Kempton; The Kempton races for Wednesday, are analysed below, displayed in chronological order, identifying the Top Two rated horses based on TimeWise Total scores.
Ran very close when second of 12 in June over C&D, then won against 12 others nine days ago.
The 4lb penalty shouldn’t stop him playing a part.
Starfighter
Placed in three of six starts at Kempton. Won at Wolverhampton (1m4f, Tapeta) in January. Has not been seen since beaten 6l over that C&D in April.
Market may help discern if he’s ready.
Spotlight Verdict
Uzincso should go well under the penalty and Seraphic (second choice) is much respected, particularly if gaining market traction. However, GOLDEN DOVE (nap) can gain reward for a couple of good AW efforts in the spring and land her first race for this yard. Moab also needs considering.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Uzincso
Proven ability over the course and distance (C&D). Currently in winning form. The 4lb penalty is judged unlikely to stop him.
None explicit, but must confirm current winning form under the penalty.
Highly suited to the C&D and standard-to-slow conditions.
Starfighter
Proven winner on Tapeta (1m4f) and has placed three times at this course.
Returns from a layoff dating back to April. His readiness is dependent on market signals.
Proven course placed form.
4.30 Unibet/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B-D)
Distance: 1m (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Brigid’s Well (304 Total)
I Can Dance (268 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Brigid’s Well
Was down the field on debut (Goodwood, 7f, heavy) but subsequently made all over this 1m trip at Thirsk, beating a well-backed newcomer.
Has claims under a 7lb penalty.
I Can Dance
Achieved an RPR of 81 on debut (7f), where he was just beaten by the favourite, and recorded the same figure when outstayed over 1m on heavy ground recently.
Fancied to go one better. He has achieved more in RPR terms than Brigid’s Well.
Spotlight Verdict
Providing they don’t take each other on for the lead, this should rest between Brigid’s Well and I CAN DANCE. Charlie Johnston’s colt has achieved more in RPR terms and isn’t burdened with a penalty.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Brigid’s Well
Is a prior winner over this distance. Has experience of making all the running.
Must overcome a 7lb penalty. His debut on heavy turf was poor.
The AW surface is a new challenge in terms of a placed finish.
I Can Dance
Holds a superior RPR (81) compared to the field and does not carry a penalty. Represents a powerful stable known for 2yo success.
Was outstayed over 1m on heavy ground in his last run.
Has previous experience over 1m.
5.05 Racing TV Fillies’ Handicap (London Mile Series Qualifier)
Distance: 1m (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Hilltop (261 Total)
Suzuka (246 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Hilltop
Won over 7f on turf last month and followed up at Wolverhampton on Saturday.
Carries a 5lb penalty but is 1lb “well in”. Returning to 1m and drawing stall 11 casts doubts over her follow-up bid.
Suzuka
Held every chance when third at Chelmsford and Lingfield (both 1m) last month.
Needs to settle better in the race. Might need a fast pace if dropped in from her high draw.
Spotlight Verdict
Last-time-out winners Hilltop and Midsummer Music (favoured) certainly aren’t bombproof and LITTLE SHE could be worth chancing. Her Salisbury fourth in June reads well and she was noted doing some nice late work on a track that wouldn’t have suited last time.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Hilltop
In excellent winning form recently and runs 1lb “well in” despite the penalty.
Doubts concerning her ability to follow up back at 1m, compounded by a wide draw (Stall 11).
Recent winning form on AW.
Suzuka
Consistently places over 1m AW. Represents R Varian, whose stable is running to form (65%).
Her running style suggests she needs to settle better. A high draw makes her reliant on pace.
Always prominent when narrowly beaten (nose) on debut at Southwell (6f, Polytrack) three weeks ago.
Sets a clear standard.
Fiery Damsel
Showed promise when finishing fourth at Southwell (6f, Polytrack), three weeks ago (behind Angel Love).
Was a weak betting proposition on debut (16-1 shot). Expected to be capable of better.
Spotlight Verdict
Angel Love (second choice) sets a clear standard but TRIO attracted good support ahead of her debut last month and can build on that down in trip. Pilgrim’s Progress and Uthooba are just two of a handful of interesting newcomers.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Angel Love
Established the clear standard of form based on her debut performance.
Remains a maiden.
Proven over the distance and surface (Polytrack).
Fiery Damsel
Expected to improve upon her initial run.
Must find ground on Angel Love after running four lengths behind her previously.
Experienced over 6f on Polytrack.
6.10 Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap (JC Grassroots/London Middle Distance Qual’)
Distance: 1m 2f 219y (1m3f) (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Masterinthewoods (277 Total)
Crystal Mariner (271 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Masterinthewoods
Made his turf breakthrough at Haydock (10.5f) in August; had a lesser effort when upped in grade at Newbury (1m2f) three weeks later.
Still not ruled out.
