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Chepstow Race Analysis (12/10/2025)

Race 1: 13:32 Chepstow (3m3f Class 4 Champion Equestrian Conditional Jockeys Handicap Chase)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. My Gift To You (IRE)	340.3243
2. Hold Your Fort (IRE)	301.2291

Recent Form and Comments

• My Gift To You (IRE) (7yo): A largely consistent horse who mixes hurdling with chasing and has a very good 8-30 strike-rate over jumps. He is back over fences after making all in a recent Warwick hurdle (3m2f, good). He ought to be on the premises again.
• Hold Your Fort (IRE) (9yo): Arguably posted a career-best performance at Ludlow (3m, good to firm) recently, drawing 25 lengths clear of some flagging rivals. He is effectively only 6lb higher here under a 7lb penalty.

Spotlight Verdict
This can go to DEEP PURPLE, who has a solid record since switched to fences this summer and is of particular interest if judged on his clear second at Worcester two starts ago to a revitalised subsequent winner. Ajp Kingdom ties in with the selection on that Worcester form and is second choice. Safe Destination and last-time-out winners Hold Your Fort and My Gift To You are also of interest.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 4 Handicap Chase over 3m 2f 54y.

• Age Groups: 4yo+.
• Fate of Favourites: No specific statistics provided in the sources.
• Trainer Records: J P Owen trains My Gift To You.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• My Gift To You (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest rated. Possesses a very good 8-30 strike-rate over jumps. Recent form is solid, having won a hurdle race last time out.
  • Weaknesses: Needs to maintain that form returning to fences.
  • Suitability: Ought to be competitive at this trip.
• Hold Your Fort (IRE):
  • Strengths: Posted a possible career-best performance recently on good to firm ground.
  • Weaknesses: Running effectively 6lb higher due to a 7lb penalty. The merit of his last win is hard to gauge as rivals were flagging.
  • Suitability: Handles the good to firm going.

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Race 2: 14:07 Chepstow (2m4f Class 3 DragonBet / EBF Mares National Hunt Novices Hurdle)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Settle Down Jill (IRE)	279.8393
2. Harmony Heights (IRE)	198.9014

Recent Form and Comments

• Settle Down Jill (IRE) (5yo): Irish point winner. She had two notable runs in bumpers (fourth at Cheltenham, second at Warwick, with the winner going on to be placed in a Grade 2). After two previous hurdle attempts, she returned from a wind operation to finish second behind an unexposed mare at Market Rasen. She is returning to a longer trip.
• Harmony Heights (IRE) (6yo): Showed some sign of ability in points and bumpers, being beaten single-figure lengths at Uttoxeter and Southwell. This is considered an ordinary race to launch her hurdling career, and she should be involved.

Spotlight Verdict
Although a beaten favourite the last twice, SETTLE DOWN JILL may have met a good one last time and two of her bumper runs make for very good reading at this level. Freddiemissmolli (second choice) and Riviera Walk are closely matched on a bumper clash at Cheltenham and have nice pedigrees for hurdling. Harmony Heights is the most likely contender out of the others.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 3 Novices Hurdle over 2m 3f 100y. Going: Good.

• Age Groups (W-PL-R): 4yo 0-4-26, 5yo 8-8-55, 6yo 2-5-22, 7yo 0-1-7. (The top two rated horses are 5yo and 6yo).
• Fate of Favourites: 1141141143 (Strong historical performance).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Dan Skelton 1-3-8, Fergal O’Brien 1-1-5.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• Settle Down Jill (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest rated. Strong bumper form at notable tracks like Cheltenham and Warwick. Returning to a more suitable trip.
  • Weaknesses: Her initial attempts over hurdles were mixed.
  • Suitability: Possesses solid claims at this level based on bumper performance.
• Harmony Heights (IRE):
  • Strengths: Likely contender in this type of race, having shown glimmers of ability in previous disciplines.
  • Weaknesses: TimeWise rating is considerably lower than Settle Down Jill.
  • Suitability: Expected to be involved in her hurdling debut given the grade.

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Race 3: 14:42 Chepstow (2m4f Listed Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices Chase)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Blueking Doroux (FR)	395.2765
2. Doyen Quest (IRE)	306.0541

Recent Form and Comments

• Blueking Doroux (FR) (6yo): Twice successful in Grade 2 hurdles, the latest win being at Sandown (2m5f, good) in April. He is expected to take high rank in the novice chasing scene.
• Doyen Quest (IRE) (7yo): A smart handicapper over hurdles, particularly over 3m. He won on his chase debut in May over 2m4f against two inferior rivals. He subsequently struggled at 2m in a handicap at Worcester.

