TimeWise Chronicles

Ayr: The following analysis details the Master Top Two rated horses (based on the TIMEWISE MASTER RATING) for each race at Ayr, presented in chronological order, along with their recent form, provided comments, the Spotlight Verdict, and an assessment of their chances.

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1.15 Ayr: Ladbrokes Free Bet At Ayr Handicap (Class 2, 1m)

(Good To Soft, 14 runners, Win: £23,193)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Northern Express (IRE)335104, 45, 23, 15, 8
Apiarist (IRE)32484 (or 83), 45, 24, 14, 9

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Northern Express (IRE) (7yo): A former winner at this meeting. While operating a little below his really smart best so far this year, his recent form includes runs in slightly better races. Notably, he finished second only to Two Tribes in the Stewards’ Cup last month. A key factor is that he is unraced on ground slower than good.
  • Apiarist (IRE) (4yo): His optimal performance seems to occur on AW (All Weather). He recently finished behind Northern Express at the York Ebor meeting last month. His performance in this specific race 12 months ago resulted in only a ninth-place finish.

Spotlight Verdict (1.15 Ayr):
It may pay to forgive IMPARTIALITY a lesser run in a red-hot 3yo handicap at the York Ebor meeting as his record prior to that is very solid. Northern Express has been acquitting himself well in slightly better races and is second choice. Khafiz brings obvious unexposed potential, while Arctic Grey looked on the way back at Ascot last time.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Northern Express (IRE):
    • Strengths: Holds the highest TimeWise Master rating and has recent form in strong company. He is a former meeting winner.
    • Weaknesses: He is unraced on ground softer than good. With the ground officially Good To Soft, this presents a suitability query.
    • Suitability: Likely to be competitive based on class, but ground suitability remains a question mark.
  • Apiarist (IRE):
    • Strengths: High TimeWise Master rating.
    • Weaknesses: Prefers AW surfaces and previously performed poorly in this race. His recent run was behind Northern Express.
    • Suitability: Unlikely to perform at his peak due to the soft turf conditions.

1.50 Ayr: Ladbrokes Big Football Bet Builder Boosts Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed, 1m2f)

(Good To Soft, 6 runners, Win: £34,026)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Almeric373125, 47, 14, 0, 0
Caviar Heights (IRE)34892, 46, 18, 9, 6

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Almeric (3yo): Won at York on his second 2yo start (1m, soft) and subsequently followed up by winning the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket (1m1f, Good to Soft) in April. He is unexposed and the return to slow ground is an interesting factor.
  • Caviar Heights (IRE) (4yo): Is a Listed winner over 1m3f (good) who subsequently posted solid Group 3 form over longer distances. He is considered unexposed for a 4yo, and conditions are reported to be in his favour.

Spotlight Verdict (1.50 Ayr):
The 3yo ALMERIC looked a colt to follow when winning the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April and he earns the vote on his return to action. Improvement is required from his fellow 3yo Tuscan Hills but the forecast good to soft ground could be a positive for his claims and he is second choice. Liberty Lane and Certain Lad are right at home on slow ground and can be dangerous if back on song.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Almeric:
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise Master rating. Proven Listed winner on slow ground. Unexposed profile and returns to action favoured by the Spotlight Verdict.
    • Weaknesses: Returning from a 158-day absence.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, especially as slow ground appears favourable for him.
  • Caviar Heights (IRE):
    • Strengths: Strong form at Listed/Group 3 level and conditions are in his favour. Has an unexposed profile for his age.
    • Weaknesses: Rated 25 points below Almeric.
    • Suitability: Suitable due to preferred conditions and solid form at this level.

2.25 Ayr: Ladbrokes Ayr Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2, 6f)

(Good To Soft/Soft, 25 runners, Win: £33,501)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Nariko (IRE)357 (or 355)116, 43, 19, 13, 7
Binhareer (IRE)352 (or 351)106, 40, 23, 8, 6

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Nariko (IRE) (4yo): No specific commentary provided in the spotlight for this horse. Recent LR rating is 116.
  • Binhareer (IRE) (3yo): No specific commentary provided in the spotlight for this horse. Recent LR rating is 106.