Crystal Mariner
Inconsistent form, but won at Salisbury in July; ran close to career best when second at Doncaster (1m2f, good to soft) ten days ago.
In calculations from the same mark.
Spotlight Verdict
Crystal Mariner will make his presence felt if on a going day, while Blast The Dream could have more to offer at this trip. Kingkeer would be a threat if ready but this can be fought out by two unexposed 3yos, with WINE DARK SEA getting the nod over Baikal.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Masterinthewoods
Trainer E Lavelle has a 100% run-to-form percentage recently. Has course experience from his first two starts.
Recent run in a higher grade was disappointing.
Suitability for this trip on AW after recent turf runs is the main question.
Crystal Mariner
Recently ran very well (second). Has previously run well at this course.
Is noted for inconsistency.
Proven course experience.
6.40 Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap (Div I)
Distance: 7f (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Storm Free (313 Total)
Philanthropist (294 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Storm Free
All runs over 6f. Finished third in a Racing League handicap at Newcastle last time.
Highly likely has more to offer over this new 7f trip.
Philanthropist
Won his first two Tapeta starts and finished third in hot handicaps on his last two starts.
Is a major player if taking to Polytrack.
Spotlight Verdict
Philanthropist is a solid option… while Storm Free (second choice) could have more to offer over this new trip… The one to be on could be DIXIELAND BLUES, though. His novice/maiden form reads very well, dropping in trip looks a smart move….
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Storm Free
Unexposed potential over 7f. Benefits from a 5lb claim.
Has only raced over 6f previously.
First attempt at 7f.
Philanthropist
Strong handicap form, placing third recently in hot races. First-time visor is applied.
Needs to successfully transfer his best form from Tapeta to Polytrack.
Surface suitability is the key factor.
7.10 Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap (Div II)
Distance: 7f (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Stanley Spencer (328 Total)
Arctic Dawn (308 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Stanley Spencer
Won four times over 6f, including his last race out. Up 4lb.
Was narrowly beaten the one time he ran 7f at this track.
Arctic Dawn
Put low-key efforts behind him when winning readily over C&D 19 days ago (PB). Up 5lb.
Must handle the 5lb rise.
Spotlight Verdict
Arctic Dawn (second choice) and Stanley Spencer hold obvious claims but HUSCAL has unfinished business over 7f and is preferred. His close second at Doncaster last month to a rival who bolted up next time reads particularly well.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Stanley Spencer
In winning form over 6f. The 5lb claim makes him well-treated against the 4lb rise.
His only previous 7f run resulted in a narrow defeat.
Proven course winner over 6f.
Arctic Dawn
Recent C&D winner who produced a personal best effort.
Must carry a 5lb penalty for the win.
Highly suited to the C&D (Polytrack).
7.40 Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap
Distance: 7f (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Kracking (239 Total)
Flag Carrier (217 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Kracking
Prominent racer whose form in the first half of the year puts him firmly in the reckoning.
More recent runs have been below that level.
Flag Carrier
Won over C&D in January 2024 and at Chelmsford in March.
Has disappointed in his last two starts. Headgear (blinkers) return.
Spotlight Verdict
Mbappe should be in the thick of it, while Jazzit and Apple Of My Eye (second choice) are unexposed 3yos who have their best days ahead of them. His form figures are unappealing but there are grounds for expecting a revival from SPIRIT LEAD ME now down in class, returned to AW and fitted with cheekpieces. He is thrown in on his 2yo AW form, including a course win.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Kracking
Benefits from a drop into Class 6. Holds strong form earlier in the year.
Needs to recapture his previous form standard.
Known prominent running style.
Flag Carrier
Proven C&D winner.
Has disappointed in recent outings.
Proven C&D suitability.
8.10 Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap
Distance: 6f (AW)
Master Top Two (TimeWise Total):
Muma Myflo (235 Total)
Initial Blue (223 Total)
Recent Form and Supplied Comments
Horse
Recent Form Summary
Supplied Comments
Muma Myflo
Unexposed with only five starts. Finished third in her second handicap at Newmarket (5f, good to firm), running on well.
Makes her debut on AW.
Initial Blue
Happier on Polytrack than turf. Was a creditable third over C&D in August.
A slow start hampered him in his last run (at 7f).
Spotlight Verdict
Mollymook is respected on her stable debut, while Initial Blue (second choice) was a solid third over C&D in August and should go well. However, this may be best left to unexposed MUMA MYFLO, who shaped like a good prospect for AW sprinting on her third at Newmarket.
Assessment of Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses/Concerns
Suitability
Muma Myflo
Unexposed with strong potential, shaping like a future AW sprinter.
This is her debut on the AW surface.
Expected to suit AW sprinting.
Initial Blue
Has solid C&D form (3rd place). Prefers the Polytrack surface.
TimeWise Chronicles 
Leave a comment