Executive Summary
This document provides a comprehensive synthesis of horse racing data and expert analysis for the race meetings scheduled on September 25, 2025, at Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract, Listowel, and Newcastle. The analysis integrates quantitative ratings from HorseRaceBase, detailed qualitative assessments from Spotlight race cards, and significant market movements.
The most critical takeaways from the source material include several strongly-fancied selections, or “naps,” identified by expert analysts. These are MESSERSCHMITT (3:25 Listowel), SHALLOW (3:00 Newmarket), YOU SOME GIRL (4:53 Perth), JUST TYPICAL (5:18 Newmarket), PARISH COUNCILLOR (8:00 Newcastle), and HAVANA RUM (5:38 Pontefract).
Market intelligence reveals significant confidence behind specific runners. Mukhtalif in the 5:00 at Newcastle has seen his odds shorten dramatically from 1.83 to 1.36, a 57% move indicating strong backing. Similarly, Carrigmoornaspruce in the 2:15 at Listowel has been backed from 2.38 into 1.67. Conversely, there is a notable lack of confidence in Palladium in the 4:10 at Newmarket, whose odds have drifted significantly from 2.20 to 3.75.
From a quantitative perspective, the HorseRaceBase “Total” rating system highlights several top-rated runners. The highest-rated horse across all meetings is Carrigmoornaspruce (2:15 Listowel) with a total score of 378, aligning with both market support and a strong Spotlight verdict. Other high-scorers include Distant Storm (3:35 Newmarket) with 373 and East India Dock (4:10 Newmarket) also at 373.
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Spotlight Selections and Expert Verdicts
The following section details the key selections and analysis from the Spotlight reports for each racecourse.
Listowel Selections
• 2:15 Buckley Agri New Holland Irish EBF Mares Maiden Hurdle
◦ Selection: CARRIGMOORNASPRUCE
◦ Verdict: “Some quality mares in this, none more so than the Grade 3 Punchestown bumper winner CARRIGMOORNASPRUCE and she isn’t easy to oppose despite making her hurdles debut.”
◦ Other Mentions: Aruntothequeen (Listed bumper winner), Amen Kate, Woodland Adventure.
• 2:50 Connolly’s RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle
◦ Selection: HEADS UP
◦ Verdict: “All eyes on Champion Bumper second HEADS UP who makes his debut over hurdles. He was probably flattered to some extent at Cheltenham… but his rivals here could merely dream about performing so well in a race of that stature.”
◦ Other Mentions: The Man’s Room (good each-way claims).
• 3:25 Listowel Races Supporters Club Lartigue Hurdle (Listed Handicap)
◦ Selection (Nap): MESSERSCHMITT
◦ Verdict: “Unlucky when a close third in a Galway handicap hurdle, with some of these behind, MESSERSCHMITT (nap) has since run a cracker on the Flat and can take this.”
◦ Other Mentions: Last Kingdom, Puturhandstogether, Money Dancer, Shaboozee, Kool One, Day Trader.
• 4:00 Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection: TARGA FLAVIO
◦ Verdict: “Ifitwasme won this by a big margin last year but is off a 12lb higher mark this time. A chance is taken on the runner-up then, TARGA FLAVIO, to go one better, with improvement to come from his Wexford comeback run.”
◦ Other Mentions: South Of Killerig, Paul’s Dream, Fool Me Once, Katherine, Fast Felix.
• 4:35 Behans Horseshoe Bar, Restaurant & Townhouse Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection: NOTICEBOX
◦ Verdict: “Gavin Cromwell has a useful hand… preference is for their stablemate NOTICEBOX who had been progressing well in maidens until an excusable failure when short odds. This mark could underestimate him.”
◦ Other Mentions: Jolie Jewel, Malina Girl, I Am Mimi.
