Curragh; This analysis focuses exclusively on the Curragh races provided in the source material, presented in chronological order, using TimeWise Master (TWM) ratings for the Top Two

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1.30 Tote 20K Euros Guaranteed Placepot Today Irish EBF Maiden (€20,000)

1m 1f, 2yo, YLD-SFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Cape Cod (IRE)265
2Kalir (IRE)265

Recent Form & Comments

  • Cape Cod (IRE): Showed mild promise over 6f on debut at the Curragh but performed much better at Punchestown (8f) last time after a break, finishing only .75l behind stablemate Port Of Spain. That stablemate was due to run in the Beresford Stakes. Cape Cod’s TimeWise Master Last Run (LR) rating is 70.
  • Kalir (IRE): Has a nice pedigree. Finished third on debut at Leopardstown over 1m, beaten 8l, though the winner appears to be a smart type. This colt should have improved since that run and can be more involved today. Kalir’s TimeWise Master LR rating is 75.

Spotlight Verdict

Having produced a much-improved effort when a close third over 1m at Punchestown last time, CAPE COD (nap) can get off the mark over this longer trip. The other rivals with form have a bit to find, with South Island looking the best even though he was disappointing last time. A 140,000euros yearling, Sharkeyboy is the most interesting of the debutants.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: For 2yo.
  • Fate of Favourites: 2141.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 3-1-9, Donnacha Aidan O’Brien 1-0-2, D K Weld 0-1-2, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-4-12.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Cape Cod (IRE):
    • Strengths: Showed significant improvement last time out; considered a “big player”.
    • Weaknesses: Only displayed “mild promise” on debut.
    • Suitability: Expected to handle the longer trip of 1m 1f.
  • Kalir (IRE):
    • Strengths: Possesses a nice pedigree; capable of improvement after debut, which was behind a smart winner.
    • Weaknesses: Beaten 8l in his debut run.
    • Suitability: Can be more involved today.

2.05 Fitzpatricks Mercedes-Benz Irish EBF Maiden (€20,000)

7f, 2yo, SOFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1White Sand Beach (USA)310
2Spangled Sands (IRE)307

Recent Form & Comments

  • White Sand Beach (USA): A beautifully-bred filly who ran a fine race to be a close runner-up on her debut over 1m at Punchestown, despite not being strong in the market. She is expected to have improved from that run and looks to be the one to beat. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 83.
  • Spangled Sands (IRE): Encountered subsequent Futurity Stakes winner Constitution River on debut at Galway, and may have met another decent sort subsequently at Gowran. He needs to step forward to win but should be involved again. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 89.

Spotlight Verdict

With improvement likely from her fine Punchestown second on debut, WHITE SAND BEACH should be difficult to beat today. Spangled Sands ran into a smart Ballydoyle sort on debut but, though he didn’t really improve next time, is still a danger. Suspicious Mindz has a chance if back to the form of his Tipperary Listed third. Zia Zabel is most interesting of the newcomers.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: For 2yo.
  • Fate of Favourites: 210111.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 4-2-13, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-3-7, M D O’Callaghan 0-1-3, Mrs John Harrington 0-1-6.

Assessment of Top Two

  • White Sand Beach (USA):
    • Strengths: Beautifully-bred; ran excellently on debut; expected improvement makes her the one to beat.
    • Weaknesses: None stated, though she drops from 1m to 7f.
    • Suitability: Highly suited and favored to win.
  • Spangled Sands (IRE):
    • Strengths: Debut form boosted by subsequent Group 1 winner; expected to be involved.
    • Weaknesses: Needs to take a step forward to win; did not really improve in his subsequent run.
    • Suitability: Listed as a danger.

2.37 Weld Park Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (€60,000)

7f, 2yo fillies, SOFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Alibah (IRE)364
2Zous And Me (IRE)341

Recent Form & Comments

  • Alibah (IRE): Won a Gowran maiden on debut (7f, good). She coped well with the step up in grade when a close third in a 6f listed race at Fairyhouse (yielding) six days ago, finishing strongly after encountering traffic. The return to 7f is considered a plus. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 110.
  • Zous And Me (IRE): Won her debut by 0.5l at Galway (7f, soft). She is well bred and totally unexposed. Any rain would be beneficial to her chances. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 101.

Spotlight Verdict

A case can be made for a few of these fillies. Kensington Lane was impressive at Gowran but if the forecast rain arrives she is unproven on soft. Black Caviar Gold and Alibah have form on easy ground and are considered, but so does PIVOTAL ATTACK. She put a couple of these rivals to the sword at Galway and if she settles better than she did in the Moyglare, she can take this.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: For 2yo fillies only.
  • Fate of Favourites: 6141046621.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 4-2-19, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 2-3-12, G M Lyons 0-1-3, P Twomey 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Alibah (IRE):
    • Strengths: Has confirmed ability at Listed level on easy ground; finishing strong in recent race suggests she appreciates 7f; holds a “big chance”.
    • Weaknesses: None stated in terms of suitability.
    • Suitability: Highly suited to the conditions and grade; return to 7f is a plus.
  • Zous And Me (IRE):
    • Strengths: Well bred and unexposed; won convincingly on soft ground on debut.
    • Weaknesses: Facing a “big step up in class”; the stable jockey (Dylan Browne McMonagle) prefers Alibah.
    • Suitability: Any rain improves her chance.

