Briefing Document: Horse Racing Analysis for 22nd September 2025

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Executive Summary

This briefing document provides a comprehensive analysis of the horse racing scheduled for Monday, 22nd September 2025, synthesizing race card data, expert analysis, market movements, and performance ratings across six meetings in the UK and Ireland: Fairyhouse, Fontwell, Hamilton Park, Leicester, Listowel, and Wolverhampton.

Key Intelligence Points:

• Spotlight Selections: Expert analysis has identified several key “nap” selections for the day, including Howd’yadoit in the 5:45 at Fairyhouse, James Park Woods in the 1:48 at Hamilton, and Yazaman in the 5:38 at Leicester. A notable development is the non-runner status of the 5:05 Leicester nap, Margorie, altering the outlook of that race.

• Top-Rated Contenders: Quantitative analysis from the One Day Ratings system highlights several top-rated horses poised for strong performances. These include Gold Link (rated 319) in the 5:20 at Fontwell, Lermoos Legend (rated 328) in the 3:05 at Fontwell, and Howd’yadoit (rated 351) in the 5:45 at Fairyhouse, whose high rating aligns with the expert spotlight selection.

• Significant Market Drifters: A notable trend of significant negative market sentiment has been observed for several runners. The most substantial drift is for Bear To Dream in the 1:40 at Leicester, whose odds have moved from 3.50 to 8.50, a 200% increase. Other major drifters include Luisa and Sure To Please, both seeing a 175% price increase. These movements indicate a sharp decline in market confidence.

• Trainer Form: The Trainer Report reveals notable performance trends. C M Collins (45% win rate), James Tate (38%), and Mickey Bowen (31%) are among the trainers demonstrating excellent recent form. Conversely, trainers such as N P Mulholland (0 wins from 12 runs) and Ollie Sangster (0 wins from 16 runs) are currently experiencing colder streaks.

• Impactful Non-Runners: Several key races have been directly impacted by withdrawals. At Fairyhouse, Noodles (3:25) was withdrawn despite being considered a “definite player.” At Leicester, the withdrawal of spotlight nap Margorie (5:05) opens up the race. At Wolverhampton, top-rated Midnight Rodeo (5:30) is also a non-runner. All identified non-runners have been integrated into the detailed race-by-race analysis.

Race Meeting Analysis

Fairyhouse

• Ground Condition: Yielding

3:25 – Winter Festival Tickets On Sale Claiming Race (7f) The Spotlight Verdict identifies Idiocracy as the most appealing runner, benefiting from a drop in grade and a return to a more suitable trip. While Noodles was considered a “definite player” based on a strong previous maiden effort, the horse has been declared a non-runner, significantly altering the competitive landscape.

4:00 – Kilminfoyle House Stud Fillies Maiden (7f) The Spotlight Verdict nap is Win Me Over, who holds “leading form claims” based on a runner-up performance behind the now 93-rated Deressa at Gowran in April. Tina’s Charm is noted for having place claims, while Perfect Base has been declared a non-runner. French recruit Carrara and the 4-year-old Grecian Power are also respected. The One Day Ratings place Grecian Power (299) and Win Me Over (283) as the top two contenders.

4:35 – Treo Eile Handicap (7f) This is viewed as a competitive heat. The Spotlight Verdict narrowly prefers Loingseoir, last year’s winner of this race, who is well-drawn and runs off the same mark. Stablemate Verhoyen is also noted. Lady Pagasa and Clever And Classy are expected to be in contention, while the handicap debutante Wegotogether is worth a market check. Lady Pagasa is the top-rated horse in this race according to the One Day Ratings (272).

5:10 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Handicap (7f) The Spotlight Verdict favors Luscious, who contested a Leopardstown handicap last week and is expected to benefit from the drop in distance. Other key contenders include Anvika, who finished strongly for second in the same Leopardstown race, along with Serialise and Greatest Drama.