• 5:10 Thorn Plant Hire Beginners Chase
◦ Selection: MOSSY FEN PARK
◦ Verdict: “MOSSY FEN PARK didn’t hang about over hurdles despite performing to a smart level and he held his own against quality opposition in last season’s two runs over fences.”
◦ Other Mentions: Oscars Brother (feared most), Sandor Clegane, Uncle Pat.
• 5:45 Kevin McManus Bookmaker Flat Race
◦ Selection: SAINT CLOVIS
◦ Verdict: “The suggestion is SAINT CLOVIS who was third in a big field at Galway and never nearer than at the finish.”
◦ Other Mentions: Mahon Falls, Grey Jude, Greenhills Of Cork.
Newmarket Selections
• 1:50 Hunters Prestige British EBF Maiden Stakes
◦ Selection: DEL MARO
◦ Verdict: “Godolphin’s DEL MARO has run well to be placed on his first two starts and could have more to offer now back on better ground.”
◦ Other Mentions: Maltese Cross, Ranga Tang (attractively bred newcomer).
• 2:25 Federation Of Bloodstock Agents Nursery Handicap
◦ Selection: MONOCEROS
◦ Verdict: “Charlie Appleby has won the last two runnings of this race and can make it three in a row with MONOCEROS, who could relish the step up to 1m.”
◦ Other Mentions: Dark Shore (second choice), Gold Dawn.
• 3:00 British Stallion Studs EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap
◦ Selection (Nap): SHALLOW
◦ Verdict: “…it could be that SHALLOW (nap) reverses the placings [with Royal Velvet]. While Richard Spencer’s filly likes to race prominently, she doesn’t have to lead and she went through that York race like a filly who would be well served by today’s return to 6f.”
◦ Other Mentions: Royal Velvet (second choice), Arabian Leopard, Lady Roxby.
• 3:35 Tattersalls Stakes (Group 3)
◦ Selection: DISTANT STORM
◦ Verdict: “The 1,900,000euros Godolphin colt DISTANT STORM did well to finish third in the Acomb at York having pulled hard and he earns the vote…”
◦ Other Mentions: Wechaad, Archer Royal, Northern Champion.
• 4:10 Jockey Club Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race)
◦ Selection: PALLADIUM
◦ Verdict: “With chief form rival Live Your Dream not seen for two years this has the look of a good opportunity for PALLADIUM to follow up his recent Salisbury conditions race win.”
◦ Other Mentions: Live Your Dream.
• 4:45 Budds Horseracing Memorabilia Handicap
◦ Selection: SECRET BEACH
◦ Verdict: “A consistent profile this year makes SECRET BEACH the solid option here but there is some untapped potential among the 3yos.”
◦ Other Mentions: Shrimp Shady (second choice), My Kinda Ghaiy, Kate O’Riley.
• 5:18 Rogues Gallery Racing Syndicate Handicap
◦ Selection (Nap): JUST TYPICAL
◦ Verdict: “Having won easily at Redcar last Tuesday, JUST TYPICAL (nap) can defy a 5lb penalty and post his sixth win of the year.”
◦ Other Mentions: Hachiman (chief threat), Repertoire, Gorgeous Mr George, Criminal Shore.
Perth Selections
• 1:58 Elston Supports UK Financial Advisers EBF Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle
◦ Selection: BIGLESISBACK
◦ Verdict: “…BIGLESISBACK is bred to be useful and she suffered interference when sent to Punchestown for her debut in a bumper.”
◦ Other Mentions: Kenisa Sport (second choice), Herja, Mountain Molly.
• 2:33 Centenary Silver Plate Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
◦ Selection: KING ROLY
◦ Verdict: “Lightkeeper got loose on the lead when repelling KING ROLY here recently but the Elliott horse might be vulnerable if pressurised this time.”
◦ Other Mentions: Inox Allen, Chief Sunday.
• 3:08 Perth Novices’ Limited Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection: TOP FLIGHT CENTURY
◦ Verdict: “TOP FLIGHT CENTURY has remained in good form since his course win in July and gets the nod in the hope he responds well to the refitted cheekpieces today.”
