Briefing Document: Horse Racing Analysis for October 12/25, 2025

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Executive Summary

This document provides a comprehensive synthesis of expert analysis, quantitative data, and market intelligence for the horse racing meetings at Chepstow, Cork, Goodwood, and Naas on October 12/25, 2025. The analysis integrates qualitative assessments from Spotlight verdicts, numerical ratings from the Timewise model, and real-time betting sentiment reflected in market mover data.

A significant number of non-runners have substantially altered the composition of several key races, most notably at Chepstow. The 2:42 Novices’ Chase has been transformed by the withdrawal of the prohibitive 4-9 favorite, Blueking D’Oroux, leaving Doyen Quest as the clear contender. The 3:52 Memorial Handicap Chase has been reduced from nine runners to just four, with the market now overwhelmingly supporting Saint Segal.

The standout selection of the day is Celtic Dino in the 3:17 DragonBet ‘Welsh Champion’ Hurdle at Chepstow. Designated as the ‘nap’ (best bet) by the Spotlight analysis, this selection is strongly supported by a top rating in the Timewise quantitative model and a significant positive market move, indicating a powerful consensus.

Other key points of interest include:

• Strong Market Confidence: Significant market moves have highlighted several runners, including Moveit Like Minnie (4:27 Chepstow), whose odds have halved from 5.00 to 2.50, and Back In Black (4:47 Goodwood).

• High-Value Contests: The £50,000 Welsh Champion Hurdle (3:17 Chepstow) and the €100,000 Colm White Bookmaker Beggar’s End Handicap (4:20 Naas) are the day’s most valuable and competitive races.

• Expert vs. Market Divergence: In the 4:27 Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle at Chepstow, the withdrawal of the top selections has left Washington as the logical expert pick, but an aggressive market move favors Moveit Like Minnie, creating a compelling betting narrative.

• Promising Debutants: The 5:02 NH Flat Race at Chepstow features several well-regarded newcomers. While Spotlight analyst Alistair Jones favors Lake Tiberias on pedigree, the betting market has strongly supported Cooltobecareless.

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Chepstow Race Meeting Analysis

1:32 Champion Equestrian Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase

• Race Details: Class 4, 3m 2f, £16,500 Total Prize Value, Good to Firm

• Non-Runners: First Lord De Cuet, Impatient. The field is reduced to 8 runners.

Synopsis: A competitive handicap chase for conditional jockeys. The analysis focuses on horses with recent winning form and those who may be on a workable handicap mark.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Deep PurpleMajor player with solid chase form. Better judged on clear second two starts ago. Spotlight’s top selection.283.28Yes (7.50 -> 5.00)
My Gift To YouLargely consistent with an excellent 8-30 strike-rate. Ought to be on the premises again.340.32No
Ajp KingdomComes here after two good recent runs and is still on a workable mark. Respected. Spotlight’s second choice.283.28Yes (8.00 -> 6.00)
Hold Your FortImpressive 25-length winner at Ludlow recently. Effectively 6lb higher here and hard to assess that form.301.23No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict confidently selects Deep Purple, an opinion backed by a positive market move. However, the Timewise quantitative model identifies My Gift To You as the top-rated horse by a significant margin. Ajp Kingdom is also well-supported across all metrics, tying with the selection on Worcester form and being the Spotlight’s second choice.

2:07 DragonBet / EBF Mares’ National Hunt Novices Hurdle

• Race Details: Class 3, 2m 3½f, £16,500 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runners: Gower Spirit, Northern Reel. The field is reduced to 6 runners.

Synopsis: A novices’ hurdle for mares. The focus is on runners with strong bumper form or promising pedigrees for jumping making their hurdling debut.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Settle Down JillSolid chance. Two of her bumper runs make for very good reading at this level. Spotlight’s top selection.279.84No
FreddiemissmolliClosely matched with Riviera Walk on bumper form and has a nice pedigree. Spotlight’s second choice.163.51No
Riviera WalkShouldn’t be far away. Finished alongside Freddiemissmolli at Cheltenham.175.99No

Analysis & Conclusion: There is a strong consensus for Settle Down Jill. She is the clear top pick in the Spotlight verdict and holds a commanding lead in the Timewise quantitative ratings, making her the standout contender in this race.