3.12 Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Renaissance Stakes (Group 3) (€60,000)

6f, 3yo+, SOFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Vespertilio (FR)381
2My Mate Alfie (IRE)379

Recent Form & Comments

  • Vespertilio (FR): A two-time winner. She previously beat My Mate Alfie by a short head in a listed race over this C&D in June. Her latest effort was much improved, finishing second in the Group 3 Ballyogan Stakes at Naas. She is ground versatile and should be in the mix again. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 125.
  • My Mate Alfie (IRE): Won this same race last year and enjoyed a purple patch late last season. Had been running well this season until failing to fire in the Group 1 Sprint Cup at Haydock. He may get back on track in these calmer waters, especially if rain is forecast. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 103.

Spotlight Verdict

As is usually the case in the sprint division these days, this looks wide open. The forecast rain is a plus for a few of these, including last year’s winner MY MATE ALFIE (nap), and he may be able to defend his crown. Spycatcher, Vespertilio and course regular Art Power will also relish a bit of cut in the ground and are feared, as is the other British raider Crestofdistinction. Fregada could outrun her likely odds now stepped back up to a more suitable trip.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 3-8-34, 4yo+ 7-9-54.
  • Fate of Favourites: 3114131144.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): K R Burke 2-0-3, Tim Easterby 2-0-2, A P O’Brien 1-3-7, G M Lyons 1-1-4, Charles O’Brien 0-2-2, W McCreery 0-1-5.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Vespertilio (FR):
    • Strengths: Ground versatile and relishes cut in the ground; solid Group 3 form (runner-up recently); previously beat My Mate Alfie.
    • Weaknesses: Ran poorly in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes.
    • Suitability: Expected to be competitive and relish soft ground.
  • My Mate Alfie (IRE):
    • Strengths: Course and distance winner of this race last year; forecast rain is favorable; expected to rebound in calmer waters.
    • Weaknesses: Failed to fire in his latest Group 1 outing.
    • Suitability: Highly suited, and predicted winner by Spotlight.

3.47 Keadeen Hotel Nursery Handicap (€21,000)

7f, 2yo, SOFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Which Wolf Wins (IRE)315
2Luna Mia299

Recent Form & Comments

  • Which Wolf Wins (IRE): Has shown steady progress since moving into handicaps. He won at Galway off a mark of 72 and was runner up over this C&D last time off 81. He is now 4lb higher. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 93.
  • Luna Mia: Finally broke her maiden at the sixth attempt in a 6f maiden at Naas (yld-sft) ten days ago. She has been consistent and was highly tried earlier in the season. She should go well on her handicap debut back up at 7f. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 99.

Spotlight Verdict

Which Wolf Wins and Invincible Will are closely matched and should be in the shake up again. Luna Mia is respected returned to 7f but VENETIAN STAR finished off very nicely on his nursery debut when 1.5l behind Sovereign Thought at Down Royal and a 6lb swing may enable him to turn the tables in first-time blinkers. Elly Bay and Sanctijude appeal most of the handicap debutantes.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: For 2yo.
  • Fate of Favourites: 220.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): J P Murtagh 1-0-1, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 1-2-4, Gavin Cromwell 0-1-1, Kieran P Cotter 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Which Wolf Wins (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven course and distance runner-up in handicap company; generally progressing well. Closely matched with Invincible Will.
    • Weaknesses: Needs further improvement to win off his increased handicap mark.
    • Suitability: Suitable for the C&D and handicap grade.
  • Luna Mia:
    • Strengths: Consistent performer; recent maiden winner on soft ground; suited by returning to 7f for handicap debut.
    • Weaknesses: Making her handicap debut.
    • Suitability: Expected to go well.

4.22 Friends Of The Curragh Irish Cesarewitch (Premier Handicap) (€600,000)

2m 170y / 2m 1f, 3yo+, YLD-SFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Lord Erskine (IRE)359
2Too Bossy For Us (IRE)356

Recent Form & Comments

  • Lord Erskine (IRE): An admirable veteran who is in the form of his life. He recently won his last Flat start at Killarney (2m 1f, yld-sft) and ran excellently in a listed handicap hurdle at Listowel on Friday. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 123.
  • Too Bossy For Us (IRE): Was runner up over C&D (good) in June off a mark of 89. On his latest start in the Petingo at Leopardstown (1m 5f, gd-yld), he was slightly impeded but finished only 2l behind the winner. He is running off 1lb higher today. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 106.