5:45 – Ballyhane Blenheim Stakes (Listed, 6f) The Spotlight Verdict nap is Howd’yadoit, who is on a hat-trick after winning the valuable Ballyhane Stakes and is backed by trainer Ger Lyons’ strong record in this race. Charles Fort is identified as a potential danger, with C&D maiden winner Chicago Call needing to prove effectiveness on easy ground. Slaudeen and Alibah complete the shortlist. Treasured Royal is a non-runner. The One Day Ratings strongly support this view, placing Howd’yadoit (351) as the highest-rated horse of the entire day.

6:15 – Fairyhouse.ie Nursery Handicap (6f) The selection here is Cactus, who has placed form in this type of race and showed improvement when second in a rated event last time. Raphello is expected to be a factor on the return to 6f. Cactus is also the top-rated contender on the One Day Ratings (286).

6:45 – Return Of The Jumps On October 11th Handicap (6f) The Spotlight Verdict highlights this as a “minefield” but selects She’s Smart based on her current form and the suitability of the 6f trip. Noble Nation is considered interesting after a break, and Curragh maiden winner Cash Me is also considered. Asdana is a notable market drifter (from 4.50 to 9.00) but is the top-rated horse on the One Day Ratings (272).

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Fontwell

• Ground Condition: Good / Good to Soft

2:30 – Bet Clever BetGoodwin Conditional Jockeys’ Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f 162y) The One Day Ratings identify Hill Station (278) as the top-rated runner, trained by Dr R Newland & J Insole. The horse has strong recent form, having won its last race 16 days ago. Aquifolia, trained by N Mulholland, is a significant market drifter, with odds increasing from 7.00 to 17.00 (a 167% move).

3:05 – BetGoodwin Lightning Withdrawals Handicap Chase (2m 3f 104y) Lermoos Legend is the clear top pick according to the One Day Ratings, with a score of 328. Trained by M Bowen, the 10-year-old is in excellent form, having won its last two races.

3:40 – BetGoodwin Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (2m 1f 162y) Galactique (259), from the G & J Moore yard, is the highest-rated contender. Of the market drifters, Celtic Diligence has seen odds move from 29.00 to 67.00 (+136%), while Singing In Paris has moved from 7.00 to 15.00 (+133%).

4:15 – BetGoodwin Acca Insurance Handicap Hurdle (2m 1f 162y) Cawthorne Banker (279) is the top-rated horse. Trained by J & A J O’Neill, the horse won its last race 24 days ago. Fascinating Lips (256) is rated second-highest and has also experienced a significant negative market move (2.88 to 4.00).

4:50 – BetGoodwin Super Tommy Cannon Handicap Chase (3m 1f 210y) Ivane (297) is the top-rated selection. The J Owen trainee won its last outing 18 days ago. Masterdream (270) and Ballynaheer (276) are also highly rated, though Masterdream has drifted in the market from 5.50 to 10.00. Born At Midnight has seen a substantial price increase from 21.00 to 51.00 (+150%).

5:20 – BetGoodwin Steamer Of The Day Handicap Hurdle (2m 5f 164y) The top-rated horse is Gold Link (319) from the E Lavelle stable, a winner 24 days ago. Both Brilliant Light and War Lord have drifted in the betting market.

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Hamilton Park

• Ground Condition: Soft

1:48 – DX Academy Industry Expertise For You Apprentice Handicap (1m 1/2f) The Spotlight Verdict nap is James Park Woods, who is seeking a quickfire hat-trick after recent wins at Bath and Brighton. The One Day Ratings concur, placing the horse top with a score of 228. One More Bottle is feared most.

2:23 – PMA Recruitment Services & We Contracts EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes (6f) The Spotlight Verdict favors Passing Thought, who was narrowly beaten at Goodwood last month. Nevasca Cinza, who was well-backed on debut, is the second choice. However, the One Day Ratings place Nevasca Cinza (282) as the top-rated contender. Both horses have drifted significantly in the market.

2:58 – Sir Ian Good Memorial Nursery Handicap (5f) Concert has been declared a non-runner. The Spotlight Verdict selects Desert Jungle, noting the filly fared best of those on the far side at Thirsk last time. Dandy Style and Mighty Magnus are also noted. Dandy Style is the top-rated horse on the One Day Ratings (279).

