TimeWise Chronicles

Southwell; This analysis identifies the Master Top Two rated horses in each Southwell race today, detailing their recent performance, professional comments, the official Spotlight Verdict, and assessing their overall chances.

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2.37 Golf And Gallop EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

(Class 3, 1m, 8 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stDevil’s Peak (272)
2ndExotic Baby (235)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Devil’s Peak (TWR 1st)
Devil’s Peak was well beaten on his Newmarket debut (7f, good to firm) last month. However, with the application of a hood, he looked unlucky when beaten a head at Haydock (1m, good) 17 days ago. His dam was a three-time winner on the AW in France.

Exotic Baby (TWR 2nd)
Exotic Baby, a significant purchase (125,000gns yearling), finished a staying-on fifth of 12 runners on his debut at Kempton (7f, Polytrack) 18 days ago, running at 25-1. Improvement is expected, and this extra furlong is predicted to suit him.

Spotlight Verdict

“The two newcomers represent stables that are fully capable of getting them ready first time so a market check is advised. However, DEVIL’S PEAK should take the beating after his unlucky defeat at Haydock last time, with his pedigree suggesting this new surface shouldn’t be a problem. The main danger looks to be Exotic Baby who is likely to build on his promising Kempton debut now upped in trip.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Devil’s Peak (272):
    • Strengths: Highest rated in the field; recent run showed marked improvement and he was unlucky not to win; pedigree strongly suggests suitability for the AW surface.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Only two previous runs, needing to confirm aptitude for Tapeta. Chances: Considered the one to beat.
  • Exotic Baby (235):
    • Strengths: Showed potential on debut; the step up in trip should suit, and further improvement is anticipated; rated the main danger.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Only one previous run.

3.07 Sky Sports Racing Virgin 519 Handicap

(Class 4, 1m, 14 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stDragon Icon (321)
2ndLeadenhall (292)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Dragon Icon (TWR 1st)
Dragon Icon is 0-13 since winning his first two career starts on Polytrack. However, he is capable of useful form, demonstrated by a third-place finish in the London Mile Series Final at Kempton (1m, Polytrack) 15 days ago. He has run well on Tapeta previously (at Newcastle) and is a player off the same mark he ran off last time.

Leadenhall (TWR 2nd)
Leadenhall has two turf wins this year, the latest at Haydock (1m) last month where he beat rival Degale by a neck. He ran with credit three times since, most recently finishing sixth of 14 at Ayr yesterday. He is having his debut on Tapeta.

Spotlight Verdict

“This looks open. Borgi and My Margie make the shortlist with both 2-2 around here, while the unexposed Degale is respected despite his sire’s modest record here. AW newcomer Rajapour and Chalk Mountain are others worth a second look, but the vote goes to DRAGON ICON who is off the same mark as when third of 14 in the London Mile Series Final at Kempton 15 days ago.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Dragon Icon (321):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; proven capability on Tapeta; recent useful form off the current mark.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Has a long run without a win (0-13). Chances: Selected by the Spotlight.
  • Leadenhall (292):
    • Strengths: Recent winning form on turf; running off a suitable mark; suggested as an each-way shout.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Making AW/Tapeta debut; ran recently (yesterday).

3.37 Free Bets On attheraces.com Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

(Class 5, 5f, 8 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stHypnotised (242)
2ndYellow Diamonds (238)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Hypnotised (TWR 1st)
Hypnotised showed significant improvement from his debut run. He finished fourth of 11 at Kempton (6f, Polytrack) 18 days ago, finishing ahead of two rivals running today. He has raced freely in both starts, suggesting that the drop in trip may suit him.

Yellow Diamonds (TWR 2nd)
Yellow Diamonds has been placed in all three career starts, including a recent third of eight on her first outing for Kevin Philippart De Foy at Wolverhampton (5f, Tapeta) 15 days ago. She would not need to improve much more from that effort in order to figure in this race.

Spotlight Verdict

“Bella Delizia and Yellow Diamonds (second choice) have both shown enough to be contenders in a race like this, but HYPNOTISED looks the one to be on after having had two of these behind when fourth at Kempton last time. The drop in trip may suit this free-going sort.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Hypnotised (242):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; confirmed form superiority over several rivals; the drop to 5f is expected to suit his running style.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: None noted. Chances: Strongly selected by the Spotlight.
  • Yellow Diamonds (238):
    • Strengths: Consistent placed form; proven on Tapeta; requires only minimal improvement; rated the second choice.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: None noted.