2:42 Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed Race)

• Race Details: Class 1, 2m 3½f, £40,000 Total Prize Value, Good to Firm

• Non-Runner: Blueking D’Oroux.

Synopsis: This Listed race has been dramatically altered by the withdrawal of the 4-9 favourite, Blueking D’Oroux. The Spotlight analysis had stated, “This is all about BLUEKING D’OROUX,” making his absence the single most important factor.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis Summary (Adjusted for NR)Timewise TotalMarket Mover
Doyen QuestThe Spotlight text noted he “might be the one should the favourite fluff his lines.” With the favorite withdrawn, he becomes the logical pick.306.05Yes (2.00 -> 1.67)
SpeculatrixPreferred of the other runners, but relying on the top-rated horses being below their best.259.14No

Analysis & Conclusion: The withdrawal of Blueking D’Oroux has rendered the race a likely contest for Doyen Quest. This is reflected in the adjusted Spotlight verdict, his top position in the Timewise ratings among remaining runners, and a significant market move shortening his odds.

3:17 DragonBet ‘Welsh Champion’ Hurdle

• Race Details: Class 2, 2m, £50,000 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runner: Titan Discovery. The field is reduced to 10 runners.

Synopsis: A high-value, competitive limited handicap hurdle. The analysis points towards lightly raced, progressive hurdlers with potential for improvement.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Celtic Dino(nap) Commendable third on handicap debut at Aintree, still has more to offer. Spotlight’s best bet of the day.357.88Yes (3.25 -> 2.38)
Tutti QuantiRemains unexposed over hurdles and is feared most by the Spotlight analyst.339.77No
WilfulCommendable second at Punchestown festival; a contender if in the same form after a break.339.70No
ListentoyourheartCould plausibly have improvement to come this year. A good case can be made.324.93No

Analysis & Conclusion: A powerful consensus exists for Celtic Dino. He is the Spotlight’s ‘nap’ selection, the top-rated horse in the Timewise model, and has been the subject of strong market support. This alignment of qualitative, quantitative, and market indicators makes him the standout contender of the entire race day.

3:52 DragonBet John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase

• Race Details: Class 2, 2m 3½f, £40,000 Total Prize Value, Good to Firm

• Non-Runners: Unexpected Party, Harpers Brook, Jet Plane, Nocte Volatus, Riskintheground.

Synopsis: This race has been decimated by five withdrawals, including the Spotlight’s top selection, Jet Plane. The field is reduced from nine runners to just four, completely changing the dynamics of the race.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis Summary (Adjusted for NRs)Timewise TotalMarket Mover
Saint SegalBegins campaign on a tough mark, but won over C&D last season. Keen-goer.365.37Yes (3.50 -> 2.00)
Mount TempestCaused a 50-1 shock at Worcester; Spotlight notes he “can go well again.”334.12Yes (7.50 -> 3.75)
Il RidotoCheltenham regular who may need the run to tee him up for a return there next month.315.44No

Analysis & Conclusion: With the original top picks withdrawn, the betting market has overwhelmingly focused on Saint Segal, whose price has contracted sharply. He is also the highest-rated runner on the Timewise model. Mount Tempest also receives positive market support and a favorable mention in the Spotlight analysis, positioning him as the main danger.

4:27 Dragonbet Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle

• Race Details: Class 3, 2m, £20,000 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runners: Bubble Dubi, King William Rufus.

Synopsis: A handicap hurdle for older horses. The withdrawal of the Spotlight’s top selection, King William Rufus, and another key contender, Bubble Dubi, significantly alters the race outlook.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis Summary (Adjusted for NRs)Timewise TotalMarket Mover
WashingtonWon this race 12 months ago. With other main contenders out, he becomes the logical Spotlight pick.300.45No
Moveit Like MinnieComes with risks over fences but ran a solid race back over hurdles. Has had wind surgery.268.98Yes (5.00 -> 2.50)
BucephalusHas to deal with a 9lb rise for previous wins, which asks a “quite a question of him.”318.41No

Analysis & Conclusion: Washington is the default Spotlight selection following the withdrawals. However, the most significant factor is the dramatic market support for Moveit Like Minnie, whose odds have been halved. The Timewise model favors top-weight Bucephalus, creating a race with conflicting signals from different analytical perspectives.

