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Dundalk Race Analysis (26th September 2025)
4.40 Friday Night Lights At Dundalk Claiming Maiden
(Class 3, 6f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Cali Case (3yo): 229
- Starspangled Dream (IRE) (3yo): 229
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Cali Case | 44, 38, 13, 7, 0 | Closed up in a 6f maiden at the Curragh but looked green and weakened over 7f here last week. He is back to 6f, and given the promise of his penultimate run, he is not dismissed. |
| Starspangled Dream (IRE) | 59, 0, 0, 0, 0 | Was not disgraced when tenth of 16 in a 7f maiden at Gowran, and this race should be easier, although his draw hasn’t helped. He is part of the Ger Lyons pair whose performance should be checked in the betting, as he didn’t run too badly first time out in a maiden. |
Spotlight Verdict:
The Ger Lyons pair need checking in the betting as Hallelujah Rose has a striking pedigree for this level and Starspangled Dream didn’t run too badly in a maiden first time out. On form there should be big runs in Heaven’s Wish, Best Suggestion and CALI CASE, with the latter edging preference on this return to 6f.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 2-6-24, 4yo+ 2-2-14.
- Fate of Favourites: 1122.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): Denis Gerard Hogan 1-0-1, G M Lyons 1-0-1, Noel Meade 1-1-2, David Marnane 0-1-1.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Cali Case (TimeWise Total: 229):
- Strengths: Shares the highest rating. The return to 6f (from 7f) is expected to suit, based on his strong run two starts ago. He is marginally preferred by the Spotlight verdict.
- Weaknesses: Exhibited greenness and was a weakener over 7f last week.
- Suitability: Highly suitable if he recaptures his form shown at 6f.
- Starspangled Dream (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 229):
- Strengths: Shares the highest rating. Expected to find this claiming maiden easier than previous maiden starts.
- Weaknesses: The draw is noted as a potential disadvantage.
- Suitability: Suitable for this class drop, but performance relies heavily on handling the conditions and draw.
5.15 View Restaurant At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap
(Class 3, 6f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Carrigans Grove (IRE) (4yo): 301
- Lismacbryan Hill (IRE) (4yo): 255
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Carrigans Grove (IRE) | 99, 38, 19, 11, 8 | Is having a great year and continued her good form in first-time cheekpieces at the Curragh (6f), racing prominently. She continues to surprise despite being up another 5lb. She has previous wins here and benefits from a kind draw. |
| Lismacbryan Hill (IRE) | 86, 30, 14, 10, 6 | Has shown respectable form in big-field handicap sprints. Got off the mark by 5l in a claimer at Laytown. Despite being bumped up in weights, the 7lb claim in this Apprentice Handicap offers compensation. |
Spotlight Verdict:
This year could barely have gone any better for CARRIGANS GROVE and she might not be done yet. The recent Curragh winner has form here and the draw has been kind. Smoke Them Out is dangerously handicapped and it was an encouraging first run here last week over a trip that stretched him. Undefeatable and Tomarlo also have chances.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-3-28, 4yo+ 5-9-54.
- Fate of Favourites: 114201.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): Denis Gerard Hogan 2-1-5, Adrian McGuinness 1-1-5, David Marnane 0-1-2, Seamus G O’Donnell 0-1-1.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Carrigans Grove (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 301):
- Strengths: The highest rated horse by a significant margin. She is in excellent form, having continued to progress recently, including a prominent run to win at the Curragh. She has winning form at Dundalk and a favourable draw. She is the Spotlight selection.
- Weaknesses: Has incurred a 5lb penalty for her recent success.
- Suitability: Highly suitable, showing robust form and consistency at this level.
- Lismacbryan Hill (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 255):
- Strengths: Recently scored a 5l win in a claimer. The 7lb weight claim from the apprentice jockey helps offset the weight increase.
- Weaknesses: Has been raised in the weights following her last victory.
- Suitability: Suitable for handicap sprints, benefiting from the apprentice allowance.
5.45 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden
(Class 5, 7f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Yellowstone Lake (FR) (2yo): 324
- Goomah (IRE) (2yo): 265
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Yellowstone Lake (FR) | 87, 43, 0, 0, 0 | A 185,000euros breeze-up purchase. Went close on her Leopardstown debut (6.5f) and was fourth subsequently at the Curragh behind a newcomer who has since impressed in a Listed race. Expected to have every chance from a good draw. |
| Goomah (IRE) | 79, 0, 0, 0, 0 | A 65,000euros yearling. She raced keenly but finished seventh of 15 in a 7f maiden at Naas. Capable of better, but she is disadvantaged by being drawn in stall 15. |
Spotlight Verdict:
An intriguing maiden that features the debuts of two impeccably bred Ballydoyle fillies… preference is for YELLOWSTONE LAKE who has shaped with considerable promise in both her races, latterly behind Diamond Necklace who then impressed in a Listed race on Irish Champions Weekend. Real Encounter wasn’t far behind the selection on her debut so also commands respect. Emmeleia won her barrier trial.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: Race limited to 2yo fillies.
