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Kempton Race Analysis (October 15, 2025)

Race 1: 16:40 Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Apprentice Handicap (6f, Class 5)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Hierarchy (IRE)	271.1771
2. Lipsink (IRE)	247.9276

Recent Form and Comments

Hierarchy (IRE) (6yo, runs Held Up – H):
This horse comes into the race in good form, having secured wins in 6f handicaps during two of his last four starts. He is considered more than capable at this level. His chances rely on a good pace and having luck in running. He last ran 18 days ago.

Lipsink (IRE) (8yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
Lipsink stays the 6f trip, having finished second in his most recent 6f start at Newmarket. His win in August was over 5f at Sandown. Cheekpieces are fitted again for this race. He will have other pace to contend with. He last ran 15 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict states that several prominent racers are in the field, making the in-form Hierarchy a strong contender, despite his recent wins being at Southwell. Harry’s Halo may improve with accessories fitted, but TYGER BAY is preferred. Tyger Bay is successful in his last two starts on the All Weather (AW) and will find this race more suitable than his previous run at Doncaster.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo+ 1-1-7.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Hierarchy is the likely favourite at 11-4 (2.25 numerical odds).
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J Osborne (Hierarchy’s trainer) has a 27% recent run-to-form percentage (23-246 overall). M Appleby (Lipsink’s trainer) has a recent run-to-form percentage of 40% (34-238 overall). D M Loughnane has a recent run-to-form percentage of 45% (32-296 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Hierarchy (IRE):
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Proven winner recently at this class and distance (6f handicap). Capable at this level.
  • Weaknesses: Requires luck in running and a strong pace. Faces contention from other prominent runners.
  • Suitability: Well suited to the trip and class; a major contender.
• Lipsink (IRE):
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Stays the 6f trip and performed well recently over it (second place). Cheekpieces return.
  • Weaknesses: Last win was over 5f. Faces other speed in the race.
  • Suitability: Suitable for AW sprinting, capable of placing.

Race 2: 17:10 Unibet Supports Safer Gambling EBF Maiden Stakes (1m, Class 5)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Go Rimbaud	281.1551
2. Mr Keble	247.4595

Recent Form and Comments

Go Rimbaud (2yo, runs Led – L):
He made a pleasing start to his career, finishing fourth in a 7f Leicester maiden last month. He is expected to benefit from the extra furlong (1m) and is a likely contender. He has yet to run a Topspeed figure. He last ran 23 days ago.

Mr Keble (2yo, runs Led – L):
His second run was an improvement on his debut, with both starts being over 7f. The step up to 1m should suit him, particularly given his dam won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks over 1m4f. The stable, however, may have stronger claims with stablemate Go Rimbaud. He last ran 27 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict highlights Talk Of New York as a newcomer of major interest. However, GO RIMBAUD made a promising start and is anticipated to take a forward step now upped in trip. Brighton View and the stablemate Mr Keble are rated the best of the remaining runners.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 2yo.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Go Rimbaud is the favourite at 2-1.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J & T Gosden (trainers of both top horses) have a 61% recent run-to-form percentage (65-326 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Go Rimbaud:
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Promising debut performance. Expected to improve significantly with the distance increase to 1m.
  • Weaknesses: Only one prior race experience.
  • Suitability: Highly suited to the mile trip; leading chance.
• Mr Keble:
  • Strengths: Second highest TimeWise rating. Improved on debut. Breeding suggests the 1m trip will be beneficial.
  • Weaknesses: Considered the stable’s second choice.
  • Suitability: Well suited to the distance; contender for minor honours.

Race 3: 17:40 Juddmonte/EBF Novice Fillies’ Restricted Novice Stakes (7f, Class 2)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Alarming	319.223
2. Sovereign Bright	270.8329

Note: Miss Pretty (284.255) was the second-highest rated horse but is a non-runner. Sovereign Bright is the highest rated remaining runner after Alarming.

Recent Form and Comments

Alarming (2yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
Alarming has leading form claims having run a promising second on debut at Salisbury, followed by a fourth-place finish in a Goodwood conditions event three weeks ago. She is now switched to the AW. She last ran 21 days ago.