Spotlight Verdict (2.25 Ayr):
The top choice is SAKHEER, who won the Gold Cup two years ago and bounced back to form when second in the Stewards’ Cup. He gets the vote ahead of another Gold Cup winner of two years ago, BARNABY, who has had a consistent campaign. Sudden Flight is a lightly raced 3yo with possibilities for a yard that won this in 2023. Lord Bertie, Righthere Rightnow, Far Above Dream, Roberto Caro, Sergeant Wilko, Aberama Gold and Gweedore are also entitled to be involved.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Nariko (IRE):
    • Strengths: Top rated by TimeWise Master ratings. Recent form reflected in high LR score.
    • Weaknesses: Not mentioned by the Spotlight in a competitive field, indicating limited profile or specific appeal for this test.
    • Suitability: High ratings suggest class, but lack of specific commentary limits further assessment (Good To Soft/Soft ground).
  • Binhareer (IRE):
    • Strengths: Second highest TimeWise Master rating.
    • Weaknesses: Not mentioned by the Spotlight in a competitive field.
    • Suitability: High ratings suggest competence for the race conditions.

3.00 Ayr: Ladbrokes “Get Rewarded With Ladbucks” Firth Of Clyde (Fillies Group 3, 6f)

(Good To Soft/Soft, 15 runners, Win: £36,862)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Lightning Polka378 (or 377)111, 0, 0, 0, 0
Dandana375 (or 374)119, 40, 22, 0, 0

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Lightning Polka (2yo): Won by 2l on debut at Haydock (6f, good) a fortnight ago, starting strong in the market. Her pedigree indicates her half-sister was effective on testing ground. She is firmly in calculations and expected to have lots more to offer for a leading trainer.
  • Dandana (2yo): Won her first two starts (6f, AW/good). Ran credibly when fourth of 11 in the Group 2 Lowther at York (6f, good to firm). She is dropping back in grade today.

Spotlight Verdict (3.00 Ayr):
Ed Walker has a good handle on the 2yo filly division… and her well-bred stablemate LIGHTNING POLKA can maintain her unbeaten record following a 2l win at Haydock on her recent debut. Coming Attraction made it two wins in a row when scoring in good style at Chester last month and is feared most ahead of Rogue Attraction, who impressed in a maiden at Catterick last time. Listed winner Argentine Tango could also go well, while Richard Fahey has a good record in this race.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Lightning Polka:
    • Strengths: Top-rated filly. Demonstrated strong potential with a decisive debut win. Excellent breeding, suggesting suitability for softer conditions. Favoured by the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Only one career start; stepping up significantly in class (Group 3).
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, believed capable of rapid progress.
  • Dandana:
    • Strengths: Solid TimeWise rating and proven winner who performed creditably in a higher-grade race (Group 2). Now drops slightly in grade.
    • Weaknesses: Finished over 5l behind the winner in Group 2 company.
    • Suitability: Well suited, dropping in class after showing ability at a higher level.

3.35 Ayr: Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap, Class 2, 6f)

(Good To Soft, 24 runners, Win: £92,772)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Two Tribes363 (or 362)106, 54, 29, 14, 5
Northern Ticker (IRE)355 (or 354)122, 45, 16, 17, 8

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Two Tribes (4yo): Recently won the Stewards’ Cup. The Spotlight suggests he might reverse placings with Northern Ticker based on previous runs.
  • Northern Ticker (IRE) (3yo): Won at York’s Ebor meeting, causing him to leap to the head of the ante-post market. Although the winning margin was narrow, the performance indicated potential for greater success. Requires further progress to overcome the resulting penalty.

Spotlight Verdict (3.35 Ayr):
Northern Ticker leapt to the head of the ante-post market when winning at York’s Ebor meeting and although the winning margin was narrow, it was a performance that promised better. Such progress is essential to overcome a penalty though and he might find Two Tribes (second choice) reversing the placings. The Stewards’ Cup winner Desert Falcon and Strike Red are other notable contenders.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Two Tribes:
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating and winner of the prestigious Stewards’ Cup. Expected to beat Northern Ticker.
    • Weaknesses: Only narrowly the top-rated contender.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, proven in major sprint handicaps at this level (Class 2 Heritage Handicap).
  • Northern Ticker (IRE):
    • Strengths: Strong TimeWise rating and achieved a high LR score (122). Highly progressive with promise for improvement.
    • Weaknesses: Needs to overcome a penalty, which is difficult in a competitive handicap.
    • Suitability: Suitable, but the penalty means he must demonstrate significant improvement to win.