- Fate of Favourites: 1413333223.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): G M Lyons 2-1-7, A P O’Brien 1-4-14, Donnacha Aidan O’Brien 1-2-4, Henry De Bromhead 1-0-5, M D O’Callaghan 0-1-1, Mrs John Harrington 0-3-12, P Twomey 0-1-1.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Yellowstone Lake (FR) (TimeWise Total: 324):
- Strengths: Highest rated and Spotlight selection. Has shown highly promising form in previous runs, supported by subsequent franking of the form. Benefits from a good draw.
- Weaknesses: Still seeking a maiden win.
- Suitability: Highly suitable, expected to be the class horse of the race based on pedigree and prior performances.
- Goomah (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 265):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Believed to be capable of improving upon her debut run.
- Weaknesses: Raced keenly on debut. Suffers from a difficult draw (stall 15).
- Suitability: Potential remains, but must overcome behavioural issues and the wide draw.
6.15 irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div 1)
(Class 5, 1m, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- The Bog Bank (IRE) (8yo): 271
- Pinball Wizard (IRE) (7yo): 225
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| The Bog Bank (IRE) | 86, 32, 15, 8, 5 | Dual C&D winner who recently got back to form over this trip at Gowran. Runs off a 5lb lower AW mark. She should be involved again, although she has a tough draw. |
| Pinball Wizard (IRE) | 74, 21, 12, 9, 7 | Has six career wins, including four on AW in the UK. The return to AW is helpful after running close on turf recently, but he also has a tough draw. |
Spotlight Verdict:
This is tricky but VENETIAN might be the solution. He didn’t last home over the extended 1m2f here last time but back to this trip will suit and he has a good draw. Famous Enough was also found out over further here last time but can go better back to a mile. The Bog Bank is closely matched with the latter.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-3-14, 4yo+ 2-3-27.
- Fate of Favourites: 512.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): T G McCourt 1-0-1, Andrew Slattery 0-1-2, John C McConnell 0-1-5.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- The Bog Bank (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 271):
- Strengths: The highest rated horse. Proven C&D winner recently returned to form. Benefits from a favourable 5lb lower AW mark.
- Weaknesses: Suffers from a tough draw. The Spotlight suggests other contenders are closely matched.
- Suitability: Highly suitable given course experience and form, provided she overcomes the draw.
- Pinball Wizard (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 225):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Experienced and successful on AW surfaces in the UK.
- Weaknesses: Contending with a tough draw.
- Suitability: Generally suitable for the AW surface, but needs luck with the draw.
- Note: The Spotlight pick, Venetian (Total 206), is ranked third by TimeWise, suggesting an alternative viewpoint on value/suitability.
6.45 irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div 2)
(Class 6, 1m, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Sierra De Gredos (4yo): 258
- Amanirenas (IRE) (6yo): 247
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Sierra De Gredos | 86, 20, 21, 11, 6 | Has three wins this year, including a C&D victory last week where she finished ahead of Punk Poet. Carries a 6lb rise but benefits from a 7lb claimer and a good draw (Stall 4). Looks the one to beat if she recovers quickly. |
| Amanirenas (IRE) | 82, 22, 13, 9, 6 | Had been regressive until winning recently over 6f at Laytown. She stays this trip (1m) and could be a player if backing up that revival. She has a wide draw. |
Spotlight Verdict:
There isn’t much between SIERRA DE GREDOS and Punk Poet on their meeting over C&D last week but slight preference is for the younger horse despite a 5lb turnaround in the weights. Amanirenas is a player if backing up her Laytown win.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 1-3-14, 4yo+ 2-3-27.
- Fate of Favourites: 512.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): T G McCourt 1-0-1, Andrew Slattery 0-1-2, John C McConnell 0-1-5.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Sierra De Gredos (TimeWise Total: 258):
- Strengths: Highest rated. Proven C&D winner recently. Strong jockey booking with a 7lb claim and a favourable draw. Spotlight selection.
- Weaknesses: Must overcome a 6lb penalty and the short turnaround (7 days).
- Suitability: Highly suitable, strong contender if fitness holds.
- Amanirenas (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 247):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Recent win suggests a return to form. Capable of handling the 1m trip.
- Weaknesses: Wide draw and had been regressive before her last outing.
- Suitability: Contender if she can sustain her recent revival and navigate the wide starting position.
7.15 Bar One Racing Best Odds Guaranteed Diamond Stakes (Listed)
(Listed Race, 1m2½f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Madam Celeste (IRE) (4yo): 363
- Omni Man (IRE) (3yo): 352
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Madam Celeste (IRE) | 109, 56, 23, 8, 10 | Course winner at two. Has improved significantly this season with a win and a second place in two Listed races over extended 1m1f distances. Respected as an improving filly with no wellbeing concerns. |
| Omni Man (IRE) | 120, 45, 20, 10, 7 | Unexposed with only seven runs. Won a valuable Goodwood handicap over 1m4f in July. Suffered from a wide draw in a sales race previously and faces another high stall here. The 1m2½f trip might see others possessing more gears. |
Spotlight Verdict:
You Got To Me is a Group 1 filly running in a Listed race but she’s on a recovery mission and this trip will be on the sharp side around here. PHANTOM FLIGHT (nap), on the other hand, is a proven quality performer at 1m2f and an absence since Royal Ascot is of no concern given his excellent record when fresh. Alice Monet and Madam Celeste are improving fillies with no wellbeing issues and both should run well.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 6-8-46, 4yo+ 4-9-46.