5:02 Wasdell Group Open National Hunt Flat Race

• Race Details: Class 2, 2m, £16,500 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runner: Crossgales King. The field is reduced to 8 runners.

Synopsis: A “bumper” race for newcomers with little or no rules form, making analysis reliant on pedigrees, point-to-point form, and trainer reputation.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Lake TiberiasSpotlight’s top selection. An interesting newcomer for a yard that wins plenty of these races.50.15No
Lancelot D’AleneNow with Paul Nicholls, who has won this race five times in nine years.62.99No
CooltobecarelessThe horse he beat in an Irish point fetched £165,000. Has to be of interest.56.64Yes (2.63 -> 2.10)

Analysis & Conclusion: A difficult race to assess. Spotlight analyst Alistair Jones favors Lake Tiberias based on pedigree. However, strong cases are made for Lancelot D’Alene due to his trainer’s exceptional record in the race, and for Cooltobecareless based on strong Irish point form. The betting market has strongly sided with Cooltobecareless, making him the favorite.

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Cork Race Meeting Analysis

1:10 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Academy Hurdle

• Race Details: 2m 1½f, €11,000 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runners: Brave Josee, Eamon’s Dream. The field has 17 runners.

Synopsis: The first race in a new initiative for developing young National Hunt horses, making it a “guessing game where the market can be revealing.”

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Hardy StuffSpotlight’s top selection. Well-seasoned from a top yard and makes more appeal than the favorite.52.39No
Ronnie’s RascalSole runner for Champion trainer W.P. Mullins, warrants plenty of respect.53.49No
Out Of AcesHas a proper dual-purpose pedigree and catches the eye for a top yard.38.53No
Wee FallonOthers make more appeal based on pedigree.16.82Yes (51.00 -> 19.00)

Analysis & Conclusion: While the Champion trainer’s runner Ronnie’s Rascal is respected and top-rated by the Timewise model, the Spotlight verdict favors Hardy Stuff. The most notable data point is the huge market move for outsider Wee Fallon, whose odds have collapsed from 51.00 to 19.00, suggesting significant insider confidence.

1:42 WTW Willis 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle

• Race Details: 1m 7½f, €12,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
BridezillaJust denied on the Flat last time and was runner-up on both hurdle starts. Can go one better. Top selection.270.26No
KibrisHolds a Flat rating of 89 so has to be respected on hurdles debut for a top yard.257.22No
Crooked PathWas just denied at Gowran last week and should go well.193.00No

Analysis & Conclusion: Bridezilla is the clear pick, backed by both the Spotlight verdict and the top rating in the Timewise model. Her recent strong form and experience over hurdles make her the one to beat.

2:17 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

• Race Details: 2m 2½f, €10,000 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runner: Theanniversary Man. The field has 17 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Mon SheriffeLess exposed, hinted at winning potential. Dropping back in trip should suit. Top selection.204.08Yes (11.00 -> 8.50)
JaadilRan well at Navan last time and should be in the mix again.199.99No
OnefortheditchA previous C&D winner capable of running into a place off her current mark.255.31No
TedworthHandicapper is relenting, but more is needed.207.91Yes (15.00 -> 9.00)

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict favors the unexposed Mon Sheriffe, and this opinion is supported by a positive market move. However, the Timewise model prefers the proven course and distance winner Onefortheditch.

