Race Overview
Competitive Class 4 (0–80) handicap over 1m2f on ground described as Good to Soft. A mix of improving 3yos and proven 4yos makes for an intriguing race. The pace looks even to fair, with Arbitration, Mawood and Asteverdi likely to go forward. Low-to-middle draws usually hold a small advantage here when there’s cut in the ground, but Nottingham’s long straight can still favour a well-timed late run.
Pace & Run Style Guide
Likely leaders: Arbitration, Mawood, Asteverdi, Three Dons
Midfield sitters: King Al, Beach Point, Due To Henry, Tipsy Tiger
Closers: Stormy Monday, Suzette Defoye, Caughtredhanded, Arthur’s Realm
A steady early gallop is likely, setting the race up for those who travel and quicken smoothly off the bridle.
Leading Contenders
Stormy Monday (Ed Walker / Kieran Shoemark) – Proven / Progressive (p)
Arrives seeking a hat-trick after comfortable 1m2f wins at Epsom (good) and Doncaster (good to soft). Still on the upgrade with RPRs rising into the 90s. Handles ease, finishes strongly, and stable/jockey combo in top form. Very solid favourite.
Mawood (Harry Eustace / P-L Jamin) – Progressive (p)
Off the mark at Redcar (10f, good to soft) two weeks ago, showing grit and improvement. Up 4lb but still fairly treated. Trainer suggests 12f will suit in time, so this is perfect for now. Major player again.
King Al (Alan King / James Doyle) – Progressive (p)
Lightly raced 3yo who won stylishly at Newbury over this trip. Doyle booked and form is holding up well. Handles cut and looks to have plenty more to come. Key 3yo threat.
Arbitration (K. R. Burke / Clifford Lee) – Progressive (p)
Beaten four lengths by Stormy Monday at Doncaster but raced freely that day. If settling better, he can reverse the placings. Burke and Lee are both in excellent nick. Solid each-way credentials.
Tipsy Tiger (William Stone / Alistair Rawlinson) – Proven soft-ground performer
Twice a winner on soft, including over this C&D last season. Returned to form when runner-up at Sandown on similar ground. Trainer wants it no quicker, so monitor conditions closely. Each-way contender if ground holds.
Suzette Defoye (Simon & Ed Crisford / Harry Davies) – Promising (P)
Sea The Moon filly with the right profile for a handicap debut. Showed ability in novices; bred for this trip and ground. Trainer form solid and market moves should be watched carefully. Unexposed and dangerous.
Asteverdi (Hugo Palmer / Jason Hart) – Progressive (p)
C&D soft winner last autumn, now back on her last winning mark. Form has dipped since, but cheekpieces return and she’s back under more suitable conditions. Could outrun big odds.
Others with minor interest
Due To Henry: Back to form last time post-wind op; one for the exotics.
Beach Point: Two Sandown wins earlier this year but needs to rebound from a poor run; wide draw a worry.
Caughtredhanded (P): Gosden 3yo making handicap debut; ability there, but headgear swaps raise a small red flag.
Arthur’s Realm / Global Skies / Three Dons / Pearl Eye: Either out of form, wrong trip, or unsuited by ground.
(Note: Ghost Story and Hinchinbrooke are non-runners.)
Ratings & Suitability (out of 10)
Horse
Score
Comment
Stormy Monday
9/10
Thriving 3yo; perfect setup
Mawood
8.5/10
Tough improver; ideal trip
King Al
8/10
Lightly raced; Doyle booking positive
Arbitration
7.5/10
Right formline; settling key
Tipsy Tiger
7.5/10
Back in form; ground crucial
Suzette Defoye
7/10
Unexposed; market check essential
Asteverdi
6.5/10
C&D winner; headgear back on
Due To Henry
6.5/10
Capable; needs repeat effort
Beach Point
6/10
Needs to bounce back
Caughtredhanded
6/10
Lightly raced; cheekpieces new
Pearl Eye
5.5/10
Not sure this is his best trip
Arthur’s Realm
5/10
Declining profile
Global Skies
4.5/10
Out of form
Three Dons
4/10
Lacks recent match sharpness
Private Tissue (Fair Odds)
Horse
Fair Odds
Stormy Monday
11/4
Mawood
9/2
King Al
11/2
Arbitration
13/2
Tipsy Tiger
13/2
Suzette Defoye
10/1
Asteverdi
14/1
Due To Henry
14/1
Others
16/1+
Each-Way Angles (12 runners)
Tipsy Tiger – well handicapped if ground softens again.
Arbitration – strong collateral form with the favourite.
Asteverdi – C&D returner; interesting at a price.
Smart Play (Pro Punter View)
Win Bet: Stormy Monday (p) – thriving and unexposed; perfect race shape for him to complete the hat-trick.
Each-Way Saver: Arbitration (p) – decent Doncaster fourth behind the favourite; could bridge the gap if relaxing better.
Ground-dependent each-way: Tipsy Tiger – genuine soft-ground form, course winner, value at double figures if conditions ease.
Predicted 1–2–3
Stormy Monday
Mawood
Arbitration
(4th: Tipsy Tiger)
Analysis produced by Raceform Data (GPT-5) — in-depth performance profiling combining RPR, Topspeed, and contextual form trends.