3:33 – DX Academy Off The Tools Handicap (1m 4f) Jaminoz is a non-runner. The Spotlight Verdict selection is Tafsir, a previous winner of this race who is taken to post a first win of the year. Handicap newcomer Chico Magnifica is second choice.

4:08 – Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap (5f) The Spotlight Verdict’s vote goes to Never Dark, citing ideal conditions. The horse is also a notable market drifter (6.50 to 12.00). Impressor, who ran well yesterday, and Digital are also strong contenders. The One Day Ratings favor Impressor (247).

4:43 – Book Your Christmas Parties Here Handicap (6f) I Need Your Love is the selection from the Spotlight Verdict, with Simply Blue and Mister Sky Blue also mentioned. The One Day Ratings align, making I Need Your Love the top-rated horse (232).

5:15 – Hampton By Hilton Hamilton Park Confined Handicap (6f) The Spotlight Verdict picks Back Before Dark, for whom the return to a sprint trip is a positive. Kode Secret, who could build on a recent third at Leicester, is also highlighted. The One Day Ratings slightly favor Kode Secret (227) over Back Before Dark (178).

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Leicester

• Ground Condition: Good to Soft

1:40 – Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap (Div I) (7f) This race features the day’s most significant market drifter, Bear To Dream, whose odds have surged 200% from 3.50 to 8.50. Amathus is another drifter (+100%). The Spotlight Verdict’s selection is Candle Of Time, with Amathus and Homer Stokes also noted.

2:10 – Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap (Div II) (7f) Shark Two One is a non-runner. The Spotlight Verdict selects the less exposed All Too Beautiful, who is also the top-rated horse on the One Day Ratings (228). Grand Citadel and Ahamoment are solid contenders.

2:43 – Leicester Racecourse Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (7f) Dees Honey is a non-runner. The Spotlight Verdict tentatively prefers newcomer Miss Scott, from the powerful Gosden yard, over other debutantes like Palace Artois and Emilia CasanovaSydney Rock sets the standard based on experience.

3:18 – In Memory Of Jessica Gamble Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (6f) Piazza has been declared a non-runner. The Spotlight selection is Pull The Rug, who is believed to be on a favorable mark and should benefit from the return to 6f. Perfect Location and Q T Pie are noted as dangers.

3:53 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (7f) In this race for debutantes, the Spotlight Verdict suggests Moving Shadow for trainer Karl Burke. Go Rimbaud and Eklleem are considered the best of the rest.

4:30 – British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (1m 2f) The Spotlight Verdict leans towards the unexposed Desert Spring from the Gosden stable, expecting a big step forward from an encouraging 7f debut last year. While Majaz and Participle bring stronger form, they are seen as potentially vulnerable to improvers like Halcyonic and Berezka.

5:05 – Fantastic Fireworks Fillies’ Handicap (7f) The Spotlight nap, Margorie, is a non-runner. In her absence, Dream Illusion appears a strong contender, having chased home Autumn Rose recently and holding the top One Day Rating (256). Secret Sonata is another unexposed filly to consider.

5:38 – Leicester Racecourse Christmas Parties Book Now Handicap (6f) The Spotlight Verdict’s pick is Yazaman, who remains on a winning mark and is worth another try at 6f. Kranjcar is noted as a prolific winner this season but has to prove effectiveness on a stiff, straight 6f and has drifted from 3.50 to 6.50 in the market. On Edge and Wichahpi complete the shortlist.

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Listowel

• Ground Condition: Heavy

1:30 – Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (1m) Relying on the One Day Ratings, Sutton Hoo (270) is the top-rated horse. Castelluccia has experienced a significant market drift from 4.50 to 10.00 (+157%).

2:02 – Visit Millennium Machinery Open House Exhibition Handicap (1m) Lily Parr is a non-runner. The top-rated horse is Touted Plan (249). Stormie Outlook has seen its odds increase by 113%.