2:52 Connolly’s RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle

• Race Details: 2m 4½f, €20,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Kevin’s PrideHas the rating to take this if close to his best and has gone well fresh. Top selection.262.86Yes (2.00 -> 1.80)
ItsaworkinmaniamCould be one to give the selection most to do. Best run when runner-up to a smart rival at Navan.183.83No
Found A DiamondCapable of better than his recent comeback run.213.15No

Analysis & Conclusion: There is a strong consensus for Kevin’s Pride, who is the top pick for Spotlight, the highest-rated in the Timewise model, and has seen his odds shorten in the market.

3:27 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice Hurdle

• Race Details: 3m, €15,500 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Penny PerfectRated 116, gets weight from her rivals, and should relish the step up in trip. Top selection.277.12No
Fad EadrainnCould prove to be the biggest danger. Rated 125 but has to give weight away.231.03No
TackletommywoowooInteresting that his trainer rides, but has a bit to find on the figures.241.56No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Gordon Elliott-trained 4-year-old filly Penny Perfect is the clear choice. She receives a weight allowance, is the Spotlight selection, and is the highest-rated runner on the Timewise model.

4:02 William Hill Rated Novice Chase

• Race Details: 2m 1½f, €11,500 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Kazakh D’ArthelThe best horse in the race with a rating of 108; can win if jumping soundly. Top selection.258.12No
Rockstown GirlHas the ability to go close if jumping soundly but unseated on her sole chase start.239.71No
Chosen ShantPoor on two chase tries and needs to do better.205.75Yes (9.00 -> 5.50)
Royal TimeHas a bit to find on hurdle ratings.185.23Yes (11.00 -> 6.00)

Analysis & Conclusion: While Kazakh D’Arthel is the clear pick based on ratings and expert analysis, notable market support has emerged for two outsiders, Chosen Shant and Royal Time, suggesting they may outperform expectations.

4:37 Co-Op Superstores Handicap Chase

• Race Details: 2m 1½f, €45,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Luminous LightGets the vote. A course winner who shaped encouragingly on return to chasing. Top selection.253.10No
Rebel GoldVeteran who is feared returning to handicap company.282.12No
The Banger DoyleLast year’s winner of this race is respected.242.64No

Analysis & Conclusion: In a valuable handicap chase, the Spotlight verdict sides with the course specialist Luminous Light. However, the Timewise model favors the veteran top-weight Rebel Gold.

5:12 (Pro/Am) INH Flat Race

• Race Details: 2m 3f, €11,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Something Fabulous(nap) Preferred selection. The form of her Tramore win has been boosted and she should stay this far.257.98No
Minella EmperorWill appreciate the return to this distance.197.82No
Carrigmoorna BeechBetter than she showed last time but good ground is a query.161.57No

Analysis & Conclusion: Spotlight analyst Dave Stephens has made Something Fabulous his ‘nap’ of the day at Cork. This is supported by a top rating in the Timewise model, indicating a strong chance.

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Goodwood Race Meeting Analysis

1:52 Alderbrook Handicap

• Race Details: Class 4, 2m, £12,650 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
MerrijigGets the vote. A proven stayer in reasonable recent form.233.22Yes (11.00 -> 5.00)
Spiced RumMay pose the chief threat. A previous Flat and hurdles winner back with a former trainer.262.43Yes (6.00 -> 3.75)
Marble SandsAll four Flat runs on AW; probably more interesting back over jumps but market may guide.286.43No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight selection is Merrijig, who has seen very strong market support. The quantitative Timewise model prefers Marble Sands, but the most significant market confidence, besides Merrijig, is for Spiced Rum.

2:27 Virgin Bet Restricted Novice Stakes

• Race Details: Class 4, 6f, £15,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Sing The BluesTaken to get back on track with a win. Has had a break and holds leading claims if rediscovering debut promise.242.23No
MollstarFeared most. A newcomer whose trainer has unearthed some useful 2yos this year.45.85No
Caballo GrandeBred to have a future and not ruled out on debut.42.78Yes (7.50 -> 4.00)

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict and Timewise model both favor Sing The Blues. However, a notable market move for debutant Caballo Grande suggests a strong performance is expected.

