Goodwood; This identifies the Top Two rated horses in each Goodwood race based on the TimeWise total rating, summarises their recent form and comments, includes the Spotlight Verdict, and assesses their chances.
The Goodwood races are listed in chronological order:
1.50 Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily “Confined” Conditions Stakes
Distance: 1m 1f 197y (1m2f)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Royal Playwright (340 Total) (Master RPR: 112)
Too Soon (295 Total) (Master RPR: 102)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Royal Playwright
0-8 since winning on debut last July. All subsequent runs have been Group/Listed races. Second in the Group 2 Royal Lodge (1m, soft) last September. Ran best race this season when 3rd of five in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor (1m2f, good to firm) last month.
Holds leading form claims.
Too Soon
Heavy-ground 2yo winner. Form includes 553 on his last three starts.
Can be headstrong and might appreciate this drop back in trip. Has shown some strong form but it’s a notch below what Royal Playwright and Mister Rizz have achieved.
Spotlight Verdict
Royal Playwright was third of five in a Group 3 at Windsor last month and holds leading form claims but he’s exposed and MISTER RIZZ may have more upside. He ran really well when third in a Listed race at Deauville last month and that was just his fourth start.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Royal Playwright
Possesses leading form claims having placed in Group races. Showed best recent form on good to firm ground.
Is considered exposed having been beaten in his last eight runs since his debut win.
Ran well on soft ground previously (Group 2 2nd) but recent best was good to firm.
Too Soon
Proven winner on heavy ground as a 2yo, indicating suitability for softer conditions. May benefit from the perceived drop back in trip.
Form is rated a notch below the other runners. Can be headstrong.
Heavy-ground winner, suggesting he handles soft conditions.
2.25 Juddmonte/ British EBF Maiden Stakes
Distance: 1m 1f 197y (1m2f)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
A Taste Of Glory (273 Total) (Master RPR: 74)
Study Of Words (256 Total) (Master RPR: 65)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
A Taste Of Glory
Finished 4th of 13 in a 1m AW contest at Kempton.
Showed some promise. Shaped as if this longer trip (1m2f) is likely to suit. Open to progress and enters calculations.
Study Of Words
Trailed home last of five (0) in an Ascot maiden (1m, soft).
May improve with the experience under his belt. A Frankel colt representing a powerful stable, he is certainly the type to do better.
Spotlight Verdict
The once-raced contenders are open to improvement. BAY OF BRILLIANCE (5-2) is the suggested first choice, representing last year’s winning connections, ahead of A Taste Of Glory then Study Of Words. Based on breeding and other factors, Alsad looks the more interesting of the two newcomers.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
A Taste Of Glory
Expected to improve and the 1m2f trip is likely to suit. Showed promise on debut.
Has only one modest run to date (4th on AW).
Expected to suit the longer distance (1m2f).
Study Of Words
Strong pedigree (Frankel colt) and powerful stable (C Appleby). Expected to improve greatly from his debut experience.
Trailed last in his debut race (Ascot, soft).
Sole previous start was on soft ground.
3.00 Heineken Handicap
Distance: 1m
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Alpha Crucis (331 Total) (Master RPR: 114)
Cerulean Bay (331 Total) (Master RPR: 111) Note: Alpha Crucis is listed marginally ahead due to a tie on Total score and possessing the higher Master RPR.
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Alpha Crucis
Record of 3-6 at Goodwood. Recently beat all bar a highly progressive 3yo at Sandown. Form figures include 1-1921 (wins/places for current stable).
Suited by ground softer than good. Record includes a ready success on this card last year and subsequent defeat of Rhoscolyn. Interesting back here.
Cerulean Bay
Campaign featured a hat-trick of wins. Is 0-8 this term, but ran good seconds (over 1m) at Ascot and the York Ebor festival last month.
Seems versatile as regards ground. Recent seconds suggest his turn is near. Shortlisted.
Spotlight Verdict
Rhoscolyn is highly respected in his bid to win this race for the third year running. However, as was the case last October he may have to play second fiddle to fellow Goodwood specialist ALPHA CRUCIS (nap), who most recently ran well behind today’s Foundation Stakes contender Saddadd. Cerulean Bay (third choice) is knocking at the door, while Ata Rangi is improving and Galeron remains attractively handicapped.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Alpha Crucis
Excellent course record (3-6) and preferred by the spotlight verdict. Handles ground softer than good. Showed strong form recently at Sandown.
None stated, highly suited to this track and conditions.
Highly suited to soft ground and Goodwood track.
Cerulean Bay
Seems versatile regarding ground. Has been running consistently well over 1m recently, coming close at Ascot and York. Due a win.
Has gone 0-8 this term.
Seems versatile regarding ground.
3.35 Virgin Bet Foundation Stakes (Listed Race)
Distance: 1m 1f 197y (1m2f)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Saddadd (382 Total) (Master RPR: 125)
Ancient Wisdom (362 Total) (Master RPR: 126)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Saddadd
Justified favouritism in 1m2f handicaps at Newbury (good to firm) and Sandown (soft) in his last two starts. Overall record is 3-5.
