Pace & Draw Angles
Pace: Likely even-to-strong. Alohi Alii (4) has led and can control from a low gate. Minnie Hauk (1) is uncomplicated and can sit handy. Giavellotto (5) prominent; Sosie (3) can be close. Trackers: Byzantine Dream (15), Cualificar (8). Hold-up/late: Kalpana (10), Quisisana (7), White Birch (9).
Draw at 2400m Longchamp: Low/middle favoured when they go a true gallop. Positives: 1 Minnie Hauk, 2 Daryz, 3 Sosie, 4 Alohi Alii, 5 Giavellotto, 8 Cualificar. Negatives: 15 Byzantine Dream, 12 Aventure, 13 Gezora, 14 Los Angeles, 16 Arrow Eagle, 17 Croix Du Nord.
Strongest Contenders & Angles
Top tier
Minnie Hauk (1) – Promising (P): Four Oaks, travels, handles any ground, gets WFA + sex allowance, perfect rail draw and can sit second line. Major claims.
Aventure (12) – Proven/Progressive (p): Vermeille winner over C&D; second in last year’s Arc; relishes soft/heavy; only real knock is stall 12.
Daryz (2) – Promising (P): Sea The Stars colt with a sharp turn of foot on very soft last time; shapes for 12f; draw 2 ideal for a cold ride and late burst.
Cualificar (8) – Progressive (p): French Derby 2nd; strong Niel winner over C&D; straightforward, good gate 8, trainer’s Arc record speaks for itself.
Main dangers
Sosie (3) – Proven: Longchamp specialist; fitter than in the Foy per yard; soft okay; brilliant map from 3. Rock-solid place chance.
Alohi Alii (4) – Progressive (p): Big step forward at Deauville; from stall 4 he can dictate or sit leader’s quarters; stamina at 12f likely but not guaranteed.
Byzantine Dream (15) – Proven: Beat Sosie in the Foy; thriving and fresh; wide 15 is the headache if they stack early.
Kalpana (10) – Proven: Soft a plus; King George second is elite form; cheekpieces could sharpen; needs to thread a path late.
Live outsiders
Croix Du Nord (17) – Progressive (p): Japanese Derby winner; coped well with very soft at 10f here; stall 17 is a major tax but he’s good enough to outrun it.
Gezora (13) – Promising (P): French Oaks winner; chased Aventure in the Vermeille; improving, but draw 13 complicates.
Quisisana (7) – Progressive (p): Turn-of-foot mare; wants a clean pace and not bottomless; 7 is handy—place squeak if she travels.
On the back foot (today’s set-up)
Giavellotto (5): Classy, but very soft is a negative at this altitude.
Los Angeles (14): Not quite at last year’s level; cheekpieces + wide 14 in the mud is tough.
White Birch (9): Likes cut, stamina at this level/tempo the question.
Leffard (6): GP de Paris high-water mark; needs a rebound and to stay strongly in deep ground.
Hotazhell (11): Soft fine; 12f G1 stamina still to prove.
Arrow Eagle (16): Improving but figures/draw say uphill.
Runner Scores /10 (suitability: 1m4f, Very Soft, Longchamp, draw/pace)
Minnie Hauk (1) – 9/10 (P)
Aventure (12) – 8.5/10 (p)
Daryz (2) – 8.5/10 (P)
Cualificar (8) – 8/10 (p)
Sosie (3) – 8/10
Alohi Alii (4) – 7.5/10 (p) ↑ (benefits from corrected draw)
Kalpana (10) – 7.5/10
Byzantine Dream (15) – 7.5/10 (wide)
Croix Du Nord (17) – 7/10 (p) (ability high; draw harsh)
Gezora (13) – 7/10 (P)
Quisisana (7) – 7/10 (p)
Leffard (6) – 6.5/10
White Birch (9) – 6.5/10
Giavellotto (5) – 6/10
Los Angeles (14) – 6/10
Hotazhell (11) – 5.5/10
Arrow Eagle (16) – 4.5/10
Keep an eye on the market for support or big drifts for runners returning from layoffs of 90+ days.
Watch out for in-form sprinters returning quickly; they can be hot.
Each-Way Angles (17 runners)
Cualificar (8) – Progressive, strong C&D trial, ideal map; very fair EW if double-figures.
Sosie (3) – Bankable Longchamp profile; great draw; frame player.
Kalpana (10) – Soft-ground finisher with headgear; can nab a slot late.
Private Tissue (revised)
Minnie Hauk 7/2
Aventure 9/2
Daryz 11/2
Cualificar 8/1
Sosie 10/1
Kalpana 12/1
Alohi Alii 12/1
Byzantine Dream 12/1
Croix Du Nord 14/1
Gezora 14/1
Quisisana 16/1
Leffard 20/1
White Birch 22/1
Giavellotto 25/1
Los Angeles 25/1
Hotazhell 40/1
Arrow Eagle 66/1
Market watch advised for runners making their 2nd start.
Summary & Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Set-up: Even-to-strong pace on Very Soft: position + stamina vital; low/middle draws favoured. 3yo & filly allowances are a big edge.
Smart Play generated by Chatgpt
Top win bet: Minnie Hauk (1) — (P) Uncomplicated, ideal draw, proven stamina with hefty allowances; travels and can control her own luck.
Each-way saver: Cualificar (8) — (p) Niel winner with the perfect map; still improving.
Close EW alternatives: Sosie (3) (track star, fitter) and Kalpana (10) (soft + cheekpieces, late kick).