3:02 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Nursery Handicap

• Race Details: Class 4, 7f, £15,650 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runner: Mayaada. The field is reduced to 10 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Crazee Icon(nap) Lots went wrong on nursery debut but was beaten just a short head. Can go one better today.254.66No
Authentic CharmThe step up in trip could be a positive on nursery debut. Main threat.238.89No
Swift WindsPossible she’ll have more to offer now back at this track.279.30No

Analysis & Conclusion: Spotlight analyst Ben Hutton has selected Crazee Icon as his ‘nap’ of the day at Goodwood, believing she can overcome the bad luck from her last run. The Timewise model, however, favors Swift Winds.

3:37 Virgin Bet Handicap

• Race Details: Class 3, 6f, £15,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Wheels Of FireEarns the vote. Has not had much luck on last two starts and could play a leading role.273.24No
Aberama GoldIn-form veteran who has run really well in defeat on his last two starts. Key player.359.68No
Thunder BlueArrives in good heart and is an in-form C&D winner.286.92No

Analysis & Conclusion: A competitive handicap where the Spotlight verdict sides with the potentially unlucky Wheels Of Fire. The quantitative analysis, however, strongly points to the veteran Aberama Gold, who holds a significant rating advantage.

4:12 Virgin Bet EBF Novice Stakes

• Race Details: Class 4, 1m 1f, £15,000 Total Prize Value, Good

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Poseidon’s WarriorKept on well for second on debut despite greenness. Looks the best form and should improve. Top selection.299.40No
Edwin HubbleFinished just behind the selection at Haydock and should be seriously involved again.257.61No
Roker RoarA newcomer from a leading stable whose market support should be revealing.62.18No

Analysis & Conclusion: Poseidon’s Warrior is the consensus pick, leading both the Spotlight analysis and the Timewise ratings after a promising debut run.

4:47 Inkerman London Handicap

• Race Details: Class 2, 1m, £25,000 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runners: Alpha Crucis, Great Chieftain, Hafeet Alain. The field is reduced to 12 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Back In BlackUnexposed 3yo who shaped as if the step up to 1m would suit. Top selection.354.98Yes (4.50 -> 3.00)
Cerulean BayAt the top of his game after a C&D win last month. Has to be respected.371.60No
TheoryofeverythingClose second last time out; his four wins have all come on soft ground.327.49No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict picks the unexposed and improving Back In Black, a view strongly endorsed by the market. The Timewise model slightly favors the recent course and distance winner Cerulean Bay, setting up a competitive finish.

5:22 Virgin Bet Fillies’ Handicap

• Race Details: Class 4, 1m 2f, £12,650 Total Prize Value, Good

• Non-Runner: Roarin Success. The field is reduced to 11 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Just Keep FlyingLightly raced and open to further improvement. Top selection.337.35No
Day Of GraceWon at Windsor last time out and represents a top yard.289.48No
LiberatePrevious C&D winner who could bounce back to form.265.71Yes (21.00 -> 15.00)

Analysis & Conclusion: Just Keep Flying is the clear choice here, top-rated by a wide margin in the Timewise model and selected by the Spotlight analyst as a horse open to significant improvement.

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Naas Race Meeting Analysis

1:25 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

• Race Details: 6f, €18,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
InstituteFrankel filly who can do better now having learned from her debut experience. Top selection.254.85No
Josh’s JoyA beaten favourite twice but is consistent and should go close.274.65No
PurelyStablemate to the selection; market can guide among the newcomers.46.02No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict favors Institute to improve from her debut, but the quantitative Timewise model gives the edge to the more experienced Josh’s Joy.

2:00 Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden

• Race Details: 6f, €18,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Strike ZoneMay be ready to pounce now after pulling clear of the rest when second at Cork. Top selection.290.87No
Savile RowHas been running consistently and can make his presence felt.299.27No
Chicago PopeCould get involved back at this level after being outclassed in a Group 2.266.45No

Analysis & Conclusion: A close contest is expected between the two top-rated horses. The Spotlight analyst leans towards Strike Zone, while the Timewise model narrowly favors Savile Row.

