TimeWise Chronicles

Newbury; The following analysis identifies the Master Top Two rated horses (based on the TIMEWISE MASTER RATING) for each race at Newbury, presented in chronological order, along with a summary of their recent form, supplied comments, the Spotlight Verdict, and an assessment of their chances.

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1.30 Newbury: Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3)

(Group 3, 5f, Good To Soft, 11 runners, Win: £48,204)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Montassib (7yo)409129, 56, 27, 13, 10
2Balmoral Lady (IRE) (4yo)33270, 52, 31, 15, 11
T2Habooba (USA) (5yo)33276, 53, 26, 8, 7

Note: Balmoral Lady and Habooba (USA) share the second highest TimeWise Master Total of 332.

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Montassib (7yo): Made the leap from top handicaps to Pattern races last season, including a Group 3 win on Newcastle AW and a Group 1 success at Haydock last September. He acts well on soft ground. He finished close up in fifth in the Champions Sprint at Ascot 336 days ago.
  • Balmoral Lady (IRE) (4yo): No specific recent commentary supplied in the spotlight for this horse.
  • Habooba (USA) (5yo): Has bundles of early speed. Used her speed effectively at Kempton (6f) and York (5f) earlier in the season. Ran better than the 5l defeat suggests behind Shagraan at Beverley last time, but this appeared to highlight her limitations at this level.

Spotlight Verdict (1.30 Newbury):
Rage Of Bamby and Shagraan arrive here in top form, while Kerdos, Queen All Star and Cover Up (second choice) have the potential to deliver something bigger, but the safest option is RUMSTAR. He already has two Group 3s on his record this year, including when defying a penalty at Sandown in July, and he showed himself still to be in top form with his Nunthorpe fifth.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Montassib:
    • Strengths: Holds the highest rating by a significant margin (409). Proven Group 1 winner who acts well on soft ground.
    • Weaknesses: Returns from a layoff (336 days). Suitability for the minimum trip of 5f has to be taken on trust.
    • Suitability: High potential based on class, but fitness and trip queries exist.
  • Balmoral Lady (IRE):
    • Strengths: Shares the second highest rating.
    • Weaknesses: No recent commentary supplied to gauge current form or specific suitability.
    • Suitability: Unknown, based on limited available information.
  • Habooba (USA):
    • Strengths: Shares the second highest rating. Possesses significant early speed.
    • Weaknesses: Recent performance appeared to highlight limitations at Group 3 level.
    • Suitability: Moderate, as she appears vulnerable at this high class.

2.05 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Autumn Cup Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

(Class 2, 1m5½f, Good To Soft, 14 runners, Win: £38,655)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Stressfree (FR) (5yo)338 / 336105, 49, 18, 14, 6
2Dramatic Star (4yo)331106, 34, 27, 7, 4

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Stressfree (FR): A likeable hold-up performer. Has run exceptionally well in top handicaps over 1m6f recently, including finishing fourth in the Ebor at York and third in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock (where Dramatic Star was second). All ground seems to come alike to him.
  • Dramatic Star (4yo): Was the runner-up in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock. Expected to build on that promising run.

Spotlight Verdict (2.05 Newbury):
William Haggas had the 1-2 in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock recently and it would be no surprise were he to repeat the feat in another valuable staying handicap. DRAMATIC STAR was the runner-up at Haydock and can build on that promising run to go one better now. Stablemate Castle Cove acts well on ground softer than good and is an interesting one for this step up in trip. The progressive Majestic Warrior ran a fine race in the Ebor and is also shortlisted along with the thriving Beylerbeyi. Boatswain could find life a bit easier now taking on older opposition.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Stressfree (FR):
    • Strengths: Highest rated. Proven in top-class handicaps (Ebor/Old Borough Cup) and handles all ground. Holds solid each-way claims.
    • Weaknesses: Was beaten by Dramatic Star last time, though narrowly.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, given class and consistency over this distance.
  • Dramatic Star:
    • Strengths: Strong recent form, finishing second in a prestigious handicap. Expected to progress and can build on his last run. Selected as the top choice in the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Rated slightly below Stressfree.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, expected to go one better than his last outing.

