TimeWise Chronicles

MUSSELBURGH: This analysis covers all Musselburgh races in chronological order, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated selections based on the provided data.

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Race 1: 1.52 Ray Hawthorne Memorial Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap

(Class 5, 1m 208y/1m1f, Good, 9 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Triple Force (4)2803.00
2Jewel Maker (IRE) (10)2503.50

Recent Form and Comments

  • Triple Force (4yo): Recent form figures are 132221. He made all in the Amateur Jockeys’ Cambridgeshire at Newmarket (1m1f, good) last time out. His record since wearing a visor is very solid (1132221). He is listed as a front-runner (L).
  • Jewel Maker (IRE) (10yo): Recent form figures are 351251. This in-form veteran won at Carlisle (1m) in early September and followed up with a win at Redcar (1m2f) last time, showing he retains a fair level of ability. He is usually held up (H).

Spotlight Verdict

The prediction favours TRIPLE FORCE (nap) to follow up his Newmarket success and enhance his strong record since wearing a visor. Shielas Well is noted as second choice, ahead of Believe In Lies.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 3-3-17, 4yo+ 0-3-25 (General Flat Handicap statistics mentioned in sources, specific winners’ age data not provided for this class/distance).
  • Fate of Favourites: Not listed for this specific race in the sources.
  • Trainer Records (W-R/W-Pl-R): C Lidster (Triple Force’s trainer) 50% success rate in the last 14 days; T Easterby (Jewel Maker’s trainer) 45% success rate in the last 14 days.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Triple Force:
    • Strengths: Proven record with the visor (1132221), recent victory came under Amateur Jockey rules at a similar trip, confirmed front-running style (L).
    • Weaknesses: Now carrying weight after recent success.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable given recent winning form and efficacy with headgear.
  • Jewel Maker (IRE):
    • Strengths: In excellent recent form with two victories, an in-form veteran retaining ability.
    • Weaknesses: Running style is held up (H), relying on recent form holding in this deeper company.
    • Suitability: Competitive, though the spotlight suggests Triple Force is more convincing.

Race 2: 2.22 100% Racingtv Profits Back To Racing Selling Stakes

(Class 3, 7f 15y, Good, 8 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Homestrait (IRE) (2)2635.50
2Real Man (2)2534.00

Recent Form and Comments

  • Homestrait (IRE) (2yo): Recent form figures are 221210. He had a solid record (2222121) other than his most recent stiff task in the Goffs Million. He gained a previous win in a C&D seller but is now carrying a double penalty. He typically presses the leaders (P).
  • Real Man (2yo): Recent form figures are 95333. He is a six-race maiden whose best form—three third-place finishes over 7f/1m in August/September—gives him a major chance in this field. He wore first-time cheekpieces (P1) and did too much up front at York recently. He is usually held up (H).

Spotlight Verdict

SANIYAAT’S STAR looks a solid alternative after running creditably at maiden/nursery level last month. Fine Art Dealer is noted as an interesting entry for a seller.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups, Fate of Favourites, Trainer Records: Specific data for this race is not consolidated in the source excerpts.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Homestrait (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven winning form in a C&D seller, historically solid form profile.
    • Weaknesses: Carries a double penalty which makes the task harder, latest run was disappointing.
    • Suitability: Likely contender based on C&D win, but penalized.
  • Real Man:
    • Strengths: Best form (three recent thirds) gives him a major chance in this field as a maiden, fitted with first-time cheekpieces.
    • Weaknesses: Still a maiden, tendency to run too keenly (did too much up front last time).
    • Suitability: Potential chance if the headgear helps him settle and he delivers on his recent form flashes.

Race 3: 2.52 Emerald Club Handicap

(Class 5, 5f 1y, Good, 12 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
T1Parisiac (IRE) (6)2903.50
T1Arnhem (IRE) (9)2903.75

Recent Form and Comments

  • Parisiac (IRE) (6yo): Recent form figures are 003214. He won three races this season, including a C&D victory earlier this month off a 3lb lower mark (soft). He was fourth at York (5f, good) recently and is 2lb lower now. He presses the leaders (P).
  • Arnhem (IRE) (9yo): Recent form figures are 080122. He has posted three sound runs over 5f since joining Jim Goldie. He won at Haydock in September and finished 0.75l second to Parisiac over C&D (soft) last time. He presses the leaders (P). He is now 3lb worse off with Parisiac.

Spotlight Verdict

The in-form PARISIAC is taken to confirm last week’s C&D form with Arnhem, despite meeting him on slightly worse terms. Jm Jingree is also expected to go well.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-4-15, 4yo+ 6-10-54.
  • Fate of Favourites: 3151521.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Iain Jardine 2-0-6 (33% strike rate for places/wins from runners), Jim Goldie 0-1-8 (running six horses here, 0-1-8 record).

