TimeWise Chronicles

Fairyhouse; The analysis of the Fairyhouse races, drawing on the TimeWise Master Ratings, recent form, supplied comments, and Spotlight Verdicts.

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3.25 Fairyhouse: Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Claiming Race

(Class 5, 7f, Yielding, 2yo, 10 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Blessings To You (IRE) (2)25478, 26, 0, 0
2Idiocracy (IRE) (2)24259, 31, 16, 10

Recent Form and Comments

  • Blessings To You (IRE): This two-year-old filly has recent ratings of 78, 26, 0, 0. She was beaten by single-figure lengths over 6f in a maiden and an auction race, suggesting this dropped grade should be less demanding.
  • Idiocracy (IRE): Her recent ratings are 59, 31, 16, 10. Her best run was a third in a 7.5f maiden at Roscommon. She finished only midfield in her nursery debut last time, though that was back at 6f. She holds clear claims at this level.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict states that this race is unlikely to concern too many, and IDIOCRACY appeals most dropped in grade and back over a better trip. Noodles is also mentioned as a definite player based on a previous maiden effort.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Blessings To You (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Holds the top TimeWise rating (254). The comments suggest the drop in grade is beneficial.
    • Weaknesses: Form is largely unproven at this level compared to the expectations suggested by her high rating.
    • Suitability: This claiming race should be less demanding than her previous runs.
  • Idiocracy (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Has clear claims dropping in grade. Her best run was over 7.5f, and returning to a similar trip (7f) is seen as a positive.
    • Weaknesses: Only midfield in her most recent nursery outing (at 6f).
    • Suitability: Appeals most dropped in grade and back over a better trip.

4.00 Fairyhouse: Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden

(Class 3, 7f, Yielding, 3yo+, 18 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Grecian Power (IRE) (4)29997, 0, 0, 0
2Win Me Over (IRE) (3)28370, 36, 0, 0

Recent Form and Comments

  • Grecian Power (IRE): This four-year-old mare has a recent rating of 97, from a belated debut in a 7f Curragh maiden in July (good) where she missed the break but stayed on nicely for third. She has a chance if building on that.
  • Win Me Over (IRE): This three-year-old filly has recent ratings of 70, 36, 0, 0. She showed promise on debut (7f, soft) in March and again when runner up behind the now 93 rated Deressa at Gowran (9.5f, yielding) in April. She lacks a recent run but holds leading form claims in first-time cheekpieces. She is the second runner for the top yard and is preferred by jockey Lordan.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict suggests that if WIN ME OVER repeats the level of form she showed when chasing home the now 93-rated Deressa at Gowran in April she could be hard to beat here. Tina’s Charm is mentioned as having place claims when dropped back in trip.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Grecian Power (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Achieved a high recent rating (97) on debut and possesses the highest overall Master Rating. She has form on good ground.
    • Weaknesses: Still lightly raced and needs to build on her debut effort.
    • Suitability: Has a chance if progressing from her initial run.
  • Win Me Over (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Holds leading form claims due to her runner-up finish behind a now 93-rated horse. She showed promise on soft ground previously. She is the stable’s preferred runner.
    • Weaknesses: Lacks a recent run, having been off the track for 173 days.
    • Suitability: If she reproduces her previous best form, she will be hard to beat.

4.35 Fairyhouse: Treo Eile Handicap

(Class 4, 7f, Yielding, 3yo+, 18 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Lady Pagasa (IRE) (4)27289, 33, 14, 10
2Bowman (IRE) (7)24881, 37, 12, 5

Recent Form and Comments

  • Lady Pagasa (IRE): This four-year-old mare has recent ratings of 89, 33, 14, 10. She has been “knocking on the door” in recent starts and was raised 3lb for a short head defeat at Leopardstown on her latest run (7f, good). She has run well on yielding to soft ground.
  • Bowman (IRE): This seven-year-old gelding has recent ratings of 81, 37, 12, 5. He is a nine-time winner and gave a pleasing start for his current yard when staying on from the rear for third at Leopardstown (7f, good). He was dropped 2lb for that effort and has won off higher marks in the past. His best turf form is on good ground.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict finds this a competitive heat and LOINGSEOIR is narrowly preferred among the two runners from the Michael Grassick yard, being better drawn than stablemate Verhoyen. Lady Pagasa and Clever And Classy should be thereabouts.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Lady Pagasa (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Highest rated horse. Is consistently competitive, having recently been narrowly defeated. Handles yielding to soft conditions well.
    • Weaknesses: Carries a 3lb rise for her latest defeat.
    • Suitability: In the mix again, showing consistent form at this trip and ground type.
  • Bowman (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: A multiple winner who was recently dropped 2lb following a good third. Can win off higher marks.
    • Weaknesses: His best turf form is specifically on good ground.
    • Suitability: Considered based on past winning form and recent solid run.

