🔑 Betting Insights from Newcastle (Last 2 Years)
1. Favourites
Outright favourites win about 1 in 3 (35%), place nearly 2 in 3 (62%) — so they’re reliable for multiples/cover bets, but not profitable outright (−48.78).
Joint-favourites are the standout angle: smaller sample but +8.69 P/L with 25% win rate. That suggests the market may undervalue when it can’t split two horses.
👉 Takeaway: When Newcastle throws up joint-favs, there’s betting value compared to standard favs.
2. Jockeys
Paul Mulrennan = sheer volume (67 wins), though strike rate is modest (15%).
Cieren Fallon = dangerous when booked — 23% strike rate (top among regular riders).
P J McDonald = double value: strong 17% strike rate and profitable (+58.76).
Amie Waugh = lower win% (6%) but monster +149.58 P/L — a classic long-odds “one lands every so often” rider.
👉 Takeaway: Fallon and McDonald are the strike-rate/consistency plays. Waugh = occasional bomb that inflates the book.
3. Trainers
Fahey: most winners (32) but lowish win% (11%) — needs selectivity.
Andrew Balding: massive 29% strike rate with Newcastle runners (26 wins from 89).
William Haggas: almost as strong at 26%, though fewer runners.
Tracy Waggott: smaller yard, but +164.5 P/L is huge — suggests her horses often drift in market and outrun odds.
👉 Takeaway: Balding & Haggas = prime strike-rate trainers. Waggott/Tinkler = follow when they look live in the market.
4. Stallions
Dandy Man: reliable Newcastle sire, lots of volume winners.
Cracksman: elite strike rate (28%), profitable too (+28.17).
Profitable (IRE): best angle — +118.64 P/L with 19 wins, classic all-weather sire value.
👉 Takeaway: Cracksman progeny = quality at low sample. Profitable = sneaky AW value sire.
5. Jockey/Trainer Combos
McDonald / Balding: exceptional 41% strike rate — smallish sample, but that’s a nuclear number.
Hollie Doyle / Archie Watson: consistently strong combo, highest joint wins (14).
Elliott / Thompson: +46 P/L on 3 winners — very niche but rewarding when aligned.
👉 Takeaway: McDonald/Balding is the standout combination — when they team up at Newcastle, it demands respect.
🎯 Overall Betting Angles
Joint favourites are a better bet than outright favs.
P J McDonald, especially when riding for Andrew Balding, is the strongest statistical edge.
Profitable (IRE) and Cracksman progeny offer consistent sire angles.
Tracy Waggott runners at Newcastle are market-busters — back EW at double-digit odds.
Fallon bookings (limited but deadly) worth extra weight in analysis.