4.10 Ayr: British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race, Class 2, 7f)

(Good To Soft, 7 runners, Win: £20,936)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Red Spells Danger (IRE)30190, 39, 0, 0, 0
Hasbro Market (IRE)289 (or 288)88, 30, 0, 0, 0

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Red Spells Danger (IRE) (2yo): Finished third on debut at York (7f, good). Subsequently ran with promise when sixth in the valuable Convivial Maiden. He is assessed as a leading contender.
  • Hasbro Market (IRE) (2yo): Finished second on debut (6f, Hamilton) before winning at Thirsk (7f, good to firm) last month. Now carries a 6lb penalty against unpenalized rivals. His pedigree suggests he is capable of further improvement.

Spotlight Verdict (4.10 Ayr):
Hasbro Market carries a 6lb penalty against some interesting opponents but his pedigree provides optimism. The highly-touted newcomer Nobody Knows and Red Spells Danger are strongly fancied. RED SPELLS DANGER is preferred.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Red Spells Danger (IRE):
    • Strengths: Top TimeWise Master rating. Has performed well in strong maiden company at York. Favoured by the Spotlight writer.
    • Weaknesses: Needs another step up in a warm novice race.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, holds the best form standard in the race based on exposure and quality of runs.
  • Hasbro Market (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent winner at the trip. Strong claims based on improvement potential suggested by pedigree.
    • Weaknesses: Carries a 6lb penalty for his win.
    • Suitability: Suitable, but the penalty makes his task tougher compared to rivals without penalties.

4.40 Ayr: Jordan Electrics Handicap (Div 1, Class 4, 7f)

(Good To Soft, 13 runners, Win: £11,515)

HorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
Kelpie Grey318 (or 297)100 (or 83), 37 (or 34), 19, 12, 8
Jannas Journey (IRE)303 (or 302)88, 32, 22, 12, 7

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Kelpie Grey (5yo): Has placed at Ayr four times this season over various distances (6f-1m). He handles all ground conditions. Holds no secrets from the handicapper, but is likely to be involved again after running well recently in the Bronze Cup (beaten 3l).
  • Jannas Journey (IRE) (4yo): Has had a very productive few months and the Spotlight suggests she may still be on the upgrade.

Spotlight Verdict (4.40 Ayr):
Jannas Journey has enjoyed a very productive few months and may still be on the upgrade but Oisin Murphy’s mount SHEIKH RAJ probaby still has potential and gets the vote. Highfield Viking seems very likely to be on the premises and is next on the list, ahead of U Sure Do.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Kelpie Grey:
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise Master rating. Highly dependable (placed four times here) and versatile regarding ground conditions. Currently in form, having run well recently.
    • Weaknesses: Profile is fully exposed to the handicapper.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, given proven form at the track and suitability to soft ground.
  • Jannas Journey (IRE):
    • Strengths: Highly rated. Showing good recent improvement and potentially still on the upgrade.
    • Weaknesses: Rated slightly below Kelpie Grey. Did not secure the Spotlight vote.
    • Suitability: Suitable based on recent productive form.

5.15 Ayr: Jordan Electrics Handicap (Div 2, Class 4, 7f)

(Good To Soft/Soft, 14 runners, Win: £11,515)

Note: The TIMEWISE MASTER TOTAL ratings for runners in this race are not provided in the source material. The assessment below uses form and RPR/TS data derived from the accompanying Spotlight/Raceform materials.

HorseRPR (Master)TS (Latest)Recent Form (Contextual)
Silent Move9177Beaten narrow margin 2LR, clear run issues LR
Rock Melody9065In form since break, performs well late in year

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Silent Move (4yo): Was unlucky when beaten less than a length into second at Carlisle (7f, good to firm) last month. He subsequently did not enjoy a clear run when finishing fifth at Thirsk. He acts on soft ground.
  • Rock Melody (6yo): Tends to perform well at this time of year. She has run well in both starts since returning from an 80-day break and is running off 1lb below her last winning mark. May be the best of her stable’s four runners.

Spotlight Verdict (5.15 Ayr):
The one who catches the eye most is SILENT MOVE [Chris Wilson]. He is respected ahead of Rock Melody (second choice), with Our Mighty Mo and Sea Legend also considered.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances (Inferred):

  • Silent Move:
    • Strengths: In good form despite recent bad luck/trouble in running. Proven suitability for soft ground. Favoured by the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Needs a clear run to deliver his best performance.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, acts on the anticipated slow ground and has a high RPR (91) for this grade.
  • Rock Melody:
    • Strengths: Running close to her last winning mark and typically performs well late in the season. In good recent form following a break.
    • Weaknesses: TS rating is only 65.
    • Suitability: Suitable due to seasonal performance trends and running off a manageable weight.

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