Sovereign Bright (2yo, runs Led – L):
She ran well to be placed second at Doncaster (7f, good to firm) in June. However, she has failed to build on that performance in her three subsequent runs. She is considered vulnerable to less-exposed rivals today. She last ran 50 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict mentions that Nebbia, Marie Of Lorraine, and Atalanta Mist are open to improvement, and newcomers Quilt and Moonlit Surf (second choice) are noteworthy. However, ALARMING ran well behind useful opposition recently and is tipped to make a winning AW debut.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 2yo fillies.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Alarming is the favourite at 15-8.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): Ralph Beckett (Alarming’s trainer) is 1-2-4 in this race type. Charlie Johnston (Sovereign Bright’s trainer) has a 61% recent run-to-form percentage (28-214 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Alarming:
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Solid recent form against good opposition. Anticipated switch to AW is a positive.
  • Weaknesses: Must translate turf form to AW.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable; expected to win on form.
• Sovereign Bright:
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Proven capabilities at this trip (7f).
  • Weaknesses: Has not progressed since her June run. Vulnerable to unexposed fillies.
  • Suitability: Faces a tough assignment and needs to recapture earlier form.

Race 4: 18:10 Unibet More Extra Place Races Novice Stakes (1m4f, Class 5)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Military Cross (IRE)	316.379
2. Bahadur	241.178

Recent Form and Comments

Military Cross (IRE) (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
He has been runner-up in both his starts. He was beaten only a head on his debut over C&D last month. In his second start, he was beaten 8l in an Ascot novice where the winner, third, and fourth were previous winners. He should be hard to beat. He last ran 12 days ago.

Bahadur (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
Bahadur has finished third in three consecutive 1m4f novices on good to firm ground, having needed his debut run in April. He is making his AW debut after a 103-day absence. He shouldn’t be far away again.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict notes that newcomers Rehema and Pyleates have interesting pedigrees. However, MILITARY CROSS showed more than enough when runner-up in his first two starts (including over C&D) to suggest this race is within his reach. The 80-rated Bahadur is also expected to be competitive on his return/AW debut.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo+.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Military Cross is the hot favourite at 4-6.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J & T Gosden (Military Cross’s trainer) have a 61% recent run-to-form percentage (65-326 overall). S Woods (Bahadur’s trainer) has a 38% recent run-to-form percentage (9-107 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Military Cross (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Already placed over C&D and ran well in strong company subsequently. Highly favoured to win.
  • Weaknesses: Debut C&D form has not been strong since.
  • Suitability: Excellent chance, highly suited to distance and class.
• Bahadur:
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Consistent placing in recent novices (three thirds). Returns from a break, potentially fresh.
  • Weaknesses: Making AW debut.
  • Suitability: Expected to be closely involved and make the frame.

Race 5: 18:40 Try Unibet’s New Smartview Racecards Handicap (7f, Class 6)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Penelope Valentine	244.7543
2. Rye	232.8385

Recent Form and Comments

Penelope Valentine (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
She was a wide-margin winner at Wolverhampton over 7f last month on her first run in a visor. However, she ran disappointingly under a penalty at Newcastle two weeks ago. She carries a 4lb higher mark and now tries blinkers. She last ran 15 days ago.

Rye (3yo, runs Led – L):
Rye has been runner-up in four of her nine starts, including a 6f run at Wolverhampton 25 days ago. She is considered worth another crack at 7f and is seen as an each-way shout. She last ran 25 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict indicates Cooramook has run well recently but carries a 4lb penalty on form that hasn’t worked out. OTTAWA might be the answer, as his two placed efforts over 6f last month suggest he is ready for this return to 7f.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Ottawa is the favourite at 3-1.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J Owen (Penelope Valentine’s trainer) has a 52% recent run-to-form percentage (9-55 overall). A Carroll (Rye’s trainer) has a 44% recent run-to-form percentage (28-466 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Penelope Valentine:
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Proven winner over 7f recently. Change to blinkers may spark a revival.
  • Weaknesses: Disappointing recent run and faces a 4lb higher mark.
  • Suitability: Capable if bouncing back from her Newcastle run.
• Rye:
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Consistent performer (multiple placings). Worth trying again at 7f.
  • Weaknesses: Has shown a tendency to run second.
  • Suitability: Considered an each-way shout.

