4.19 Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 Nursery
- Distance/Going: 5f (4f 214y), Standard (AW).
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Havin A Flyer (Total: 230)
- Call Me By My Name (Total: 220)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Havin A Flyer | Has produced her best efforts over 5f at Musselburgh, including second-place finishes in two nursery attempts. Her competitiveness depends on whether she can transfer this turf form onto the AW surface. |
| Call Me By My Name | No detailed recent form summary is provided in the sources. |
- Spotlight Verdict: The withdrawal of Double Naughty, who was the original selection, promotes a similar type, DRAGON SPIN, to first choice. Showcasis Oasis, who may improve now handicapping, is the next on the shortlist ahead of Rajak who warrants respect back in this grade.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: All runners are 2yo.
- Fate of Favourites: 20.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Rebecca Menzies 0-1-1.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Havin A Flyer:
- Strengths: Highest rated (230). Consistent performance level over 5f on turf.
- Weaknesses: Untested/unproven on the Standard AW surface.
- Suitability: Proven over 5f.
- Call Me By My Name:
- Strengths: Second highest rated (220).
- Weaknesses: Lack of explicit form data makes assessment difficult.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 5f.
- Havin A Flyer:
4.50 Join Southwell Golf Club Restricted Maiden Fillies’ Stakes
- Distance/Going: 5f (4f 214y), Standard (AW), Class 5.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Siouxpersonic (IRE) (Total: 272)
- Naanas Shadow (IRE) (Total: 232)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Siouxpersonic (IRE) | Improved to finish second at Thirsk (5f) and struggled in a Class 2 nursery at the St Leger meeting. She is expected to be competitive at this level. |
| Naanas Shadow (IRE) | Has not been seen since April. |
- Spotlight Verdict: The suggestion is SIOUXPERSONIC (nap) who hinted at better things to come when second at Thirsk and was not totally disgraced in a Class 2 nursery at the St Leger meeting. Sinj has had a few chances and Naana’s Shadow hasn’t been seen since April, so Lelosaja is recommended as second choice.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: All runners are 2yo fillies.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Not explicitly listed.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Siouxpersonic (IRE):
- Strengths: Highest rated (272). Showed genuine ability in placing second at Thirsk and has valuable experience from running in a Class 2 event. Expected to be competitive dropping into this level.
- Weaknesses: Struggled last time in higher company. Needs to confirm turf form on AW.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 5f.
- Naanas Shadow (IRE):
- Strengths: Second highest rated (232).
- Weaknesses: Long absence (since April) raises questions about current fitness and form.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 5f.
- Siouxpersonic (IRE):
5.25 Free Bets On attheraces.com Maiden Stakes
- Distance/Going: 1m 4f 14y, Standard (AW), Class 5.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Aajej (Total: 268)
- Abando (Total: N/A – Highest RPR 104)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Aajej | Found improvement with a promising third here over 1m3f three weeks ago. This form was boosted when the second place horse won its next start. |
| Abando | A five-race maiden who was beaten far in a Listed race in France when last seen in July. Before that, he ran well in Group 3 (1m2f) and Group 2 (1m3f) events in Germany in May/June, setting a clear standard on that form. Needs a close look on his British/stable debut. |
- Spotlight Verdict: Abando sets a clear standard based on previous German Group form and needs a close look on his British/stable debut. Shumus looks interesting on the step up in trip, but the vote goes to the Crisfords’ AAJEJ (nap). This twice-raced colt took a major step forward with his third here three weeks ago and that form has been boosted by the runner-up since.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Not explicitly listed.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Aajej:
- Strengths: Highest explicit TWM rating (268). Demonstrated significant improvement at this track last time, with the form validated subsequently.
- Weaknesses: Did not meet market expectations on debut.
- Suitability: Expected to handle the 1m4f trip after showing promise over 1m3f.
- Abando:
- Strengths: Possesses the best historic form (Group 2/3 level in Germany). Sets a clear standard on RPR figures (104).
- Weaknesses: Tailed off in his latest start. Absent since July and making a stable/British debut, making his current effectiveness unknown.
- Suitability: Proven at 1m2f/1m3f.
