Race Setup, Pace & (No) Draw

• Class/conditions: €60,000 Listed handicap for 4-y-o hurdlers, full field (max pace pressure).
• Pace: Very Strong on Timeform — expect a relentless gallop. Likely to blunt tearaway/front-run types and favour patient rides and strong late closers.
• Draw: Not applicable over hurdles.
• Track nuance: Flatter than Galway; suits horses who can travel and sustain a finish.

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Strongest Contenders, Dangers & Live Outsiders

Proven / Progressive / Promising (P/p)

A) Strongest Contenders

• Messerschmitt (p) — In the form of his life since the tongue-tie; unlucky at Galway; pace set-up screams late closer. Beat Last Kingdom on their Galway line. Profile aligns perfectly with today’s ask.
• Shaboozee (p) — Rapid improver seeking a hat-trick; hammered rivals last twice. Main query: 11lb rise + slightly softer ground than ideal + strong pace could force him earlier than perfect.
• Money Dancer (P) — Visual Galway demolition; unexposed filly making handicap debut off 116 looks lenient. Handles a bit of ease; big late-run profile.
• Last Kingdom (p) — Strong spring, cheekpieces first time, flatter track a plus vs Galway. Handles ease; Mullins/Townend angle is potent.

B) Main Dangers

• Day Trader (P) — C&D winner, lightly raced, handicap debut off 118; very plausible improver at this track.
• Slurricane (p) — Targeted since Cheltenham; wants a bit more rain, but fitness topped up on the Flat; last year’s winning yard.
• Puturhandstogether (Proven class) — Fred Winter winner; huge weight (OR 140) and wants it drier. Held-up style ideal for pace, but burden/ground temper confidence.

C) Interesting Outsiders

• Luker’s Tipple (P?) — New to Gavin Cromwell; switch could spark improvement; a bit quirky but dangerous if settling.
• Autumn Twist (p) — Solid dual-code summer form; first-time blinkers could eke out a bit more, needs a hurdle step forward.
• Kool One (p) — Thriving but big class hike.

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Runner Scores & Suitability Notes (out of 10)

• Messerschmitt — 8.5/10: Strong finisher, tongue-tie working, Galway upgrade; pace ideal; handles ground. (p)
• Shaboozee — 8/10: Big improver; 11lb hike + slightly softer ground the checks. Needs to relax in the heat. (p)
• Money Dancer — 8/10: Handicap debut after wide-margin win; unexposed and fits pace; mark could underestimate. (P)
• Last Kingdom — 7.5/10: Track/headgear positives; handles ease; fair mark. (p)
• Day Trader — 7.5/10: C&D and unexposed; pace/track okay; still learning. (P)
• Slurricane — 7/10: Targeted; better with more cut; fitness there; credible. (p)
• Puturhandstogether — 7/10: Class horse; huge weight + wants it drier; hold-up style a plus. (Proven)
• Luker’s Tipple — 6.5/10: Yard switch angle; quirky; potential pop-up. (P?)
• Autumn Twist — 6/10: First-time blinkers; needs hurdle form lift vs this field. (p)
• Kool One — 6/10: In form; big class rise; versatile ground. (p)
• Ephesus — 5/10: Talent earlier; recent regression a worry.
• Tatateo — 5/10: Honest; wants drier; form line only fair.
• Action Plan — 4/10: Below par across codes; tough ask.
• Butter Fingers — 3.5/10: 196-day layoff; 1lb wrong; more of a staying type later.
• Elusive Ogie — 3.5/10: Soundly held by Shaboozee; 1lb wrong.
• Louiescall — 3.5/10: 2lb wrong; maiden form only fair.
• Kaptain Bay — 2.5/10: 5lb wrong; recent dip.
• Yosemite Gold — 2.5/10: 5lb wrong; needs big leap.
• Bruant (res) — 2/10: 7lb wrong if getting in.

Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot. (Not especially relevant here, but the “quick returner bounce” angle still applies to sharp 2m types.)

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Each-Way Angles (19 runners)

With places on offer, value each-way profiles:

• Money Dancer (P) — Unexposed, strong pace setup, lenient opening mark feel.
• Day Trader (P) — C&D, handicap debut, could outrun odds.
• Last Kingdom (p) — Headgear/track tweaks; solid floor, fair ceiling.

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Private Tissue (my prices)

(Guide tissue; approximate overround ~116%)

• Messerschmitt 5/1 (16%)
• Shaboozee 6/1 (14%)
• Money Dancer 7/1 (12.5%)
• Last Kingdom 8/1 (11%)
• Day Trader 9/1 (10%)
• Slurricane 11/1 (8.5%)
• Puturhandstogether 12/1 (7.5%)
• Luker’s Tipple 16/1 (6%)
• Autumn Twist 20/1 (4.5%)
• Kool One 22/1 (4%)
• Ephesus 28/1 (3%)
• Tatateo 28/1 (3%)
• Action Plan 40/1 (2%)
• Butter Fingers 40/1 (2%)
• Elusive Ogie 40/1 (2%)
• Louiescall 50/1 (1.5%)
• Kaptain Bay 80/1 (1%)
• Yosemite Gold 80/1 (1%)
• Bruant (res) 100/1 (0.5%)

Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.

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Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)

Race complexion: Furious early fractions should hand the initiative to closers who can travel and punch hard late. That tilts the board towards Messerschmitt (pace-perfect, Galway upgrade), with Shaboozee still a major threat if continuing his surge despite the hike and slightly softer ground. Money Dancer is the sexy handicap debutant with the most upside; Last Kingdom and Day Trader are very live each-way/value foils. Puturhandstogether has the class but concedes lumps on ground that’s not optimal.

Smart Play generated by Chatgpt

• Top win bet: Messerschmitt — profile, pace, and recent form all aligned; strong-finisher in a strongly-run 2m looks the right combo.
• Each-way saver: Money Dancer — unexposed filly off 116 with a deep last-time visual; pace should help her settle and surge.

Contingencies: If it dries notably, Shaboozee’s chance rises; if it turns properly soft, Slurricane and Last Kingdom get small upgrades.