Assessment of Top Two

  • Parisiac (IRE):
    • Strengths: Highly in form (three seasonal wins), course and distance winner, competitive despite recent run, runs 2lb lower than last outing.
    • Weaknesses: Meets his main rival (Arnhem) on slightly worse terms than their previous encounter.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable and rated co-top.
  • Arnhem (IRE):
    • Strengths: Excellent recent form, proven competitive over C&D (second to Parisiac).
    • Weaknesses: Meeting Parisiac 3lb worse off this time.
    • Suitability: Expected to run well again.

Race 4: 3.22 Catherine & Charlotte Roche Handicap

(Class 5, 1m 7f 217y/2m, Good, 9 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Trojan Sun (5)2625.00
2Minella Study (3)2417.00

Recent Form and Comments

  • Trojan Sun (5yo): Recent form figures are 145532. He has recorded all three career wins at Musselburgh, including one over 2m in July (good). He was a close second at Ayr recently and was not disgraced in a large field at York last Saturday. He is a likely player back down in grade. He leads (L) the race.
  • Minella Study (3yo): Recent form figures are 85-662. This low-mileage 3yo ended his time in Ireland with positive performances, including a win over 2m hurdles and a staying-on second in a 9.5f Flat maiden. He may do better still and is interesting on his handicap/stable debut. He presses the leaders (P).

Spotlight Verdict

The shortlist highlights the low-mileage 3yos SPOOKY WOOKY and Minella Study. Spooky Wooky ran well behind a subsequent scorer last time, while Minella Study, an ex-Irish runner, will be interesting if backed in the market. Trojan Sun is mentioned as one of the best older contenders.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 4yo+ 1-1-7 (Note: This is based on a limited form sample, and the top two include a 3yo).
  • Fate of Favourites, Trainer Records: Not explicitly detailed for this race in the source excerpts.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Trojan Sun:
    • Strengths: Proven Musselburgh specialist and course winner over 2m. Recently ran creditably in a tougher race.
    • Weaknesses: None apparent for this grade.
    • Suitability: Highly suitable given his strong course record.
  • Minella Study:
    • Strengths: Low-mileage 3yo with unexposed potential, good recent performances in Ireland suggested ability to stay 2m.
    • Weaknesses: Handicap and stable debut.
    • Suitability: Interesting prospect who could improve further.

Race 5: 3.52 British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap

(Class 3, 7f 15y, Good, 7 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Jannas Journey (IRE) (4)3144.00
2Bellarchi (IRE) (4)3013.50

Recent Form and Comments

  • Jannas Journey (IRE) (4yo): Recent form figures are 161136. She thrived between July and September, winning seven races in Scotland. Her last two efforts suggest the assessor may now have measured her, though she appears to remain in form. She is usually held up (H).
  • Bellarchi (IRE) (4yo): Recent form figures are 521024. This fairly useful filly has a career record of 8-38. Her most recent success was over C&D (good) in August. She remains favourably treated on peak form, having won off 3lb higher last term. She presses the leaders (P).

Spotlight Verdict

The selection is ROCK MELODY to complete a hat-trick of wins in this contest, as she is off a handy mark and receives weight all round. Lexington Belle is preferred as second choice ahead of the solid Bellarchi.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-4-18, 4yo+ 2-2-9.
  • Fate of Favourites: 144.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Jim Goldie 2-0-3, Grant Tuer 0-1-2.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Jannas Journey (IRE):
    • Strengths: Exceptional winning streak mid-season (7 wins), displays retained form.
    • Weaknesses: Has shot up the weights quickly, potentially assessed harshly.
    • Suitability: Highest rated, but handicapper challenge is present.
  • Bellarchi (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven C&D winner, running creditably recently, favourably weighted compared to previous winning marks, described as “solid”.
    • Weaknesses: None specified.
    • Suitability: A strong contender, highly suitable based on track form and current rating.

Race 6: 4.22 Melissa, Arabella And Oriana Hawthorne Handicap (Div I)

(Class 6, 7f 15y, Good, 8 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Monhammer (7)2183.75
2Giselles Izzy (IRE) (6)1988.00

Recent Form and Comments

  • Monhammer (7yo): Recent form figures are 696223. He has been running creditably on his last three starts, all over C&D. Although he hasn’t won since May 2024 (off 13lb higher), he is competitive off his current mark. He is usually held up (H).
  • Giselles Izzy (IRE) (6yo): Recent form figures are 223196. She has won over 7f at Ayr and 6f at Carlisle this season. She was not at her best in her last two runs over shorter distances, but the return to 7f should suit her. She is a held up runner (H).