- Aajej:
6.00 Golf And Gallop Handicap
- Distance/Going: 1m 13y, Standard (AW), Class 6.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Super Hit (FR) (Total: 225)
- Spirit Lead Me (IRE) (Total: 222)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Super Hit (FR) | Dual Chelmsford winner and placed here. However, he has lost his way since winning on turf in April. |
| Spirit Lead Me (IRE) | Won comfortably in first-time cheekpieces at Kempton (7f) on Wednesday. He is fine at 1m and the 7lb claim of the jockey negates the 6lb penalty he incurs for his recent win. |
- Spotlight Verdict: The market suggested that SPIRIT LEAD ME (nap) would take some beating in the new cheekpieces at Kempton on Wednesday and he duly won easily. He will be tough to beat if clicking with his new partner. Havana Touch goes well fresh and he could be the main danger.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: 231410.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Scott Dixon 1-1-8.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Super Hit (FR):
- Strengths: Highest rated (225). Proven on AW and placed at Southwell. Favourable mark (implied by previous form).
- Weaknesses: Has been out of form since April.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 1m.
- Spirit Lead Me (IRE):
- Strengths: Second highest rated (222). Showed strong form immediately after application of cheekpieces and has a significant weight advantage due to the apprentice claim.
- Weaknesses: Unraced at Southwell.
- Suitability: Proven at 7f and capable at 1m.
- Super Hit (FR):
6.30 Andrew And Anthony Roy Memorial Race Handicap (Div 1)
- Distance/Going: 6f 16y, Standard (AW), Class 5.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Zabeel Road (IRE) (Total: 224)
- Baba Reza (Total: 223)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Zabeel Road (IRE) | Won at Lingfield in August and has run creditably since. He is only 1lb higher than when running well at Haydock and has previously gone well fresh. |
| Baba Reza | No detailed recent form summary is provided in the sources. |
- Spotlight Verdict: Solid claims are held by last week’s Wolverhampton winner One More Dream, but at likely longer odds a chance is taken on ZIGGY’S CONDOR who has fallen in the weights and also has a C&D success to his name. Travel Agent may still be unexposed and is also considered.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): 3yo 0-0-3, 4yo+ 1-2-7.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Zabeel Road (IRE):
- Strengths: Highest rated (224). Recent winning form and remains competitively handicapped.
- Weaknesses: Experienced issues in recent runs (e.g., late blindfold removal).
- Suitability: Suitable distance 6f.
- Baba Reza:
- Strengths: Second highest rated (223).
- Weaknesses: Lack of explicit form data makes assessment difficult.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 6f.
- Zabeel Road (IRE):
7.00 Andrew And Anthony Roy Memorial Race Handicap (Div 2)
- Distance/Going: 6f 16y, Standard (AW), Class 5.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Rebel Empire (FR) (Total: 216)
- Brunel Charm (Total: 213)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Rebel Empire (FR) | All three wins have been on AW, the latest in January at Chelmsford. He is now 4lb lower than that success but has been tailed off in his last two runs (turf/Tapeta) and requires a major revival. |
| Brunel Charm | No detailed recent form summary is provided in the sources. |
- Spotlight Verdict: Jesse Luc (nap) ran an eyecatching third back on turf last time, and still looks on a workable mark, making him a big player in his bid for a fourth C&D win. Last month’s Kempton third Kiniro still has potential as a handicapper and is feared most, ahead of Hierarchy and Smooth Silesie.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): 3yo 0-0-3, 4yo+ 1-2-7.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Rebel Empire (FR):
- Strengths: Highest rated (216). Proven on AW, now carrying a lower mark than for his last win.
- Weaknesses: Recent form is very poor (tailed off on last two starts). Needs a significant turnaround.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 6f.
- Brunel Charm:
- Strengths: Second highest rated (213).
- Weaknesses: Lack of explicit form data makes assessment difficult.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 6f.