◦ Other Mentions: Clan Chieftain (second choice), Nathan Wells, Cosmic Soul.
• 3:43 Racing TV Profits Returned To Racing Handicap Chase
◦ Selection: SAFE DESTINATION
◦ Verdict: “A trappy race as most of these are prone to off-days. SAFE DESTINATION has been absent for a while but he has an admirable record over fences and his yard gets them fit at home.”
◦ Other Mentions: Cosmic Blizzard, Upfordebate.
• 4:18 Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection: IDEM
◦ Verdict: “Preference is for IDEM, who did well last season and could still have a bit more to offer if aided by first-time blinkers today.”
◦ Other Mentions: The Real Whacker, Imperial Data, Boston Rajj, Moonbow.
• 4:53 Paul Ferguson’s Jumpers To Follow Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection (Nap): YOU SOME GIRL
◦ Verdict: “…YOU SOME GIRL (nap) got herself back on track at Uttoxeter and she’s well in here, having escaped a penalty and with Charlie Maggs now able to claim his 5lb.”
◦ Other Mentions: The Flying Poet, Gerrys Wish.
• 5:23 Enough To Eat, Everyday PK Foodbank Handicap Hurdle
◦ Selection: LIGHTNING FLASH
◦ Verdict: “…preference is for LIGHTNING FLASH, who has a mixed record since his novice win in spring 2024 but returns from his latest break on a good mark.”
◦ Other Mentions: Kopa Kilana, Findthetime.
Pontefract Selections
• 2:08 Happy Birthday Keith Chesters Apprentice Handicap
◦ Selection: CANARIA QUEEN
◦ Verdict: “The mare CANARIA QUEEN has been in rude health of late and can go one better than when runner-up at Hamilton on Sunday.”
◦ Other Mentions: Masterclass (chief danger), Ninety Nine.
• 2:43 Sam Green 30 Years At WTJ Anniversary EBF Maiden Stakes
◦ Selection: SPANISH WALTZ
◦ Verdict: “The Ralph Beckett-trained SPANISH WALTZ is from a family of sprinters and can get off the mark now down in trip on his second start…”
◦ Other Mentions: Napolian, Mick The Vest (interesting newcomer).
• 3:18 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap
◦ Selection: LUCKY HERO
◦ Verdict: “The consistent LUCKY HERO has gone close in both nurseries and is taken to get off the mark in a first-time visor.”
◦ Other Mentions: Runamara (feared most), Demetrius.
• 3:53 Watch Racing TV Live On Channel 424 Restricted Novice Stakes
◦ Selection: GASPACHO
◦ Verdict: “…there’s a strong suspicion GASPACHO can take a good step forward from her own introduction this month.”
◦ Other Mentions: Grindleton (second choice), Forever Perfect, African Gib, Charlotte Corday.
• 4:28 Simon Scrope Dalby Screw-Driver Handicap
◦ Selection: RAULIN
◦ Verdict: “…the vote goes to RAULIN, who hasn’t been missed by the handicapper but can complete a C&D hat-trick.”
◦ Other Mentions: Calla Lagoon (second choice), Wave Rider, Mr Alan, Twirling.
• 5:05 Racing TV Handicap
◦ Selection: KITSUNE POWER
◦ Verdict: “…it’s well worth siding with 6yo KITSUNE POWER, who has dropped to a handy mark and ran creditably on his two visits here.”
◦ Other Mentions: Sonic Pioneer (second choice), Vulcan Way, Very Muddy Waters.
• 5:38 Donate To New Beginnings horses At nbhorses.org.uk Handicap
◦ Selection (Nap): HAVANA RUM
◦ Verdict: “HAVANA RUM (nap) is in the form of his life and can make amends for an unlucky second last time.”
◦ Other Mentions: City Captain (second choice), Loving Apprentice, The Good Biscuit, Cairdeas.