Spotlight Verdict

The vote goes to MONHAMMER to win his first race since May 2024, as he has been placed recently against in-form horses. Giselles Izzy is expected to run well too.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 1-2-6, 4yo+ 1-2-13.
  • Fate of Favourites: 35.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Iain Jardine 1-0-3, Tim Easterby 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Monhammer:
    • Strengths: Strong recent C&D form (placed three times), dropping back down the weights (ran off 13lb higher previously).
    • Weaknesses: Long losing streak.
    • Suitability: High confidence from the spotlight that he can capitalize on this opportunity.
  • Giselles Izzy (IRE):
    • Strengths: Proven 7f winner this season, expected to improve returning to 7f.
    • Weaknesses: Disappointing efforts on last two shorter starts.
    • Suitability: Expected to run well.

Race 7: 4.55 Melissa, Arabella And Oriana Hawthorne Handicap (Div II)

(Class 6, 7f 15y, Good, 8 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Carlton And Co (6)2064.00
T2One Of Our Own (5)2037.50
T2Alpine Sierra (IRE) (7)20311.00
T2Without Delay (IRE) (6)1917.00

Note: Carlton And Co is rank 1. Ranks 2-4 are extremely close based on Total Rating, but using alphabetical order for the next highest rated (203): One Of Our Own, Alpine Sierra.

Recent Form and Comments

  • Carlton And Co (6yo): Recent form figures are 441364. He won at Redcar (6f, good) in July. He ran a solid race when fourth over C&D last time (soft), noting that the winner and runner-up have both won since, validating the form. He uses a visor (V).
  • One Of Our Own (5yo): Recent form figures are 368366. All her wins have been over 6f, most recently at Pontefract in June. She was behind rivals in this field when running over C&D last time. She presses the leaders (P).

Spotlight Verdict

The selection is ALPINE SIERRA who has dropped to a very good mark and is taken to beat Carlton And Co and On The Bubble.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups, Fate of Favourites, Trainer Records: Specific data for this race is not consolidated in the source excerpts.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Carlton And Co:
    • Strengths: Form validated by subsequent performance of rivals, running solid races recently.
    • Weaknesses: Primarily a 6f winner.
    • Suitability: An interesting contender, likely competitive based on strong recent race performance.
  • One Of Our Own:
    • Strengths: Recent 6f winner.
    • Weaknesses: Seems best suited to 6f and was beaten over 7f C&D by rivals here. Described as “others stronger”.
    • Suitability: Low suitability based on recent 7f form against these rivals.

Race 8: 5.30 Watch On Racing TV Handicap

(Class 6, 5f 1y, Good, 14 runners)

RankHorse (Age)TimeWise Master RatingOdds
1Beerwah (IRE) (3)2287.00
2Thunderstorm Katie (4)2259.00

Recent Form and Comments

  • Beerwah (IRE) (3yo): Recent form figures are 653561. He opened his account recently in a Beverley event (5f, soft) wearing blinkers (B) for the second time. He may have more to offer in the retained headgear. He presses the leaders (P).
  • Thunderstorm Katie (4yo): Recent form figures are 758534. She appears to remain in reasonable form. However, her record suggests she is ideally suited by 6f or a stiff 5f, meaning this particularly sharp scenario looks inadequate. She is usually held up (H).

Spotlight Verdict

A chance is taken on ZAPHEA, who is attractively handicapped and ran encouragingly on her penultimate start. Beerwah (second choice) may have more to offer in blinkers.

Race Statistics

  • Age Groups: 3yo 2-5-26, 4yo+ 4-7-45.
  • Fate of Favourites: 023522.
  • Trainer Records (W-Pl-R): Iain Jardine 2-0-3, Linda Perratt 1-0-6, Stella Barclay 1-0-3, Tracy Waggott 1-1-4, Jim Goldie 0-1-9, Tim Easterby 0-2-3.

Assessment of Top Two

  • Beerwah (IRE):
    • Strengths: Recent winner (1), improved significantly in blinkers, unexposed potential at this level.
    • Weaknesses: None specified, seems to be progressing well.
    • Suitability: High confidence that he can build on recent success with retained headgear.
  • Thunderstorm Katie:
    • Strengths: Remains in reasonable form.
    • Weaknesses: The sharp 5f track configuration is considered inadequate for her optimal performance (prefers 6f or stiff 5f).
    • Suitability: Low suitability based on track characteristics.

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