- Rebel Empire (FR):
7.30 Free Race Replays On attheraces.com Handicap
- Distance/Going: 5f (4f 214y), Standard (AW), Class 6.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Birkenhead (Total: 244)
- Zuffolo (IRE) (Total: 230)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Birkenhead | A tough campaigner with 11 career wins, two of which were at Southwell. He arrives in form after a fourth-place finish at Catterick earlier this month and should put up another bold show. |
| Zuffolo (IRE) | A 5f specialist who won at Newcastle three weeks ago. He was not disgraced when finishing fifth at Redcar next time. This is his Southwell debut. |
- Spotlight Verdict: Topweight Birkenhead likes it here and should go well, while Nelson Gay (second choice) and Irish Dancer are other C&D winners with solid claims. HAVECHATMA requires a revival but she showed up well over 6f at Lingfield three weeks ago and now returns to the scene of four of her five wins.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): 3yo 0-1-2, 4yo+ 1-1-11.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Birkenhead:
- Strengths: Highest rated (244). C&D winner with proven hardiness and consistency.
- Weaknesses: None noted regarding conditions/track.
- Suitability: Highly suitable C&D conditions.
- Zuffolo (IRE):
- Strengths: Second highest rated (230). In good recent form and specializing at 5f.
- Weaknesses: Making his Southwell debut.
- Suitability: Suitable distance 5f.
- Birkenhead:
8.00 At The Races App Expert Tips Handicap
- Distance/Going: 1m 6f 21y, Standard (AW), Class 6.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Tazaman (Total: 238)
- Appleblossomwhite (IRE) (Total: 236)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Tazaman | A rejuvenated 8yo who won at Leicester and Bath in May/July, and was second at Newbury (1m5f) in July when last seen. He is effective over C&D and is a player. |
| Appleblossomwhite (IRE) | Ran poorly at Bath recently but won at Redcar over 1m6f, appreciating the step up in trip. She attracted market support that day and could have more to offer at this trip. |
- Spotlight Verdict: The lightly raced DIVISION DAY (nap) relished the step up to 1m6f at Redcar recently and can follow up. Fellow 3yo Appleblossomwhite also scored on her latest start and is feared most. Tazaman was in top form when last seen.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: 122.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Kevin Frost 0-2-2.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Tazaman:
- Strengths: Highest rated (238). Proven form over long distances and C&D.
- Weaknesses: Returning from a substantial break (since July).
- Suitability: C&D specialist.
- Appleblossomwhite (IRE):
- Strengths: Second highest rated (236). Recent winner over 1m6f, suggesting the distance suits her perfectly.
- Weaknesses: Inconsistent form prior to her latest win.
- Suitability: Proven winner at 1m6f.
- Tazaman:
8.30 Free Tips Daily On attheraces.com Handicap
- Distance/Going: 1m 4f 14y, Standard (AW), Class 5.
- TimeWise Master Top Two Rated:
- Always A Star (Total: 293)
- Everyoneknowsadave (IRE) (Total: 253)
| Horse | Recent Form Summary & Comments |
|---|---|
| Always A Star | An eight-race maiden who showed improvement when a close third over C&D last month in a Racing League event, finishing 4l clear of the fourth place runner. Considered a key player despite the 3lb rise. |
| Everyoneknowsadave (IRE) | Has won 3 of 6 starts on AW, including over 1m3f here in July. He found further progress with a clear third behind a major improver at Haydock last time, despite previous traffic issues. Still has scope for further progress. |
- Spotlight Verdict: A competitive race in which the vote goes to EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE (nap), who has a record of 2-4 at Southwell and found more progress with his clear third behind a major improver at Haydock last time. Always A Star, who was a close third in a Racing League event over C&D last month, is feared most ahead of Ralph Beckett’s interesting contender Helmsley.
- Race Statistics:
- Age Groups: 3yo+.
- Fate of Favourites: Not explicitly listed.
- Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Not explicitly listed.
- Assessment of Top Two:
- Always A Star:
- Strengths: Highest rated (293). Demonstrated C&D form against strong competition recently, suggesting he is better than his maiden status suggests.
- Weaknesses: Has consistently failed to win (eight-race maiden).
- Suitability: C&D form is solid.
- Everyoneknowsadave (IRE):
- Strengths: Second highest rated (253). Excellent AW record (3-6 wins) and shows scope for further improvement. Recent form suggests he is capable in this class.
- Weaknesses: Has experienced traffic trouble in previous runs.
- Suitability: Proven winner over similar trips at Southwell.
- Always A Star:
Leave a comment