TimeWise Chronicles

Plumpton; This analysis details the Master Top Two rated horses, their recent form, supplied comments, the Spotlight Verdict, and an assessment of their chances for each race at Plumpton Park today, displayed in chronological order.

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2.20 Secure My Future (SMF) Handicap Hurdle

(Class 5, 3m 217y, 11 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stLand Girl’s Luck (245)
2ndLuna Run (240)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Land Girl’s Luck (TWR 1st)
Land Girl’s Luck has achieved three hurdle wins since cheekpieces were applied in April, scoring over distances between 2m1f and 2m4f on good ground. She did not perform well at Worcester last month but is quickly returning to a workable handicap mark. There is a suggestion that she could have untapped potential over staying trips.

Luna Run (TWR 2nd)
Luna Run secured her only win from 14 hurdling starts in a small three-runner field. However, she provided a very good performance when finishing third out of 16 runners behind Cinderello at Uttoxeter over 2m7f (good) in July.

Spotlight Verdict

“He’s been off since his chasing debut in May but course winner THE DARK EDGE (nap) has good claims if judged on his two hurdle runs at the end of last season, and Daire McConville’s useful 7lb claim is an added bonus. Fine By Me has largely been in good form since returning from a layoff this season and can threaten if the new cheekpieces have any positive effect. Flemen’s Tipple has more to prove but this C&D suits him well.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Land Girl’s Luck (245):
    • Strengths: Highest Master Rating; proven ability to win quickly when in form (three recent hurdle wins); benefiting from a drop back to a workable mark.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Needs to bounce back after a poor run at Worcester; the 3m 217y distance is slightly longer than her recent winning range.
  • Luna Run (240):
    • Strengths: Demonstrated aptitude for longer trips (2m7f third place); carries genuine each-way claims based on her Uttoxeter effort.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Poor overall strike rate over hurdles (1 win from 14 starts).

2.50 Happy 70th Birthday Martin Quinn Handicap Hurdle

(Class 5, 1m 7f 195y, 10 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stJet Patrol (270)
2ndLady Caro (260)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Jet Patrol (TWR 1st)
Jet Patrol recently returned to form with a ready win at Stratford (2m, good to firm) last month. However, he disappointed when sent off as the odds-on favourite to follow up a fortnight ago. His main concern is a tendency to race too freely, but he could still have “a fair bit more to offer”.

Lady Caro (TWR 2nd)
Lady Caro achieved her first hurdles victory (11th attempt) over this C&D (good) in March, defeating Character Testing after a close duel. She made a pleasing reappearance this month by finishing third at Stratford (2m, good) and is considered high on the list.

Spotlight Verdict

“Sain Et Sauf and Superstylin both look interesting on their stable debuts, while Everest (second choice) has scope to progress from his handicap-debut third and old rivals Lady Caro and Character Testing, who had a good tussle over C&D in March, also have claims. However, another chance is given to JET PATROL, who flopped when odds-on at Stratford a fortnight ago but looked rejuvenated when winning there in August and could still be on a very good mark.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Jet Patrol (270):
    • Strengths: Highest Master Rating; showed rejuvenation winning last month; judged to be potentially on a very good mark; selected as the winner.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Inconsistent, having flopped when odds-on recently; tendency to race too freely poses a risk.
  • Lady Caro (260):
    • Strengths: Proven C&D winner on good ground; good recent run upon reappearance; listed as a likely danger.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Faces competition from the Spotlight selection and other progressive horses.

3.20 Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)

(Class 4, 2m 4f 116y, 5 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stKajikia (294)
2ndYarborough (208)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Kajikia (TWR 1st)
Kajikia won his debut bumper at Ascot and subsequently ran an 8-length third in another bumper at Plumpton in April (under a penalty). The sources note that this bumper form is “head and shoulders above what his rivals have achieved”, giving him “cast-iron claims” on his hurdling debut.

Yarborough (TWR 2nd)
Yarborough has displayed modest form in his two previous maiden hurdles. Most recently, he was tailed off in a 1m3f Flat seller at Goodwood.