4.07 attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap

(Class 2, 5f, 14 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stAdrestia (376)
2ndCanon’s House (354)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Adrestia (TWR 1st)
Adrestia won the Palace Of Holyroodhouse Handicap at Royal Ascot (5f). Her subsequent defeats, including a near miss at Glorious Goodwood, are “hard to knock”. She was perhaps not at her very best in a Listed race last time.

Canon’s House (TWR 2nd)
Canon’s House has shown rapid progress this season. His momentum reached a new high when he held on narrowly to win a Class 2 C&D Racing League handicap 24 days ago. He is on a roll, and recent match practice on the track is beneficial.

Spotlight Verdict

“What is guaranteed is a furious pace as a few of these like to force the issue. THE MAN is not one of those but he should be able to sit just off the pace from his middle draw and he’s looked a sprinter going places in both his runs this year. He won his novice at this track. Azure Angel was behind The Man at York last time but she moved well for a long way and the addition of blinkers and the booking of Jamie Spencer could be helpful. Adrestia heads a lengthy list of other options.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Adrestia (376):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; proven high-class sprinter (Royal Ascot winner); excellent recent form.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: This is her first run on the AW.
  • Canon’s House (354):
    • Strengths: Proven C&D winner at this Class 2 level; carries recent match practice.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Needs to win off a 4lb higher mark than his last victory, requiring further improvement.

4.37 Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div I)

(Class 5, 5f, 14 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stEquity Law (284)
2ndAncient Times (270)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Equity Law (TWR 1st)
Equity Law is coming off a game win at Catterick 12 days ago. His form is strong now, and he still retains handicapping scope, making him one to consider. His previous two AW starts for Andrew Balding were not his best.

Ancient Times (TWR 2nd)
Ancient Times is enjoying a revival this year, securing handicap wins at Doncaster and Catterick, interspersed with two narrow defeats. Although his C&D win was during the Fibresand era, the current surface is expected to be suitable.

Spotlight Verdict

“Plenty of possibles in a warm race of its type. Thankuappreciate lurks on a dangerous mark, while Ancient Times, Zarzyni and Equity Law all have something to recommend them. Alhather (second choice) looked a sprinter to keep onside at Newcastle but IMPERIAL GUARD has dropped a long way in the weights, shaped better than the result at Chelmsford last time and ran well in his one previous visit to this track.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Equity Law (284):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; recent winning form on turf; still has handicapping scope.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Past AW form was disappointing.
  • Ancient Times (270):
    • Strengths: Good recent consistency; course experience from the Fibresand era suggests compatibility with the track.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: None noted.

5.07 Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap (Div II)

(Class 5, 5f, 14 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stKing’s Crown (269)
2ndTanjen (265)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

King’s Crown (TWR 1st)
King’s Crown has won two turf handicaps this summer and is a two-time Tapeta winner. His recent form includes a second place at Beverley three weeks ago, noted as his best effort of the year. He is steadily edging up the weights.

Tanjen (TWR 2nd)
Tanjen is a prominent racer who is 0-8 on turf but holds a perfect 2-2 record on the AW, including an easy C&D win 19 days ago. The second and fourth horses from that C&D race have subsequently won. Although she is up 10lb, she may not have reached her ceiling on AW.

Spotlight Verdict

“This looks the weaker of the two divisions and Tim Easterby looks to hold a strong hand courtesy of Spirit Of Applause and TANJEN (nap). The former could be well treated back on Tapeta but the selection is 2-2 on AW and her C&D win this month has been well advertised since. She hasn’t been missed with a 10lb rise but there could be more to come on this surface. Grace Angel (second choice), Catch Cunningham and Knicks look best of the rest.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • King’s Crown (269):
    • Strengths: Proven dual Tapeta winner; produced his best effort of the year recently.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Edging up the weights, making him potentially vulnerable.
  • Tanjen (265):
    • Strengths: Perfect AW record (2-2); impressive recent C&D winner; nominated as the nap.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Must overcome a significant 10lb weight rise for her recent win.

