Performance Review: Leading Jockeys & Trainers (September 24th, 2025)

1.0 Introduction

This review provides a data-driven performance analysis of key trainers and jockeys with runners scheduled on September 24th, 2025. The evaluation is based on recent statistical data, including current form, historical win rates, and profitability, to offer actionable insights for racing industry professionals.

2.0 Trainer Performance Analysis

The strategic importance of assessing a trainer’s current form cannot be overstated. A trainer’s performance over the last 14 days, particularly when contrasted with their long-term record, can be a powerful indicator of a stable’s current health, strategic horse placement, and overall potential for success. This analysis focuses on several prominent trainers with multiple runners today.

2.1 W. P. Mullins

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	3/14
Last 14 Days Win %	21%
Last 14 Days P/L	-£7.55
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	517/2144
Last 2 Years Win %	24%
Last 2 Years P/L	-£199.85
Runners Today	5 at Listowel

Analysis: While the stable’s 21% win rate over the last 14 days represents a minor cooling from its formidable 24% two-year baseline, it remains at a level of high consistency. The negative P/L figures for both periods suggest that while the stable wins frequently, its runners are often well-fancied and offer little market value, a typical characteristic of a dominant force.

Qualitative reports suggest stable jockey Paul Townend has chosen Davy Crockett in the 2.40 at Listowel, indicating confidence in this unbeaten prospect. Another runner, Night Moon (2.05 Listowel), was a beaten favourite on his last run but is expected to improve on the softer ground today.

Assessment: The Mullins stable is operating at a consistent, high-performance level with strong prospects at Listowel.

2.2 Gordon Elliott

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	1/31
Last 14 Days Win %	3%
Last 14 Days P/L	-£22.50
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	386/2820
Last 2 Years Win %	14%
Last 2 Years P/L	-£852.73
Runners Today	11 (4 at Perth, 7 at Listowel)

Analysis: The data for Gordon Elliott’s stable indicates a severe short-term performance dip, with a 3% win rate over the last 14 days representing a drop of over 78% from his established 14% two-year average. Despite the high volume of runners, this sharp downturn is a significant red flag. Today, he sends a substantial contingent of 11 horses across the meetings at Perth and Listowel.

Assessment: Gordon Elliott’s stable is statistically out of form, and a cautious approach is warranted despite the high volume of runners.

2.3 A. M. Balding

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	13/70
Last 14 Days Win %	19%
Last 14 Days P/L	+£18.54
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	355/2179
Last 2 Years Win %	16%
Last 2 Years P/L	-£379.12
Runners Today	4 at Goodwood

Analysis: A. M. Balding’s stable is performing above its baseline, with a 19% win rate exceeding its 16% two-year average. The key indicator of current form, however, is the positive level-stakes profit of £18.54 over the last fortnight, which signals that the stable’s winners have been secured at valuable odds. The operation has four runners scheduled for the Goodwood card today.

Assessment: The Balding stable is currently operating in strong and, notably, profitable form.

2.4 Charlie Appleby

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	5/19
Last 14 Days Win %	26%
Last 14 Days P/L	-£4.09
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	190/643
Last 2 Years Win %	30%
Last 2 Years P/L	-£25.60
Runners Today	2 at Goodwood

Analysis: Charlie Appleby’s statistics reaffirm his status as an elite-level trainer. His recent win rate of 26% is exceptionally high and only slightly below his remarkable 30% two-year average. This demonstrates a consistent ability to prepare horses to win at the highest level. He has two runners scheduled at Goodwood today.

Assessment: The Appleby operation continues to perform at a consistently elite level, making his runners noteworthy contenders.

This detailed review of trainer form provides a critical foundation, but success on the track ultimately depends on the jockeys executing the race plan.

3.0 Jockey Performance Analysis

Jockey form is a critical, often dynamic, factor in race analysis. A jockey’s recent success rate, profitability, and overall confidence can significantly influence a horse’s performance in a race. Evaluating their current statistics is therefore essential for a complete assessment of a horse’s chances.

3.1 Oisin Murphy

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	16/51
Last 14 Days Win %	31%
Last 14 Days P/L	+£30.19
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	424/1933
Last 2 Years Win %	22%
Rides Today	7 at Goodwood

Analysis: Oisin Murphy’s recent data indicates a jockey at the peak of his powers. His 31% win rate over the last 14 days represents a significant increase from his already high 22% two-year baseline. Critically, this hot streak has been highly profitable, returning £30.19 to a level stake. He has a full book of seven rides at Goodwood, including key partnerships with the in-form A. M. Balding stable on horses such as Royal Playwright (1.50) and High Stock (3.35).

Assessment: Oisin Murphy is currently one of the most in-form and profitable jockeys riding today.