- Fate of Favourites: 1135001413.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 3-4-13, A Oliver 1-0-3, Donnacha Aidan O’Brien 1-0-1, G M Lyons 1-1-8, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-2-13.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Madam Celeste (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 363):
- Strengths: Highest TimeWise rated runner. Proven history at Dundalk and excellent recent performances in Listed company. Identified as an improving filly likely to run well by the Spotlight.
- Weaknesses: None apparent, aside from facing tough competition.
- Suitability: Highly suitable, expected to contend strongly at this level.
- Omni Man (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 352):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Recent winner of a valuable handicap over 1m4f. Unexposed with potential.
- Weaknesses: Has drawn a high stall which has hindered him previously. The distance (1m2½f) may be too short for him.
- Suitability: Suitable for the class, but trip and draw present definite concerns.
- Note: The Spotlight selection is Phantom Flight (Total 321), suggesting that recent Group performance and suitability for the trip/surface outweigh the strict TimeWise rating.
7.45 Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap
(Class 6, 1m2½f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Nocturnal (IRE) (4yo): 265
- Harry The Rogue (IRE) (4yo): 257
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Nocturnal (IRE) | 67, 35, 15, 8, 5 | Dual winner, including on AW in the UK. Ran below form over C&D last time in a Premier handicap, meaning he should perform better now dropping in grade. |
| Harry The Rogue (IRE) | 75, 33, 20, 12, 8 | Won twice over 1m on turf this season and ran fine third over 7f at Laytown most recently. This 1m2½f trip is a question mark. |
Spotlight Verdict:
Back to form when winning over 1m4f here a week ago, BENAVENTE has won over shorter and can follow up over this trip up 6lb. Other course winners Sacred Oath and Quickshot are coming off lay-offs but have won when fresh so are respected. The reliable Expound should run well.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 5-4-32, 4yo+ 0-6-32.
- Fate of Favourites: 30331.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): A Oliver 1-3-8, Adrian McGuinness 0-1-3, D K Weld 0-1-1, Richard John O’Brien 0-1-2.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Nocturnal (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 265):
- Strengths: Highest rated. Proven AW winner. Should find the class drop favourable after struggling in a Premier handicap last time.
- Weaknesses: Recent form over C&D was poor (though excused due to grade).
- Suitability: Suitable for the surface and expected to bounce back in this lower grade.
- Harry The Rogue (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 257):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Consistent performer this season over shorter distances.
- Weaknesses: Stamina is uncertain for this 1m2½f trip.
- Suitability: Stamina is a significant question mark over this distance, despite good recent form at 1m and 7f.
- Note: The Spotlight selected Benavente (Total 250), who is currently highly in form, having won over 1m4f here a week ago.
8.15 Celebrate Your Special Occasion At Dundalk Stadium Handicap (0-60)
(Class 6, 1m4f, Standard, 14 runners)
Master Top Two Rated Horses (TimeWise Total):
- Chopsticks (IRE) (5yo): 253
- Captain Hanley (IRE) (5yo): 240
| Horse | Recent Form (LR-5LR) | Supplied Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Chopsticks (IRE) | 83, 27, 17, 11, 7 | Broke his maiden on his 20th start with a 5l win at Sligo; the runner-up’s subsequent form confirms the strength of that win. Has many placed AW runs. Despite a 9lb penalty and a wide draw, he should run well. |
| Captain Hanley (IRE) | 64, 28, 17, 8, 5 | Maiden who came close (third) in a handicap over this trip at Tramore. His only previous start here was respectable. Found 7f too short at Laytown most recently. Possibilities here. |
Spotlight Verdict:
Many of the main protagonists have wide draws, like Miss Messi, Captain Hanley, Waystar and CHOPSTICKS but the last-named is still selected as the form of his Sligo win was franked since and he can defy a 9lb hike. Felicity Smoak and Tomahawk King can run well.
Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo 0-3-34, 4yo+ 10-17-106.
- Fate of Favourites: 5012140641.
- Trainers in this Race (w-pl-r): John C McConnell 1-1-6, T G McCourt 1-1-2, Denis Gerard Hogan 0-1-2, Paul W Flynn 0-1-1.
Assessment of Master Top Two:
- Chopsticks (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 253):
- Strengths: Highest rated and the Spotlight selection. Recent victory form was excellent and has been franked. Strong record of placed efforts on AW.
- Weaknesses: Must carry a substantial 9lb penalty. Has a very wide draw (Stall 14).
- Suitability: Highly suitable based on form and AW record, expected to overcome the disadvantages.
- Captain Hanley (IRE) (TimeWise Total: 240):
- Strengths: Second highest rated. Proven suitability for the trip (1m4f) based on a close third at Tramore.
- Weaknesses: Maiden status. Also faces a wide draw (Stall 12).
- Suitability: Suitable distance, holds place claims if performing up to his respectable course debut form.
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