Spotlight Verdict

“This is such a weak maiden that KAJIKIA will surely only need to complete the course to collect. His bumper form is head and shoulders above what his rivals have achieved. Whenthemusicstops did show a smidgeon of promise in his last Irish point and he’s put up for the forecast.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Kajikia (294):
    • Strengths: Dominant Master Rating (294 vs 208); bumper form provides exceptional credentials for this weak maiden. He is expected to win easily.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: The only concern raised is that he “will surely only need to complete the course” to win, highlighting the nature of a hurdling debut.
  • Yarborough (208):
    • Strengths: None explicitly stated, but has hurdling experience.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Form is poor, including a recent tailed-off finish; the Spotlight analysis readily opposes him.

3.50 Friends & Family Remembering Norman Sharpe Handicap Hurdle

(Class 3, 1m 7f 195y, 5 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stHowth (338)
2ndNap Hand (289)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Howth (TWR 1st)
Howth is a useful Flat stayer who has made an impressive transition to hurdles, recording 4 wins from 5 starts. He recently defied penalties in a 2m1f novice on good ground. He is described as a “likeable type” and is “hard to knock”.

Nap Hand (TWR 2nd)
Nap Hand is a capable Flat performer up to 1m2f and a Stratford novice winner. However, his recent runs have been disappointing; he was turned over at long odds-on recently and ran moderately in his previous hurdle handicap.

Spotlight Verdict

“A tight handicap. AUCUNRISQUE is not as good as he was but the handicapper has given him a chance and he was not beaten far in this 12 months ago after a break. Howth is hard to knock but back on quicker ground it is Brave Knight who rates the principal threat.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Howth (338):
    • Strengths: Highest Master Rating; excellent strike rate over hurdles (4/5); considered a highly consistent type (“hard to knock”).
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Despite his form, the Spotlight prefers Brave Knight, suggesting that running back on quicker ground might favour his rival.
  • Nap Hand (289):
    • Strengths: Proven ability over novice hurdles.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Has been performing below expectations recently, showing “a backward step”; ranked behind three other runners in the Spotlight’s assessment.

4.20 Mary & Barry Faulkner’s Golden Wedding Handicap Hurdle

(Class 5, 2m 4f 116y, 9 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stMr Le Philosophe (271)
2ndJubilee Gold (238)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Mr Le Philosophe (TWR 1st)
Mr Le Philosophe started well after joining his current yard. However, he has since struggled in his last two starts after the handicapper aggressively raised his weight.

Jubilee Gold (TWR 2nd)
Jubilee Gold finished last season with competitive efforts in handicaps (2m-2m3f) on good or quicker ground. His handicap mark has remained largely unchanged during his break.

Spotlight Verdict

“Plenty of these are entitled to run well. Marginal preference is for SQUARE DU ROULE who had been threatening to win a race before an excusable failure last time. No Guarantee is a better horse now than when pulled up in this 12 months ago and he’s second choice ahead of Jubilee Gold. Ruler Of The River could also feature on her first run for Fergal O’Brien.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Mr Le Philosophe (271):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Currently struggling due to weight rise; the Spotlight suggests “others appeal more”.
  • Jubilee Gold (238):
    • Strengths: Competitive prior to his break, and returns off a stable mark. Is entitled to be involved if race-ready; named as the third preference in the Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Must overcome a layoff.

4.50 Kalm Kitchen Dauphinoise Dash Open National Hunt Flat Race (GBB Race)

(Class 5, 2m 1f 169y, 5 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stMasked Mistress (305)
2ndNelrose (232)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Masked Mistress (TWR 1st)
Masked Mistress built on an encouraging debut by winning comfortably against 13 other females at Uttoxeter (good) in July. She has strong claims despite carrying a penalty for that win.

Nelrose (TWR 2nd)
Nelrose made a “quite pleasing debut” when finishing third in a bumper at Worcester (good) in July. However, she was a disappointing favourite when only fourth of seven at Hexham last month.

Spotlight Verdict

“The most obvious answer is MASKED MISTRESS, who beat a big field of females at Uttoxeter in July and looks good enough to overcome her penalty. Nelrose was placed on her debut but her second run was disappointing and Mushtahrir, who was given a wind operation after his quite promising debut, may provide a bigger threat.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Masked Mistress (305):
    • Strengths: Highest Master Rating; strong winning performance last time out; confidently expected to overcome her penalty (“most obvious answer”).
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Has to carry a penalty.
  • Nelrose (232):
    • Strengths: Showed ability on debut (third place).
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Was disappointing in her second run; ranked below another rival (Mushtahrir) by the Spotlight.

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