old filly has won three of her seven starts. She was suited by the step up to 6f when winning on her nursery debut at Glorious Goodwood (good to soft). She followed this with another strong performance, finishing third of 21 in a sales race at York (6f, good to firm) last month.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Ardisia (IRE) appears to have “mileage in her mark” and is a horse to consider. Her suitability for 6f and proven form on good to soft ground are key strengths for today’s race. A potential weakness is that she is unraced on softer ground than good to soft, which might be a factor if conditions are particularly slow.
Amorim
- Recent Form & Comments: The two-year-old Amorim won by 6 lengths at Windsor (6f, good to firm) on his second start. Since then, he has consistently made the frame in 6f Listed races at Newbury and Ripon on his last two outings.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Amorim has shown good form in Listed company and could make a significant impact on his nursery debut. The main concern is “coping with the slow ground” as he has primarily raced on good to firm, but his current form suggests he has the quality to compete.
Spotlight Verdict: Having won with something to spare over C&D and at Redcar on his last two starts, BYE LAW is taken to complete a hat-trick on this nursery debut. Ardisia has done well since being upped to 6f and is second choice ahead of another progressive sort in Go Vince Go. The return to slow ground and drop into a nursery could prompt a revival from Reciprocated.
Ayr Race 2:33 British EBF Stallions Harry Rosebery Stakes (Listed)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Ipanema Queen (IRE): Total rating of 354.
- Shine On Me: Total rating of 337.
Ipanema Queen (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: This two-year-old filly has a strong record, making it 2-4 with a Listed win at the Curragh (5f, good) last month. Her last start saw her finish fifth in a 6f Group 3 race at the Curragh (good to yielding), where she was reportedly outstayed. She carries a 3lb penalty for her Listed win.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Ipanema Queen (IRE) is considered a “key player” now that she is back to 5f, a distance at which she has proven her ability. Her Listed race win is a significant strength, and she has handled good to yielding ground, making her suitable for good to soft today. Her perceived weakness is being outstayed over longer distances, which should not be an issue over 5f.
Shine On Me
- Recent Form & Comments: Shine On Me, another two-year-old filly, is yet to win from five attempts, but has been “running well in some classy company”. Her most recent run was a creditable third in a Group 3 at Longchamp (5f, very soft). She will be wearing first-time cheekpieces for this race.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Despite being a maiden, Shine On Me is regarded as having “leading claims” in this race, particularly with the addition of first-time cheekpieces. Her proven ability on very soft ground means she will handle today’s good to soft conditions well. Her strength lies in her consistent performances at a high level, even without a win. The lack of a win is her main weakness.
Spotlight Verdict: The maiden SHINE ON ME has been handed some tough assignments among her five starts and this is a good chance for her to get off the mark, having run very creditably in Listed and Group 3 races in France on her last two outings. Richard Hughes won this last year and his representative Our Cody, who was fifth in a hot Listed race at York last month, is second choice ahead of previous Listed winner Ipanema Queen.
Ayr Race 3:05 Arran Scottish Sprint EBF Fillies Stakes
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Star Of Lady M: Total rating of 358.
- Star Of Mehmas (IRE): Total rating of 356.
Star Of Lady M
- Recent Form & Comments: This five-year-old mare is the defending champion of this race, having made all to win it last year (good). She had an “encouraging Listed third” at Beverley (5f, good to firm) three weeks ago on her belated reappearance. She has won on soft ground earlier in her career and will have her usual visor returned for this race.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Star Of Lady M has “leading claims if building on her comeback run” and is well-suited to the course and distance, having won on various ground types including soft. Her main strength is her history in this very race and her proven versatility on ground conditions. A potential weakness is having raced only once this year.
Star Of Mehmas (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: A three-year-old filly, Star Of Mehmas (IRE) won the Listed 2yo event on this card 12 months ago (5f, good). She also achieved a “last-gasp win” off top weight in a competitive handicap at York (5f, good to firm) last month.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Star Of Mehmas (IRE) is a “strong candidate” for this race, with today’s 5½f trip potentially suiting her well. Her course-winning form is a significant advantage. The main uncertainty is her ability to handle “a slow surface” as she is unraced on such ground.
Spotlight Verdict: Beautiful Diamond, Star Of Lady M (last year’s winner) and Star Of Mehmas have the best form, but the first two have raced just once each so far this year and Star Of Mehmas is yet to tackle a slow surface. It may therefore pay to look elsewhere and a chance is taken on TIVA, who has impressed when winning handicaps on her last two starts and could have plenty more left in the tank. Sophia’s Starlight could relish the return to slow ground and is feared most ahead of Beautiful Diamond then Star Of Mehmas.
Ayr Race 3:40 Ladbrokes Ayr Bronze Cup Handicap
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Eternal Sunshine: Total rating of 347.
- Powdering (IRE): Total rating of 289.
Eternal Sunshine
- Recent Form & Comments: This five-year-old mare is “thriving” and has won her last three races (6f/5.5f, good), all under Lauren Young. Her most recent victory was in the Portland at Doncaster last Saturday. She has won at Ayr three times and is effective on good to soft ground. She is able to run off 2lb lower than at Doncaster.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Eternal Sunshine is in “rampant form” and is considered “tough to catch” as a front-runner. Her proven ability at Ayr and on good to soft ground, combined with a favourable weight adjustment, makes her a leading contender. She has no explicit weaknesses.