Spotlight Verdict
This is all about BLUEKING D’OROUX who could be destined for big things as a novice chaser and should win this with a suitably efficient round of jumping. Main danger Doyen Quest will probably be seen to better effect when back over 3m. Speculatrix is preferred of the other three.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 1 Listed Novices Chase over 2m 3f 98y. Going: Good To Firm.

• Age Groups (W-PL-R): 4yo 0-0-1, 5yo 1-1-6, 6yo 5-1-18, 7yo 2-2-14, 8yo 2-0-4.
• Fate of Favourites: 441223112P (Mixed success historically).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Dan Skelton 2-0-5, Paul Nicholls 1-3-9, Charlie Longsdon 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• Blueking Doroux (FR):
  • Strengths: Holds the highest rating by a wide margin. Proven class as a Grade 2 hurdle winner. Drying ground is ideal.
  • Weaknesses: The outcome hinges on his jumping proficiency on chase debut.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable; viewed as a likely winner by the Spotlight analyst.
• Doyen Quest (IRE):
  • Strengths: Back over a distance (2m4f) that suits him better than 2m. Already has a chase win.
  • Weaknesses: Not as highly regarded as the favourite over hurdles and likely performs best at 3m.
  • Suitability: A potential threat if the favourite is inefficient.

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Race 4: 15:17 Chepstow (2m½f Class 2 DragonBet ‘Welsh Champion’ Hurdle)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Celtic Dino (FR)	357.8756
2. Tutti Quanti (FR)	339.7694

Recent Form and Comments

• Celtic Dino (FR) (6yo): Was a commendable third on his handicap debut at Aintree in April, where he made headway from the rear to lead between the final two flights.
• Tutti Quanti (FR) (5yo): Has a 2-6 record over hurdles. Easily won a Ffos Las novice (2m, good to soft) in April. This is his seasonal/handicap debut, and while he faces much tougher opposition, he probably still has potential.

Spotlight Verdict
Sam Thomas won last year’s Welsh Champion Hurdle (at Ffos Las) with a lightly raced 6yo and can do so again this season with CELTIC DINO (nap), who was a commendable third on his handicap debut at Aintree in April. Tutti Quanti remains unexposed over hurdles and is feared most, while good cases can also be made for Norman Fletcher and Listentoyourheart.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 2 Limited Handicap Hurdle over 2m 11y. Going: Good To Firm.

• Age Groups: Restricted to 5yo+. Specific age breakdown statistics not provided in the sources.
• Fate of Favourites: 41 (Only two historical results listed).
• Trainer Records: Trainer Sam Thomas won the Welsh Champion Hurdle last year.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• Celtic Dino (FR):
  • Strengths: Highest rated. Has high-level handicap form (third at Aintree) and demonstrated a strong racing style. Selected as the nap.
  • Weaknesses: None explicitly noted in the sources.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for this type of prestigious handicap.
• Tutti Quanti (FR):
  • Strengths: Remains unexposed over hurdles and carries potential.
  • Weaknesses: Facing tougher opposition on handicap debut.
  • Suitability: Shortlisted and considered the main danger to the favourite.

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Race 5: 15:52 Chepstow (2m4f Class 2 DragonBet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Saint Segal (FR)	365.3661
2. Riskintheground (IRE)	338.4899

Recent Form and Comments

• Saint Segal (FR) (7yo): A keen-goer who won over C&D (good) last season. He won last season at Newbury (2m4f, good to soft). He makes his seasonal debut on a tough mark, having failed to threaten when patiently ridden in his reappearance outing in this race a year ago.
• Riskintheground (IRE) (8yo): Achieved career-best form in April, including winning a Grade 2 handicap at Cheltenham (2m4f, good). He ran well in the Summer Plate in July on his latest outing. He is likely to have little margin for error off his current mark.

Spotlight Verdict
Dan Skelton runs five in this and the riding arrangements suggest a big run is likely from JET PLANE, who did well in hunter chases last season and is on a workable handicap mark. The 9yo finished behind Mount Tempest at Worcester last month but that run ought to have brought him on. Mount Tempest can go well again.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 2 Handicap Chase over 2m 3f 98y. Going: Good To Firm.