Newcastle Selections
• 5:00 QuinnBet Maiden Stakes
◦ Selection: MUKHTALIF
◦ Verdict: “It’s hard to see past MUKHTALIF who has the best form and a potential fitness edge over Pride Of Donegal… and Royal Army…”
• 5:30 Download The QuinnBet App Handicap
◦ Selection: RUBELLITE
◦ Verdict: “…Percy Willis (second choice) and RUBELLITE are preferred. The latter was strong at the finish when winning at Wolverhampton 23 days ago and that was just his second start for Richard Fahey.”
◦ Other Mentions: Speechman, Flying Scotsman.
• 6:00 High Gosforth Park Golf Club Handicap
◦ Selection: UNIVERSAL STORY
◦ Verdict: “A further step up in trip could well suit UNIVERSAL STORY, who caught the eye finishing strongly at Catterick on stable debut…”
◦ Other Mentions: Stand Strong, Girl Of Gold.
• 6:30 Border Minstrel EBF Restricted Novice Stakes
◦ Selection: TIGER POWER
◦ Verdict: “…the percentage call is TIGER POWER on the back of his promising winning debut at Haydock at the start of this month.”
◦ Other Mentions: Menwirr, Power For Power (respected newcomers).
• 7:00 attheraces.com/marketmovers Handicap
◦ Selection: CALL ME BETTY
◦ Verdict: “…CALL ME BETTY who has been placed on her last two starts on turf and was successful on her only previous try on AW.”
◦ Other Mentions: Miakoda (second choice), Nahash.
• 7:30 QuinnBet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap
◦ Selection: OSELTON
◦ Verdict: “Ring Of Gold (second choice) ended a lengthy losing run here last time but OSELTON won well at Southwell and he is selected to defy a 9lb rise.”
◦ Other Mentions: Coramento.
• 8:00 Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap
◦ Selection (Nap): PARISH COUNCILLOR
◦ Verdict: “Martin’s Brig (second choice) returns to AW following some good efforts on turf but PARISH COUNCILLOR (nap) is selected to follow up his Lingfield win and make it 2-2 for his stable.”
◦ Other Mentions: Coloane.
• 8:30 Arc All-Weather £1Million Bonus Returns Handicap
◦ Selection: FLETCHERS DREAM
◦ Verdict: “…FLETCHERS DREAM took a step back in the right direction here last time and is taken to gain his third C&D win.”
◦ Other Mentions: Carolus Magnus, Asadjumeirah.
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Market Intelligence Analysis
Analysis of early odds versus current odds reveals significant market sentiment for and against certain runners.
Significant Market Movers (Backed)
The following horses have seen their odds shorten considerably, indicating strong market support.
| Race | Horse | Early Odds | Current Odds | Point Move |
| 5:00 Newcastle | Mukhtalif (IRE) | 1.83 | 1.36 | 11 |
| 2:15 Listowel | Carrigmoornaspruce (IRE) | 2.38 | 1.67 | 10 |
| 8:00 Newcastle | Electric Avenue | 8.00 | 4.00 | 9 |
| 5:23 Perth | Lightning Flash (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.50 | 8 |
| 3:18 Pontefract | Tricky Tel | 7.50 | 4.00 | 8 |
| 4:10 Newmarket | Live Your Dream (IRE) | 3.25 | 2.25 | 8 |
| 3:25 Listowel | Messerschmitt (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.50 | 7 |
| 4:28 Pontefract | Wave Rider | 3.25 | 2.38 | 7 |
| 4:35 Listowel | Club Manager | 8.50 | 5.00 | 7 |
| 4:18 Perth | Chasing Fire | 5.50 | 3.50 | 7 |
Notable Market Drifters
The following horses have seen their odds lengthen significantly, suggesting a lack of market confidence.