2.40 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

(Class 2, 1m2f, Good To Soft, 11 runners, Win: £39,255)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Defiance (IRE) (4yo)348 / 347104, 48, 22, 8, 6
2Night Step (3yo)342 / 34093, 37, 22, 16, 12

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Defiance (IRE): Ran a very good race in the Old Borough Cup at Haydock on his penultimate start. He appears to be heading back to winning form.
  • Night Step: Has won three times over 1m2f. He is unexposed and, along with Dante’s Lad, is highlighted as potentially capable of further progress over this distance.

Spotlight Verdict (2.40 Newbury):
The shortlist is headed by the 3yos NIGHT STEP and Dante’s Lad who have both done well since upped to 1m2f and may be capable of further progress over this distance. Defiance, who appears to be heading back to winning form, is third choice ahead of last year’s winner Mustazeed.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Defiance (IRE):
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise Master rating. Has shown very good form recently (Old Borough Cup) and is believed to be returning to winning form.
    • Weaknesses: Was only third choice in the Spotlight.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, holds the class edge and is in encouraging form.
  • Night Step:
    • Strengths: Second highest rated. Strong progressive profile since moving up to 1m2f, suggesting potential for further improvement. Selected as the top choice by the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Rated marginally below Defiance.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, benefiting from the trip increase and youthful potential.

3.15 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) (In Honour Of Geoff Lewis)

(Group 2, 6f, Good To Soft, 8 runners, Win: £73,723)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Rock On Thunder (IRE) (2yo)374128, 43, 26, 13, 0
2Sands Of Spain (IRE) (2yo)348 / 347105, 36, 27, 17, 11

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Rock On Thunder (IRE): Showed clear leading form claims by beating all rivals except the smart favourite in a C&D Listed event and then finishing a clear second in the Gimcrack at York. He is one of the horses considered “in the mix”.
  • Sands Of Spain (IRE): Ran well in the Super Sprint at Newbury when focused on 5f. Was not disgraced when favourite for a 6f sales race at Newmarket recently, although he failed to improve for the new trip.

Spotlight Verdict (3.15 Newbury):
Having recorded a triple-digit RPR with his course performance last month, INTO THE SKY looks an exciting prospect for Jim Boyle and could well follow up. Words Of Truth (second choice) has strong credentials, while Rock On Thunder and Watcha Snoop are also in the mix.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Rock On Thunder (IRE):
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise Master rating. Possesses leading form claims having been runner-up in the Group 2 Gimcrack.
    • Weaknesses: Did not secure the Spotlight preference, though mentioned as being “in the mix”.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, with Group 2 form standing out.
  • Sands Of Spain (IRE):
    • Strengths: Strong TimeWise rating. Showed solid form over 5f and was not disgraced when stepping up to 6f.
    • Weaknesses: Failed to improve for the 6f trip last time out.
    • Suitability: Moderate, as he needs to prove he can perform at Group 2 standard over 6f.

3.50 Newbury: Metro Rod Pump Technology Partnership EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

(Class 4, 7f, Good To Soft, 13 runners, Win: £11,777)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Sticktoyourguns (2yo)31890, 0, 0, 0, 0
2King Of Thunder (2yo)248 / 24760, 34, 0, 0, 0

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Sticktoyourguns: Was a winner at Sandown on debut. He commands respect as the established form horse.
  • King Of Thunder: Showed some promise in an Ascot maiden. Was a disappointing favourite over 7f on AW recently but may show progress back on turf.

Spotlight Verdict (3.50 Newbury):
Several of the newcomers are interesting, particularly VERITABLE whose useful sister kicked off her career with a Newbury success. Castle Rock, Masked Warrior and Food For Thought are others to note, in that order of preference. They have the potential to reach or surpass the bar set by Sandown winner Sticktoyourguns, who nevertheless commands respect.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Sticktoyourguns:
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Proven winner who sets the standard on form.
    • Weaknesses: Faces several highly-regarded newcomers with potential to surpass his level.
    • Suitability: Respected, highly suitable as the established form horse.
  • King Of Thunder:
    • Strengths: Has shown promise in a previous outing (Ascot). Return to turf could prompt improvement.
    • Weaknesses: Disappointed severely as favourite on AW most recently.
    • Suitability: Moderate; needs to rebound from his disappointing run.