Powdering (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: A five-year-old mare who won at Kempton (6f, AW) recently, for which she carries a 5lb penalty. While she has won four times on turf (good-soft), her last three wins have been on the all-weather.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Powdering (IRE) has experience on good-soft turf, suggesting suitability for today’s conditions. However, she “needs to improve upon what she’s shown on grass over the last 12 months”. Her 5lb penalty also presents a challenge. Her strength is her ability to win on turf on similar ground, but her recent grass form is a weakness.
Spotlight Verdict: It is hard to get away from the thriving mare ETERNAL SUNSHINE (nap), who completed a quick hat-trick in the Portland at Doncaster last Saturday and is able to run off a 2lb lower mark this afternoon. The progressive Winged Messenger was a close third to Eternal Sunshine at Thirsk on September 6 despite being denied a clear passage and could be the chief danger. A strongly run 6f could be ideal for the selection’s stablemates Yaaser and Mostar Dreams, who are next on the list in that order. The 2023 Silver Cup winner Wobwobwob could also be firmly involved along with the well-treated Woven.
Ayr Race 4:15 Graeme Allans 70th Birthday Pension Scheme Handicap (Div 1)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Atmosphere: Total rating of 257.
- Penelopes Sister (IRE): Total rating of 247.
Atmosphere
- Recent Form & Comments: This three-year-old has a “solid record in handicaps”. On his last start, he was “given a bit to do before staying on into third on soft ground at Sandown” (1m). He is noted as having “lower mileage than many” in the race.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Atmosphere is considered to have “greater upside” than many competitors. His proven ability on soft ground and potential for further improvement make him a strong contender for the 1m race on good to soft going. No specific weaknesses are identified.
Penelope’s Sister (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: A five-year-old mare who is “effective at this track”. However, her recent form includes being a “well-held third here on Thursday” and a previous Haydock run that was “nothing special”.
- Chances in Today’s Race: While Penelope’s Sister (IRE) has a good record at Ayr, her very recent performances have been underwhelming. This suggests a potential weakness in current form, though her course suitability remains a strength.
Spotlight Verdict: Richard Spencer’s ATMOSPHERE came from a long way behind to take third at Sandown and he has greater upside than many in here. Little Ted was second over 7f here on Thursday and this far suits him even better. Lovette and Keats House are also shortlisted.
Ayr Race 4:45 Graeme Allans 70th Birthday Pension Scheme Handicap (Div 2)
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Dwindling Funds: Total rating of 264.
- Native Honey (IRE): Total rating of 254.
Dwindling Funds
- Recent Form & Comments: This four-year-old has “maintained his progress with a win here on Thursday”.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Dwindling Funds is in excellent current form, having secured a win at Ayr very recently. His strength is his consistent progression; no specific weaknesses are mentioned. He is suitable for the 1m trip on good to soft ground.
Native Honey (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: A three-year-old, Native Honey (IRE) “took advantage of a career-low mark to gain his first success over 7f here last month” (good). He has been “nudged back up 3lb” for this race. “Slow ground is no issue” for him.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Native Honey (IRE) exploited a reduced mark last time and is expected to “follow up as conditions won’t bother him”. His proven ability on slower ground is a significant strength. The 3lb rise in weight is a slight weakness, but his overall progression remains positive. He is suitable for 1m on good to soft ground.
Spotlight Verdict: The 3yo NATIVE HONEY exploited a reduced mark last time and may follow up as conditions won’t bother him. Dwindling Funds maintained his progress with a win here on Thursday and he’s second choice ahead of Thats My Boy Luke.
Ayr Race 5:20 Slater Menswear Handicap
TimeWise Master Top Two Rated Horses:
- Perseus Way (IRE): Total rating of 267.
- Alnayef (IRE): Total rating of 265.
Perseus Way (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: This six-year-old had a “win at Hamilton (1m5f, good to soft)” where he beat several rivals also in this race. However, he was “below par at Musselburgh last weekend”.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Perseus Way (IRE) is a proven winner on good to soft ground over a similar trip, which is a strength for today’s race. His recent below-par performance at Musselburgh is a weakness, but he has shown he can beat horses in this field.
Alnayef (IRE)
- Recent Form & Comments: A four-year-old, Alnayef (IRE) is currently 0-11. He finished “second to Perseus Way at Hamilton (1m5f, good to soft)” and “would have won had he not wandered around for pressure”. “Slower ground is a grey area” for him.
- Chances in Today’s Race: Alnayef (IRE) “firmly enters the reckoning” based on his strong second-place finish, suggesting he is capable of winning. His tendency to “wander around for pressure” and uncertainty on “slower ground” are weaknesses. If he can run straight and handle the conditions, he has a good chance.
Spotlight Verdict: This looks very open. Valley Of Flowers is respected as a dual winner of this race and she might be happier on the ground than many in here, and the same is true of Two Auld Pals. Marginal preference is for FLEUR DE MER who narrowly missed out on the AW last week and she’s another who won’t be fazed by the conditions.
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