2:37 – Tote, Never Beaten By SP Maiden (1m) Money For Nothing is a non-runner. This race features several major market drifters, including four horses whose odds have moved to 251.00 (+213%). The top-rated contender is Moon Reign (288).

3:12 – Liam & Joan Healy Memorial Handicap (1m 1/2f) The One Day Ratings identify Annies Angel (280) as the top prospect. Market sentiment has turned against Presence, with odds drifting from 3.75 to 7.50.

4:20 – John McGuire Handicap (Premier Handicap) (1m 3f) Thatwilldoso (302) is the highest-rated runner. Clear Quartz has drifted significantly from 8.00 to 19.00 (+157%).

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Wolverhampton

• Ground Condition: Standard (AW)

4:25 – Race And Rest – Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Fillies Handicap (1m 1.5f) Salve Electra is a non-runner. The Spotlight analysis highlights Gretna Dreams as a key player, having won two recent turf races and a C&D contest last autumn. Romantic Spirit, with a strong course record, is also respected. This race features two major drifters: Luisa and Magic Runner, both moving from odds of 13.00 to 34.00 and 3.50 to 5.50 respectively.

5:30 – Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Nursery (7f) The top-rated horse, Midnight Rodeo, is a non-runner. This promotes Priestess (242), a recent winner, to the top of the ratings.

6:30 – Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap (Div II) (7f) The top-rated horse according to the One Day Ratings is Valadero (229), with Penelope Valentine (225) close behind. Two runners, Thismydream and Lady Diesel, have seen their odds drift significantly by over 100%.

7:00 – Free Digital Racecard At raceday-ready.com Handicap (7f) This race features four market drifters, including Fouette (+144%) and Lexington Jet (+120%). The top-rated horse is Backspin (258), who was a close second 11 days ago.

8:00 – Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Handicap (1m 4f) Top-rated Pergola is a non-runner. The next highest-rated contender is Zhang Fei (236).

8:30 – betcalculator.com Handicap (6f) Banana is the top-rated horse (231) but has seen its odds drift from 5.00 to 11.00 (+150%). Other significant drifters in the race include Nordic GloryRed Walls, and Savalas.

Comprehensive Market Analysis: Significant Drifters

The following table details the horses that have seen the most significant negative movement in the betting market, comparing their early price to their current price. This indicates a decrease in market confidence.

RaceHorseOdds1Odds2Move%
1.40 LeicesterBear To Dream (IRE)3.508.50200%
4.25 WolverhamptonLuisa13.0034.00175%
2.30 FontwellSure To Please13.0034.00175%
2.30 FontwellAquifolia7.0017.00167%
5.00 WolverhamptonAnywaythewindblows3.257.00167%
1.30 ListowelCastelluccia (IRE)4.5010.00157%
4.20 ListowelClear Quartz (IRE)8.0019.00157%
8.30 WolverhamptonBanana5.0011.00150%
6.30 WolverhamptonThismydream (IRE)11.0026.00150%
4.50 FontwellBorn At Midnight21.0051.00150%
2.37 ListowelMytimetoshine (IRE)101.00251.00150%
4.55 ListowelKhormor Syd (IRE)81.00201.00150%

Trainer Performance Overview

Analysis of trainer form provides critical context for runner performance. The following trainers have notable statistical profiles based on performance over the last 14 days.

In-Form Trainers:

• C M Collins: A 45% win rate (5 wins from 11 runners) in the last 14 days.

• James Tate: Demonstrating strong form with a 38% win rate (5 wins from 13 runners).

• Mickey Bowen: An excellent 31% win rate (5 wins from 16 runners) recently.

• Roger/Harry Charlton: A high 29% win rate (4 wins from 14 runners).

• C Gordon: A 29% win rate from 7 runners in the last two weeks.

Trainers to Note (Cooling Streaks):

• N P Mulholland: 0 wins from 12 runners in the last 14 days.

• Ollie Sangster: 0 wins from 16 runners in the same period.

• Evan Williams: Currently on a 0 for 10 streak.

• James Horton: 0 wins from 14 runners over the last two weeks.

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