4.25 Newbury: Conundrum Consulting Handicap

(Class 3, 7f, Good To Soft, 11 runners, Win: £16,200)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Akkadian Thunder (5yo)335102, 40, 20, 10, 11
T2Mirabeau (3yo)318107, 34, 18, 14, 8
T2Tarkhan (GER) (6yo)31894, 45, 22, 11, 6

Note: Mirabeau and Tarkhan (GER) share the second highest TimeWise Master Total of 318.

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Akkadian Thunder: Versatile ground-wise. Won at Doncaster and ran well at Royal Ascot. Was an unlucky third at Chester in June.
  • Mirabeau: Is a C&D winner who subsequently ran well in the Mill Reef and Horris Hill Stakes at Newbury last autumn. He is dropped in grade and may improve further at this trip.
  • Tarkhan (GER): Showed very useful form on the continent. He is 0-7 in Britain, but recent form is encouraging, particularly a close second at Sandown (7f, soft) on his penultimate start. He could go well.

Spotlight Verdict (4.25 Newbury):
Several runners have interesting claims. The suggested first choice is LINWOOD, a C&D winner who has solid and progressive form. Arctic Thunder (second choice) and Akkadian Thunder bid to atone for luckless last-time efforts, while Mirabeau may improve further at this trip and Star Anthem has possibilities returned to Newbury.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Akkadian Thunder:
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Ground versatile and has high-class recent form (Royal Ascot, unlucky third at Chester). Expected to atone for previous bad luck.
    • Weaknesses: Only third choice in the Spotlight.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable, strong contender based on class and performance history.
  • Mirabeau:
    • Strengths: C&D winner who is dropped in class. Still has potential for improvement over this trip.
    • Weaknesses: Shares second rank.
    • Suitability: Good. Course proven and expected to run competitively following the drop in grade.
  • Tarkhan (GER):
    • Strengths: Shares second rank. Encouraging recent form, especially close second on soft ground. Useful continental form.
    • Weaknesses: Remains a maiden in Britain (0-7).
    • Suitability: Good, particularly if soft ground prevails, as his close Sandown run suggests.

5.00 Newbury: Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap (Str)

(Class 4, 1m, Good To Soft, 15 runners, Win: £13,085)

RankHorseTimeWise Master TotalRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR, 5LR)
1Woroodd (IRE) (3yo)304 / 30370, 42, 23, 10, 0
2Stem (IRE) (3yo)29184, 34, 22, 0, 0

Summary of Recent Form and Supplied Comments:

  • Woroodd (IRE): Won over 7f at Thirsk and Haydock in May. Finished a well-held sixth on her handicap debut at Sandown (7f, soft) three weeks ago.
  • Stem (IRE): Bolted up by nearly 10l in the novice race on this card last year (7f, heavy). His best run since returning was a second over 1m2f at Ascot (soft) a fortnight ago. He remains unexposed and is respected.

Spotlight Verdict (5.00 Newbury):
The unexposed Stem (second choice) and handicap debutant Eternal Force are near the top of the pecking order, while Gilet and Lord Montague are others with claims. However, despite an 8lb rise HERCULEUS (nap), is taken to follow up last month’s cosy C&D success, with the likelihood of more improvement to come.

Assessment of Master Top Two Chances:

  • Woroodd (IRE):
    • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating.
    • Weaknesses: Was well held on soft ground in her handicap debut. Has questions to answer if the ground remains soft.
    • Suitability: Questionable given recent performance on soft ground.
  • Stem (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven ability on heavy ground (bolted up here last year). Excellent recent form (second at Ascot on soft ground). Unexposed and is the second choice in the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Drop back in trip to 1m poses a question mark after running over 1m2f.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable for the ground, but the trip drop is a concern.

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