Spotlight Verdict

A minefield. Joseph O’Brien runs seven and Dylan Browne McMonagle prefers Nurburgring so he has to be considered but COMFORT ZONE is interesting based on his Ascot Stakes third behind his stablemate and Ascending and he might represent a bit of value. Zoffman, Shoda, Sixandahalf, Poetic Sound and the evergreen Falcon Eight are others that can run well.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 3-1-25, 4yo+ 7-29-222.
  • Fate of Favourites: 0005000101.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W P Mullins 3-5-37, A P O’Brien 2-0-9, Emmet Mullins 1-0-5, H Rogers 1-0-3, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 1-5-39, D K Weld 0-2-10, Gavin Cromwell 0-1-7, Joseph G Murphy 0-1-3, Noel Meade 0-4-8.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Lord Erskine (IRE):
    • Strengths: In career-best form; proven winner over this exact distance on yielding/soft ground; excellent stamina.
    • Weaknesses: Running off an 8lb higher mark than his previous Flat win; potential concern if turned out quickly after racing Friday.
    • Suitability: Highly suited to distance and predicted ground.
  • Too Bossy For Us (IRE):
    • Strengths: Has C&D form (runner-up); recent performance in the Petingo Handicap was strong; running off a manageable mark.
    • Weaknesses: Wouldn’t want excessive rain.
    • Suitability: Suitable, provided the ground does not become too heavy.

4.57 Tote Always SP Or Better Maiden (€20,000)

6f, 3yo+, SOFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Glory To Be (IRE)292
2Washington Street (IRE)280

Recent Form & Comments

  • Glory To Be (IRE): Her best effort came when just denied over C&D last time. She finished ahead of Washington Street and several other rivals competing today. She runs off the same terms and is a major player with cheekpieces added. Her TimeWise Master LR rating is 93.
  • Washington Street (IRE): Has been placed on five of his nine starts, including twice over C&D. His last run, over 7f in a Gowran handicap, was described as a “cracker” considering he had trouble getting clear. A repeat of his best form would make him the one to beat. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 81.

Spotlight Verdict

Though the handicap ratings say Washington Street should beat the filly, GLORY TO BE finished in front of him over C&D last time and she can confirm that form with cheekpieces a help. Lunigiana has the form to be competitive but her long absence is offputting. Poweracclaim and Ballintogher can run well.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 5-9-74, 4yo+ 1-3-14.
  • Fate of Favourites: 143610.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): W McCreery 2-1-3.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Glory To Be (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent C&D second, beating her closest rival here; runs off same terms; added cheekpieces could be a help; predicted winner by Spotlight.
    • Weaknesses: Needs to win a maiden after several attempts.
    • Suitability: Highly suited, based on recent C&D form.
  • Washington Street (IRE):
    • Strengths: Consistent performer with multiple placings, including over C&D; recent run was excellent despite trouble.
    • Weaknesses: Recently beaten by Glory To Be over C&D.
    • Suitability: Well-suited to C&D.

5.30 Download The Tote App (Q.R.) Handicap (€18,000)

1m 2f, 3yo+, YLD-SFT

RankHorseTWM Total Rating
1Rain (GER)254
2Tilani (IRE)247

Recent Form & Comments

  • Rain (GER): Won his last race, a 1m 4f Galway handicap, after racing freely, which was his first win in nearly three years. The drop to this 1m 2f trip is expected to be fine, and he should run well despite being raised 5lb. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 84.
  • Tilani (IRE): Got off the mark in a Galway handicap over an extended mile. He was below that level on his subsequent start there. He must rebound from that effort as he steps up in trip. His TimeWise Master LR rating is 62.

Spotlight Verdict

Very competitive. GOTTA CATCH’EM ALL is a tentative selection. Though he is a maiden, he has run well several times including over C&D and is consistent; he is best on good ground. Rain beat Sylkie at Galway last time but it should be closer between them today. Castleheath is also a Galway winner and is just 1lb higher than that day. Zuzukel has modest form figures but has a noteworthy jockey booking. Keilah, Powerful Hook Head, Loingseior and Wertpol can get involved.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-1-5, 4yo+ 0-1-9.
  • Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Andrew Slattery 1-0-1.
  • Note: Fate of Favourites data is not provided for this race in the sources.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Rain (GER):
    • Strengths: Recent winner; the shorter 1m 2f trip is expected to suit well.
    • Weaknesses: Faces a 5lb rise; prone to racing freely.
    • Suitability: Well-suited by the distance.
  • Tilani (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent winner at an extended mile.
    • Weaknesses: Below par on his last start; stepping up in distance requires him to rebound.
    • Suitability: Needs to prove suitability for the longer trip.

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