5.40 Join Southwell Golf Club Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

(Class 3, 1m 4f, 12 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stCharmaine (332)
2ndGreat Bedwyn (312)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Charmaine (TWR 1st)
Charmaine is compiling a solid profile in handicaps. She finished second over 1m3f at Southwell last month, emerging from the rear. It is suggested that she may have her share of weight now.

Great Bedwyn (TWR 2nd)
Great Bedwyn ran a solid race in defeat at Kempton (1m4f) recently. He is competitive at this track and is only 2lb higher than for his York win this season, making him a solid contender.

Spotlight Verdict

“In the hope they go a truer pace than at Kempton last time, ASSAIL is taken to reverse placings with Great Bedwyn and Mrs Twig. The selection’s previous RPR at Ascot wasn’t far off his career best. There are others to worry about, notably Byblos who is blinkered on his return to the scene of his sole success, and the admirably consistent Bulletin.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Charmaine (332):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; proven course form (second here recently).
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: May be carrying a high weight.
  • Great Bedwyn (312):
    • Strengths: Competitive form at Southwell; retains a workable handicap mark.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: The Spotlight suggests he was aided by a steady pace last time; the Spotlight favours Assail to beat him.

6.15 Download The At The Races App Fillies’ Handicap

(Class 3, 7f, 10 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stMaybe Not (331)
2ndForty Years On (323)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Maybe Not (TWR 1st)
Maybe Not won at Kempton (1m) last month and ran a “cracker” when finishing second of 18 back over 7f at York in a Class 2 event. She is an uncomplicated filly who is only 2lb higher than that strong effort.

Forty Years On (TWR 2nd)
Forty Years On is a dual novice winner (7f/1m) who confirmed her progressive nature by winning successfully on her handicap debut at Ascot (7f, soft). The 4lb rise is considered fair, and the ceiling of her ability is still unknown.

Spotlight Verdict

“Another competitive handicap on this excellent card. Forty Years On (second choice) is the striking improver and it’s hard not to like the chances of Maybe Not, while Whizz By has to be feared back here after an excusable failure on soft ground. However, ARABIAN LEOPARD could be interesting if handling this new surface as the return to 7f has to be a good thing.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Maybe Not (331):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; demonstrated high-class form (Class 2 second) recently; considered an uncomplicated filly.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Both previous AW runs were at Kempton, requiring confirmation of suitability for the Southwell surface. Chances: Highly respected but not the outright selection.
  • Forty Years On (323):
    • Strengths: Striking improver; proven over 7f, winning successfully on handicap debut; believed to have untapped potential; rated second choice.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Handicap debut win was on soft ground, needing to confirm performance on synthetics.

6.45 Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

(Class 4, 2m 0.5f, 5 runners)

RankHorse (TimeWise Master Rating)
1stSax Appeal (329)
2ndHatysa (295)

Recent Form & Supplied Comments

Sax Appeal (TWR 1st)
Sax Appeal is 7-22 on the AW and recently won at Kempton (2m, Polytrack) on Monday, where he enjoyed an uncontested lead. He is a proven winner over shorter trips at Southwell.

Hatysa (TWR 2nd)
Hatysa has performed well since stepping up to staying trips on Tapeta. She secured wins at Southwell (1m6f) in July and Newcastle (2m, Tapeta) 13 days ago. She is open to further progress as a 3yo.

Spotlight Verdict

“Despite the small field this may be run at a true pace with Sax Appeal and Dino Bellagio (second choice) in the field, provided the latter turns out again after his easy win at Chester on Saturday. HATYSA finished behind Sax Appeal and Zealandia at Newcastle last month, but her two wins either side mark her as a progressive young stayer, so she is taken to reverse the placings.”.

Assessment of Chances

  • Sax Appeal (329):
    • Strengths: Highest TWR; recent winner under a penalty; proven previous winner at Southwell.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Needs to secure an uncontested lead to be dangerous; faces Dino Bellagio who also likes to front-run.
  • Hatysa (295):
    • Strengths: Highly progressive young stayer; proven winning form on Tapeta at Southwell and Newcastle; selected by the Spotlight to win.
    • Weaknesses/Suitability: Ran below expectations in a race between her two recent wins.

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