2:35 Irish EBF Auction Series Race Final

• Race Details: 7f, €120,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Green CitationAppeared to be the pick of the four J.P. O’Brien runners on jockey bookings. Can improve from debut.314.20No
Redemption RoadHas the edge over Madbadanddangerous on Tipperary form. Has the highest official rating.293.49No
ListentodwindblowAnother O’Brien runner who is not discounted.332.29No

Analysis & Conclusion: In a valuable and complex auction race, the Spotlight verdict follows jockey bookings to Green Citation. However, the Timewise model identifies his stablemate Listentodwindblow as the top-rated contender. Redemption Road, with the highest official rating, is also a key player.

3:10 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Garnet Stakes (Listed Race)

• Race Details: 1m, €50,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
SwelterThe sole Group winner in the field; can get back on track after a break and is the one to beat. Top selection.347.72No
Fiery LucyHolds major claims if back to her best form, which includes a Breeders’ Cup fourth.314.82No
AbloomProgressive 3yo from a respected British yard; don’t rule out.339.92No

Analysis & Conclusion: Swelter is the class act in the race and is the top selection for both the Spotlight analyst and the Timewise model, making her a strong favorite to return to winning ways.

3:45 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Bluebell Stakes (Listed Race)

• Race Details: 1m 4f, €50,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

• Non-Runner: Zora. The field has 18 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
It’s A HeartbeatUnexposed filly who won her last two starts and is a likely leading contender.322.02No
Island HoppingIrish Oaks third should appreciate the return to this trip. A leading player.381.41No
Bonnie MoonTook her form to a new level last time out and should go well.310.06No
RomzinaCould go well after being left with too much to do in a recent run.334.86Yes (9.50 -> 7.50)

Analysis & Conclusion: A competitive listed race. While the Spotlight verdict opts for the unexposed It’s A Heartbeat, the Timewise model strongly favors the class of Island Hopping, who finished third in the Irish Oaks. Market support for Romzina adds another layer of intrigue.

4:20 Colm White Bookmaker Beggar’s End Handicap

• Race Details: 2m, €100,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

• Non-Runners: Bottler’Secret, En Or, Sorrentino. The field has 20 runners.

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Lord ChurchA chance is taken on this horse, who may benefit from the step up in trip and added tongue-tie.276.57No
Light As AirJust touched off in a key prep race (the Petingo) and has obvious claims.348.40No
Lord ErskineAdmirable veteran who fared best of these in the Irish Cesarewitch and should be thereabouts again.332.83No
JetaraSmart staying hurdler who was barely denied last time on the Flat and can go well.316.79Yes (11.00 -> 8.50)

Analysis & Conclusion: In the day’s richest race, the Spotlight analyst takes a chance on Lord Church to improve for the new distance. The quantitative model, however, points to the progressive 3-year-old Light As Air, who was narrowly beaten in a key trial.

4:55 TRM Calphormin Apprentice Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 2½f, €11,500 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Edergole’s AngelWon with a bit in hand last time and could defy an 8lb rise.233.33No
CalzaghiDefinite player after a good comeback run last month.237.53No
Positive EnergyBeaten favourite on three of four runs this term but likes an ease in the ground.250.97No

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight verdict favors last-time-out winner Edergole’s Angel. The Timewise model gives a slight edge to Positive Energy in a competitive apprentice race.

5:30 Flat Finale At Naas Fillies Handicap

• Race Details: 1m 2½f, €16,000 Total Prize Value, Yielding

Key ContenderSpotlight Analysis SummaryTimewise TotalMarket Mover
Kashel SpringTaken to confirm recent form over her rivals; likely to improve again for this longer trip.266.54No
Ob La DiPrevious C&D winner who warrants plenty of respect.285.19No
Annie’s AngelWould be a big player if handling the ground; her best form is on softer.265.03No
PresenceHas to be considered back on better ground; longer trip will suit.227.75Yes (11.00 -> 8.50)

Analysis & Conclusion: The Spotlight analyst believes Kashel Spring can uphold recent winning form and improve for the extra distance. The Timewise model gives the advantage to Ob La Di, a previous course and distance winner.

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