• Age Groups (W-PL-R): 5yo 1-0-1, 6yo 1-2-10, 7yo 2-4-21, 8yo 3-6-22, 9yo 2-3-20, 10yo 1-1-5, 11yo 0-0-1.
• Fate of Favourites: 45120F5F13 (History suggests caution with favourites).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Paul Nicholls 3-0-9, Dan Skelton 0-2-10, Tom Lacey 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• Saint Segal (FR):
  • Strengths: Highest rated. Proven C&D winner who handles good ground. Finds a good rhythm when allowed to lead.
  • Weaknesses: Begins the campaign on a tough mark. His reappearance in this race last year was disappointing.
  • Suitability: Proven at this track and trip, but seasonal debut performance is key.
• Riskintheground (IRE):
  • Strengths: In career-best form earlier this year, including a Grade 2 success. Ran creditably in July.
  • Weaknesses: Margin for error is minimal off his current mark. Stable jockey prefers another runner (Jet Plane).
  • Suitability: Considered an each-way contender.

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Race 6: 16:27 Chepstow (2m½f Class 3 dragonbet.co.uk Born From The Betting Ring Seniors Handicap Hurdle)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. King William Rufus (FR)	326.3525
2. Bucephalus (GER)	318.4149

Recent Form and Comments

• King William Rufus (FR) (8yo): Winner at Cheltenham (2m1f, good) in April off 4lb lower, after appreciating the drop in grade to Class 3. He is handicapped to go well if he resumes in similar form.
• Bucephalus (GER) (8yo): C&D winner who defied a 7lb rise comfortably here in February. He made late mistakes but would have won more easily otherwise. He faces an additional 9lb rise today (with jockey claim factored in).

Spotlight Verdict
Washington is 10lb higher than when winning this 12 months ago but that might not stop him. However, KING WILLIAM RUFUS could be that bit better handicapped having been raised only 4lb for winning in a big field at Cheltenham in April. Bubble Dubi could trouble both of them if he’s as good as he was when last seen in February 2024.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 3 Seniors Handicap Hurdle over 2m 11y. Going: Good To Firm.

• Age Groups (W-PL-R): Restricted to 8yo+. 8yo 2-2-11, 9yo 0-1-4, 10yo 0-0-3, 11yo 0-0-1.
• Fate of Favourites: 51 (Very limited history provided).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Harry Derham 1-0-1, Stuart Edmunds 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• King William Rufus (FR):
  • Strengths: Highest rated. Strong recent win at Cheltenham (2m1f). Viewed as the better handicapped runner by the analyst.
  • Weaknesses: Needs to return from his break maintaining his form.
  • Suitability: Expected to go well.
• Bucephalus (GER):
  • Strengths: Proven winner at Chepstow (C&D win implied by ‘CD’ notation).
  • Weaknesses: Facing a testing 9lb rise in weight. Prone to late mistakes.
  • Suitability: Faces a difficult task from the weights standpoint.

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Race 7: 17:02 Chepstow (2m½f Class 2 Wasdell Group Open NH Flat Race)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Crossgales King (IRE)	237.6553
2. Yeld To Call (FR)	213.5389

Recent Form and Comments

• Crossgales King (IRE) (5yo): Runner-up in two points. Finished a well-held third in a bumper here before showing better form at Ayr (2m, good to soft) behind a winner trained by Willie Mullins.
• Yeld To Call (FR) (4yo): Was beaten 6l into fourth place in a mares’ race at Newbury (soft). She caught the eye with how she moved through that race.

Spotlight Verdict
Paul Nicholls winning this race five times in nine years naturally heightens interest in Lancelot D’Alene. But the suggestion is LAKE TIBERIAS, a half-brother to Ahorsewithnoname who won a bumper and went on to be very useful on the Flat and over hurdles for Nicky Henderson. Cooltobecareless is also noted.

Race Statistics
The race is a Class 2 Open NH Flat Race over 2m 11y. Going: Good To Firm.

• Age Groups (W-PL-R): Restricted to 4-5yo. 4yo 7-8-54, 5yo 3-4-24, 6yo 0-2-6.
• Fate of Favourites: 0106141511 (Poor performance historically).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Paul Nicholls 5-1-10 (Very strong record in this race), Dan Skelton 1-0-4.

Assessment of Top Two Chances

• Crossgales King (IRE):
  • Strengths: Has prior experience in bumpers and points.
  • Weaknesses: His prior Chepstow bumper run was well-held. Needs improvement to beat potentially promising newcomers.
  • Suitability: Needs to step up his performance level for this class.
• Yeld To Call (FR):
  • Strengths: Showed potential in her Newbury debut.
  • Weaknesses: Facing male runners in this contest.
  • Suitability: Should have a future in racing.