Highly progressive colt, just the type to make his mark at Listed/Group level. Strongly respected.
Ancient Wisdom
Group 1 winner as a 2yo (heavy ground). Bagged Group 3 honours last term. Ran well at that level on penultimate start (1m2f, good; at Sandown).
Leading player on ratings (126 RPR). Gelded since facing a stiffer task in the Coronation Cup.
Spotlight Verdict
Group performer Ancient Wisdom holds a leading chance back down in grade, assuming he’s in top form following a gelding operation and layoff. SADDADD looks a very strong rival with further improvement on the cards. Starzintheireyes and High Stock help to make it an interesting hand for the 3yos. Bolster (second choice) did well last autumn and he should play a major role on these terms.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Saddadd
Highly progressive, winning his last two starts on contrasting ground (good to firm and soft). Expected to excel at this level.
Stepping up in class from handicap races to Listed.
Proven on soft ground over 1m2f.
Ancient Wisdom
Highest rated runner (126 RPR). Group 1 winner pedigree, proven on heavy ground.
Returns from a layoff and has undergone a gelding operation. Fell short of Classic standard last term.
Proven ability on heavy and good ground.
4.10 British EBF £100,000 2Yo Fillies’ Series Final
Distance: 7f
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Wetsand (389 Total) (Master RPR: 97)
Timeforshowcasing (324 Total) (Master RPR: 101)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Wetsand
Thrice-raced filly. Wins (7f/1m) were on good to firm ground, including a neck win at Goodwood recently. Respectable effort in French Group 3.
Still open to further improvement and warrants respect. Last-time course winner.
Timeforshowcasing
Dual 6f winner. Ran well over 1m in the May Hill (Group 2) at Doncaster (good to soft) most recently.
New rating (101 RPR) gives her a leading chance at the weights back down in trip/class.
Spotlight Verdict
Being a last-time course winner who remains open to further progress, WETSAND fits the bill. Timeforshowcasing holds a leading chance provided her May Hill form is backed up. Mystic Moment (second choice) has solid claims, Della Pace is heading in the right direction and Mayaada has possibilities back on turf.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Wetsand
Course winner (Goodwood). Open to further improvement. Showed high-class ability in Group 3 company.
Wins have been exclusively on good to firm ground.
Suitability for soft ground is unproven based on wins.
Timeforshowcasing
Has the highest Master RPR (101). Drops in class from a Group 2 run. Ran on good to soft ground previously.
Drops back in trip from 1m.
Ran well previously on good to soft ground.
4.45 Livescorebet Fillies’ Handicap
Distance: 1m 6f
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Finalise (308 Total) (Master RPR: 93)
Spirit Of Jura (306 Total) (Master RPR: 92)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Finalise
Runner-up in first two starts (1m2f, good to soft/good to firm). Bolted up at Kempton (1m4f, AW) on latest start.
A well-bred 3yo with potential off her opening mark. Trainer (W Haggas) has won four of the last nine runnings of this race with 3yos.
Spirit Of Jura
3yo who has won four times this year (1m-1m5f, AW/good). Beaten just a head at Southwell (1m4f, AW) four weeks ago.
Could again be thereabouts.
Spotlight Verdict
The Irish mare STEPS IN THE SAND is enjoying an excellent season and, with the slow ground and the step back up in trip in her favour, she is taken to return to winning ways. William Haggas has an eyecatching record with 3yos in this race and runaway Kempton novice winner Finalise could be a huge danger (second choice). Likealot is open to further improvement.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Finalise
Unexposed 3yo with strong potential. Represents a successful stable in this specific race. Won convincingly on latest outing.
Her biggest win was on AW. Turf form so far is runner-up efforts.
Has run well on good to soft/good to firm ground.
Spirit Of Jura
Consistent form this year, winning four times. Came very close on her last start.
Unproven on slow ground.
Wins have been on AW/good ground.
5.20 Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Handicap
Distance: 6f
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Tiger Tulip (291 Total) (Master RPR: 85)
Noble Consort (280 Total) (Master RPR: 85) Note: Noble Consort and Serenity Dream are tied on Total (280) and Master RPR (85). Noble Consort is chosen as the next highest listed runner by TimeWise Total.
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Tiger Tulip
Won at Windsor and followed up at Newbury (both 6f, good) in May/June. Ran creditably when second on soft ground at Yarmouth in July.
Respected again.
Noble Consort
Won four of his last seven starts at 6f. Up 7lb after a solid sixth of 22 at York (good) in July.
Firmly in the picture. Drying ground would be a likely positive.
Spotlight Verdict
It should be close between Serenity Dream and Rory Rocket (second choice) again, both of whom command respect. At the top of the weights Noble Consort and Tiger Tulip are also firmly in the picture. The one to be on could be SERENITY DREAM who won over C&D last month.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Tiger Tulip
In excellent winning form recently (two wins). Proven ability on soft ground (2nd at Yarmouth).
None explicit.
Proven on soft ground.
Noble Consort
High recent strike rate (4/7). Ran creditably in a tough Class 2 race at York.
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