3.2 Sean Bowen

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	7/21
Last 14 Days Win %	33%
Last 14 Days P/L	+£11.46
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	345/1631
Last 2 Years Win %	21%
Rides Today	6 at Perth

Analysis: Sean Bowen’s recent statistics are outstanding, with a 33% win rate in the last fortnight performing well above his impressive 21% two-year average. This run of success has also been profitable, yielding a positive return of £11.46. He has six rides at Perth, including bookings for Olly Murphy (Wandering Ego, Karton Plein) and M. Bowen (Statuario).

Assessment: Sean Bowen is riding with exceptional skill and confidence, delivering both a high strike rate and profitability.

3.3 Paul Townend

Metric	Statistic
Last 14 Days Wins/Runs	2/4
Last 14 Days Win %	50%
Last 14 Days P/L	-£0.43
Last 2 Years Wins/Runs	248/683
Last 2 Years Win %	36%
Rides Today	4 at Listowel

Analysis: Paul Townend is operating at the peak of his powers. His remarkable 50% win rate in the last 14 days, though from a small sample size, is an exceptional peak that builds upon his already world-class 36% win rate over the last two years. Today, he partners exclusively with trainer W. P. Mullins for all four of his rides at Listowel, including on fancied prospects Davy Crockett (2.40) and You Oughta Know (4.23).

Assessment: As a top-tier jockey in superb form, Paul Townend’s mounts demand the utmost respect.

While individual form is a key indicator, analyzing established partnerships and broader market sentiment can provide an additional layer of insight.

4.0 Market Sentiment and Notable Partnerships

Analyzing betting market data and key partnerships offers valuable context. The betting markets often serve as a barometer for collective expert opinion, with significant price movements indicating shifting confidence. Furthermore, established and successful trainer-jockey pairings often signal a focused and concerted effort for success on the day.

4.1 Notable Partnerships of the Day

• W. P. Mullins & Paul Townend: This premier National Hunt partnership teams up for four rides at Listowel, including the highly anticipated Davy Crockett (2.40) and You Oughta Know in the feature Guinness Kerry National (4.23).

• A. M. Balding & Oisin Murphy: With both trainer and jockey in excellent form, this partnership at Goodwood is particularly noteworthy. They combine on multiple runners, including Royal Playwright in the 1.50.

• Gordon Elliott & Jack Kennedy: Despite the stable’s recent quiet spell, this formidable duo has multiple entries at Listowel, highlighted by their runner Three Card Brag in the feature race, the Guinness Kerry National.

4.2 Market Movers

The following horses have seen the most significant positive market support, suggesting increased confidence from informed sources.

Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Race	Initial Odds	Current Odds
Simply Ruby	Ed Walker	Hollie Doyle	4.45 Goodwood	10.00	4.50
Alright Darling	D G Murphy	Brian Hayes	3.15 Listowel	17.00	7.50
Bearami Creek	Peter Fahey	Sam Ewing	3.15 Listowel	5.00	2.75

Analysis: The halving of Simply Ruby’s odds from 10.00 to 4.50, and the dramatic contraction of Alright Darling’s price from 17.00 to 7.50, represents a significant re-evaluation of their chances and signals powerful market confidence that cannot be ignored.

4.3 Market Drifters

Conversely, these horses have seen their odds lengthen considerably, which can signal waning confidence or concerns about their suitability for today’s race.

Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Race	Initial Odds	Current Odds
Incensed	Mrs A Perrett	Robert Havlin	4.45 Goodwood	7.50	29.00
I Started A Joke	C Byrnes	Mr P Byrnes	2.05 Listowel	2.88	7.00
Arch Empire	Gordon Elliott	J W Kennedy	2.40 Listowel	8.50	26.00

Interpretation: The dramatic drift of Incensed from 7.50 to 29.00 indicates a near-total collapse in market confidence. This level of negative sentiment often precedes a poor performance and suggests informed sources have significant concerns.

These combined data points provide a robust framework for a final assessment of the day’s key figures.

5.0 Conclusion and Final Assessment

By synthesizing recent performance data with market indicators, a clear picture emerges of the trainers and jockeys positioned for success today. The data points to two distinct groups for today’s racing:

Ones to Watch

• Trainers: A. M. Balding and Charlie Appleby are both in excellent form, with the former demonstrating notable profitability. Their runners at Goodwood warrant close attention.

• Jockeys: Oisin Murphy and Sean Bowen are riding at the top of their game, boasting exceptional win rates and positive financial returns over the last fortnight.

Proceed with Caution

• Trainers: Gordon Elliott’s recent statistics show a significant and uncharacteristic dip in performance compared to his long-term baseline, suggesting a cautious approach to his runners is prudent.

This multi-faceted data analysis provides a comprehensive and objective foundation to inform professional assessments and strategic decisions for the day’s racing.