5.10 Fairyhouse: Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap

(Class 5, 7f, Yielding, 3yo+, 12 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Greatest Drama (IRE) (3)28591, 32, 16, 7
2Anvika (IRE) (4)278105, 29, 14, 11

Recent Form and Comments

  • Greatest Drama (IRE): This three-year-old filly has recent ratings of 91, 32, 16, 7. She is a Gowran 7f maiden winner and has run well in her last two handicaps, finishing third most recently despite a bad draw at Roscommon. She is ground versatile and highly respected.
  • Anvika (IRE): This four-year-old mare has recent ratings of 105, 29, 14, 11. Her handicap win came over this distance last summer. She is currently on a losing run, but she came from “a mile back” to be second in a huge field last week at Leopardstown (1m). Jockey Sam Coen claims 7lb.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict calls this a competitive handicap. Anvika came from a long way back to finish second last week, but it is suggested that it might be worth chancing LUSCIOUS, who was unplaced in the same race but travelled well to a point. Serialise, Greatest Drama, and others also have chances.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Greatest Drama (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Highest rated in the field. Consistent performer, placing third recently despite a bad draw. Ground versatile and already a 7f maiden winner.
    • Weaknesses: None explicitly listed, but the field is competitive.
    • Suitability: Highly respected and expected to run well.
  • Anvika (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Has a winning record over this distance from last summer. Showed impressive closing speed when second last week. Benefiting from a 7lb claim by Sam Coen.
    • Weaknesses: Stuck on a losing run.
    • Suitability: Considered a contender due to her strong recent effort and beneficial jockey claim.

5.45 Fairyhouse: Ballyhane Blenheim Stakes (Listed)

(Listed Race, 6f, Yielding, 2yo, 13 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Howdyadoit (IRE) (2)351117, 44, 20, 11
2Charles Fort (2)33497, 35, 21, 11

Recent Form and Comments

  • Howdyadoit (IRE): This two-year-old colt has outstanding recent ratings (117, 44, 20, 11). He is on a hat-trick after a maiden win and a 0.75l victory in the valuable Ballyhane Stakes. Rated 92, he has run well on easy ground.
  • Charles Fort: This two-year-old colt has recent ratings of 97, 35, 21, 11. Rated 93, he got off the mark in a 6f Cork maiden (yielding to soft) 12 days ago. He was previously second to Chicago Call on debut but could turn the tables on this easier ground. He is considered a leading chance.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict selects HOWD’YADOIT (nap), who ran well on easy ground on debut and can continue his progression, noting that trainer Ger Lyons has won this race the last two years. Charles Fort is cited as the biggest danger to the selection, as he could turn the tables on Chicago Call on easy ground.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Howdyadoit (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Top rated by a clear margin. On a hat-trick streak, including a valuable stakes race. Proven effectiveness on easy ground.
    • Weaknesses: None evident from the comments; highly regarded (nap).
    • Suitability: Big player for the yard that has dominated this race recently.
  • Charles Fort (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Recently broke his maiden over 6f on yielding-to-soft ground. Expected to handle the easy ground well. Rated 93.
    • Weaknesses: Was no match for Chicago Call on debut (though could reverse the form here).
    • Suitability: A leading chance and potentially the biggest danger to the favourite.

6.15 Fairyhouse: Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap

(Class 6, 6f, Yielding, 2yo, 10 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Cactus (IRE) (2)28687, 34, 17, 8
2Raphello (IRE) (2)28163, 45, 23, 12

Recent Form and Comments

  • Cactus (IRE): This two-year-old filly has recent ratings of 87, 34, 17, 8. She was runner-up in a 6f rated race last time out, which was a step forward, and she was previously placed off this mark in a nursery.
  • Raphello (IRE): This two-year-old colt has recent ratings of 63, 45, 23, 12. He was judged below par back over 5f last time (just behind Zarvali in a maiden) but now returns to 6f over which he was placed off 1lb lower in a nursery at the Curragh. He should run well.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict suggests this race may go to CACTUS who already has placed form in a race of this nature and her second in a rated event last time was another step forward. Raphello should also have some say, returned to 6f.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Cactus (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Highest rated horse. Has proven placed form in a nursery and showed improvement running second in a rated race recently.
    • Weaknesses: None noted, strong favourite by the Spotlight.
    • Suitability: Expected to run well and is the selection.
  • Raphello (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Returning to 6f, a trip over which he was previously placed in a nursery off 1lb lower. Should run well.
    • Weaknesses: Was below par over 5f last time.
    • Suitability: Expected to feature now back at 6f.

6.45 Fairyhouse: Return Of The Jumps On October 11th Handicap

(Class 6, 6f, Yielding, 3yo+, 18 runners)

RankHorse (Age)Master RatingRecent Form (LR, 2LR, 3LR, 4LR)
1Asdana (IRE) (3)27284, 30, 17, 11
2Cash Me (IRE) (3)271106, 20, 14, 0

Recent Form and Comments

  • Asdana (IRE): This three-year-old filly has recent ratings of 84, 30, 17, 11. She has been consistent this year, leading home a 5f Cork handicap field last month, resulting in only a 2lb rise.
  • Cash Me (IRE): This three-year-old colt has strong recent form, with ratings of 106, 20, 14, 0. He overcame trouble in running to spring a 50-1 surprise in a 6f Curragh maiden a month ago. There was no apparent fluke about the maiden win and he might be on a workable mark.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict describes this race as a “minefield”. Noble Nation and Curragh maiden winner Cash Me are considered. SHE’S SMART has to be on the shortlist in her current vein of form and returning to 6f is a plus.

Assessment of Chances (Master Top Two)

  • Asdana (IRE) (Rank 1):
    • Strengths: Consistent performer. Only raised 2lb after winning a recent handicap. Benefits from jockey Sam Coen riding again.
    • Weaknesses: Not described as progressive.
    • Suitability: Expected to go well given her consistency and minor weight rise.
  • Cash Me (IRE) (Rank 2):
    • Strengths: Recent maiden win at 50-1 suggests he is potentially well-handicapped (workable mark). The victory was not seen as a fluke. Strong recent rating (106 LR).
    • Weaknesses: Maiden win was a month ago, and this is a step up into a handicap.
    • Suitability: Considered a contender due to his unexposed nature in handicaps and promising recent win.

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