| Race | Horse | Early Odds | Current Odds | Point Move |
| 4:10 Newmarket | Palladium (GER) | 2.20 | 3.75 | -12 |
| 5:23 Perth | Maillot Blanc | 6.00 | 13.00 | -11 |
| 2:15 Listowel | Run For Mahler (IRE) | 3.50 | 7.50 | -11 |
| 5:45 Listowel | Lord Of The Locke (IRE) | 6.00 | 13.00 | -11 |
| 4:45 Newmarket | Son Of Man (IRE) | 5.50 | 11.00 | -10 |
| 1:50 Newmarket | Moment Of Light | 15.00 | 41.00 | -9 |
| 5:23 Perth | Ovidstown Hill | 17.00 | 67.00 | -9 |
| 1:58 Perth | Kottayam (FR) | 11.00 | 26.00 | -9 |
| 3:18 Pontefract | Alaskan Light (IRE) | 5.00 | 9.50 | -9 |
| 5:00 Newcastle | Royal Army | 2.88 | 4.50 | -9 |
| 5:05 Pontefract | Very Muddy Waters | 6.00 | 11.00 | -9 |
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HorseRaceBase Quantitative Ratings Overview
The “Total” score from HorseRaceBase provides a quantitative measure aggregating various performance factors. The table below lists the top-rated horse for each race based on this metric.
| Race Time | Location | Top-Rated Horse | Total Score |
| 1:50 | Newmarket | Del Maro (GER) | 313 |
| 1:58 | Perth | Herja (IRE) | 310 |
| 2:08 | Pontefract | Canaria Queen | 240 |
| 2:15 | Listowel | Carrigmoornaspruce (IRE) | 378 |
| 2:25 | Newmarket | Monoceros | 331 |
| 2:33 | Perth | Lightkeeper (IRE) / King Roly | 328 |
| 2:43 | Pontefract | Napolian (IRE) | 251 |
| 2:50 | Listowel | Heads Up | 340 |
| 3:00 | Newmarket | Royal Velvet | 357 |
| 3:08 | Perth | Top Flight Century (FR) | 236 |
| 3:18 | Pontefract | Alaskan Light (IRE) | 318 |
| 3:25 | Listowel | Last Kingdom (FR) | 349 |
| 3:35 | Newmarket | Distant Storm | 373 |
| 3:43 | Perth | Sean Og (IRE) | 273 |
| 3:53 | Pontefract | Grindleton | 245 |
| 4:00 | Listowel | Pauls Dream (IRE) | 267 |
| 4:10 | Newmarket | East India Dock | 373 |
| 4:18 | Perth | The Real Whacker (IRE) | 350 |
| 4:28 | Pontefract | Calla Lagoon | 324 |
| 4:35 | Listowel | Duty Bound | 288 |
| 4:45 | Newmarket | Shrimp Shady | 288 |
| 4:53 | Perth | You Some Girl (IRE) | 290 |
| 5:00 | Newcastle | Mukhtalif (IRE) | 304 |
| 5:05 | Pontefract | Sonic Pioneer | 275 |
| 5:10 | Listowel | Uncle Pat (IRE) | 300 |
| 5:18 | Newmarket | Criminal Shore (IRE) / Just Typical | 269 |
| 5:23 | Perth | Kopa Kilana (IRE) | 271 |
| 5:30 | Newcastle | Rubellite (IRE) | 264 |
| 5:38 | Pontefract | City Captain | 288 |
| 5:45 | Listowel | Mahon Falls (IRE) | 278 |
| 6:00 | Newcastle | Stand Strong | 242 |
| 6:30 | Newcastle | Tiger Power (IRE) | 285 |
| 7:00 | Newcastle | Miakoda (IRE) | 265 |
| 7:30 | Newcastle | Ring Of Gold | 230 |
| 8:00 | Newcastle | Parish Councillor (IRE) | 259 |
| 8:30 | Newcastle | Northern Attitude (IRE) | 228 |
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