1. The Favorite Has a Surprising Achilles’ Heel

The clear favorite for the race, You Oughta Know, comes with a significant risk that isn’t obvious from his recent form. While the horse “hacked up at Wexford” in its last race, winning easily by 23 lengths, that performance is noted as being “hard to evaluate”. The real story, and the hidden concern, is the horse’s relative inexperience. While he possesses “high-class bumper form,” the record shows it “took him a little while to get the hang of things over fences,” a crucial detail that adds context to his profile for this demanding chase.

This subtle but crucial point is emphasized by a direct comment from the stable. Assistant trainer Patrick Mullins adds a layer of expert caution with his assessment:

“If his inexperience doesn’t catch him out, he should be very dangerous off his mark.”

That single “if” from one of the most respected minds in racing transforms the favorite from a sure thing into a calculated risk. It’s a classic example of how a quiet word from the stable can add a layer of doubt that the odds don’t reflect.

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2. A Story of Redemption Could Be on the Cards

One of the most compelling narratives in racing is that of a top contender looking for redemption after a dose of bad luck. In the Kerry National, that story belongs to Anyway. He was a strong contender in the prestigious Galway Plate, but his race ended abruptly when he “unseated at fourth”.

But his story is much more than just overcoming misfortune. In a dramatic twist that directly challenges the favorite’s status, Anyway has already proven his superiority over the market leader, having beaten You Oughta Know over 2m4f at Kilbeggan in June. His trainer, Ken Budds, frames the Galway incident as a mere blip on the radar:

“He was unlucky at Galway but these things happen and all has been good with him since.”

This context changes everything. Anyway isn’t just a horse hoping for better luck; he’s a proven talent who has already bested the favorite in a head-to-head contest. His quest for redemption now carries the weight of established class.

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3. Don’t Ignore the Longshot Who Ran a “Cracker”

While many will be looking at the top of the betting, the analysis reveals a powerful story around Shecouldbeanything, a horse that might otherwise be overlooked. In her last outing, she delivered a “fine effort when third at 33-1 in the Galway Plate”, a performance that far exceeded market expectations. Crucially, the expert analysis noted she was “faring best of those held up,” a technical insight signaling a horse with tactical grit.

This performance was no fluke, and the confidence from her top-tier trainer, Gordon Elliott, is a clear signal that this horse is a serious threat. This confidence is well-founded; as a four-time winner over fences, her Galway run was built on a solid foundation. His language is not hopeful; it’s assertive and confident:

“She ran a cracker in the Plate and must have a big chance.”

When a longshot delivers a strong, tactically impressive performance and is then backed by the explicit confidence of a leading trainer, it’s a classic sign of a horse that could cause a major upset.

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4. The Pace of the Race Could Turn Everything on Its Head

One of the most technical but crucial factors in any race is the pace. It determines which running style is favored and can completely upend expectations. The expert “Pace Forecast” for the Kerry National is “Very Strong,” and an analyst knows this creates both winners and losers.

The Timeform analysis provides a specific “insider” angle on how this fast pace could play out, highlighting a horse that stands to benefit directly while another may suffer:

“Hold-up horses aren’t dominant here by and large but a very strong pace can see that change and… SPANISH HARLEM (FR) will probably be vulnerable and SAN SALVADOR (IRE) will probably be favoured in that case.”

This is a critical insight. The expected fast pace is likely to disadvantage front-runners like Spanish Harlem, tiring them out in the final stages. This scenario plays directly into the hands of a horse like San Salvador, who “usually races off pace”. This dynamic is an expert-level angle that could flip the entire outcome, making him a horse to watch purely based on the race’s predicted structure.

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5. The Analyst’s Verdict Points to a Forgotten Contender

Sometimes, the most valuable insight is the one that seems to contradict the recent form. The official Timeform “Analyst’s Verdict” selects Thecompanysergeant as its top pick, a surprising choice given his last run, where he was a “never-dangerous 20¾ lengths ninth of 22… in Galway Plate”.

However, the experts are looking beyond that single poor result. Their reasoning is based on concrete evidence of his underlying quality. The analyst notes that while “The Galway Plate didn’t go right for Thecompanysergeant… he showed more than enough in the spring to suggest that he has a good handicap in him”. That evidence is his excellent 2¾ lengths second of 20 to Jagwar in the Plate Handicap Chase at Cheltenham, a high-class performance that serves as the entire basis for this bold call.

This expert opinion is reinforced by the horse’s trainer, Gavin Cromwell, who confirms that the horse has been specifically prepared for this moment:

“We’ve been targeting him at this, so hopefully he shows up.”

This is a classic example of experts looking past a single bad performance to see the bigger picture. They are betting on proven, top-tier Cheltenham form over recent disappointment, a strategy that often uncovers significant value.

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Conclusion: The Stories Behind the Stats

A horse race is never just about favorites and odds; it’s a drama with multiple acts. The racecard for the Kerry National is filled with these hidden narratives—stories of a favorite’s subtle flaw, a contender’s quest for redemption, a longshot’s quiet confidence, and an expert’s counter-intuitive pick. These are the insights that turn a list of numbers into a compelling sporting event.