Race 6: 19:10 Try Unibet’s New Improved Acca Boosts Handicap (7f, Class 5)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Red Mirage (IRE)	254.4167
2. Strike	247.9066

Recent Form and Comments

Red Mirage (IRE) (7yo, runs Held Up – H):
A multiple winner throughout his career, including over C&D. He has performed well in four of his last five starts and is still capable of a prominent showing. He last ran 14 days ago.

Strike (7yo, runs Held Up – H):
Strike is comfortable on Polytrack and over 7f. He secured a good second at Windsor in August and encountered trouble in running during his last start at Bath. He should go well here. He last ran 15 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

Kitaro Kich is mentioned as possibly the best handicapped, but may be hindered by a tactical 7f race. Strike is expected to run well, but ENPASSANT (nap) is preferred due to the potential for him to dictate the run of the race and bounce back from a lesser recent effort.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 4yo+ 1-2-10.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Kitaro Kich is the favourite at 5-4.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J & S Quinn (Red Mirage’s trainer) have a 71% recent run-to-form percentage (0-1 overall). J Portman (Strike’s trainer) has a 50% recent run-to-form percentage (20-271 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Red Mirage (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. C&D winner with good consistency in recent runs.
  • Weaknesses: Form is exposed.
  • Suitability: Well suited to the conditions and capable of a prominent finish.
• Strike:
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Fine over 7f on Polytrack. Good run two starts ago and excused last effort due to interference.
  • Weaknesses: All four wins have been over 6f on fast turf.
  • Suitability: Expected to go well.

Race 7: 19:40 Set Your Limits With Unibet Handicap (2m, Class 5)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Fair Dinkum (IRE)	286.4918
2. Gemmari	251.297

Recent Form and Comments

Fair Dinkum (IRE) (5yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
He is in fine form, seeking a hat-trick after convincing wins over 1m6f on turf (Bath/Salisbury). He is carrying another 7lb rise but is a dual winner on Polytrack (1m5f/2m). He is much respected. He last ran 13 days ago.

Gemmari (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
His AW handicap record at 1m4f reads 211 from wins earlier this year at Wolverhampton and Southwell. However, he has been off for seven months (gelded in the interim) and is stepping up by half a mile in distance. His chances hinge on market confidence. He last ran 214 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict highlights that both Fair Dinkum (second choice) and Gemmari are chasing a hat-trick, but Fair Dinkum is preferred given Gemmari’s layoff and distance increase. The unexposed Warrior King is respected, but the selection is HEDONISTA, who is 12lb lower than when he won over C&D two years ago.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 0-1-1, 4yo+ 1-0-4.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Fair Dinkum is the favourite at 9-4.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): J Scott (Fair Dinkum’s trainer) has a 100% recent run-to-form percentage (0-4 overall). R Hannon (Gemmari’s trainer) has a 58% recent run-to-form percentage (61-593 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Fair Dinkum (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Current winning streak. Proven dual winner over 2m on Polytrack.
  • Weaknesses: Faces a further 7lb rise in weight.
  • Suitability: Much respected and highly suited to the conditions.
• Gemmari:
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Previous winning AW handicap form.
  • Weaknesses: Significant step up in trip (0.5 miles) and long layoff (seven months).
  • Suitability: Uncertain; needs market confidence due to fitness and stamina questions.

Race 8: 20:10 Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap (1m4f, Class 6)

Horse Name	TimeWise Master Rating
1. Blue Train (IRE)	259.7434
2. Gretna Dreams (IRE)	239.4273

Recent Form and Comments

Blue Train (IRE) (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
His AW handicap form reads 1431. He handled the C&D well last week, beating 13 rivals in a gutsy win. He carries a 6lb penalty but is still unexposed over middle distances and likely has more to offer. Cheekpieces return. He last ran 7 days ago.

Gretna Dreams (IRE) (3yo, runs Pressed Leaders – P):
A dual winner over 1m2f in August. He subsequently failed in his hat-trick attempt at Wolverhampton (9.5f, Tapeta). His stamina remains to be proved at this 1m4f distance. He last ran 23 days ago.

Spotlight Verdict

The Spotlight Verdict suggests that Hibernate and C&D winner Buxted Too are worth considering. However, BLUE TRAIN is taken to follow up his recent C&D win, despite the 6lb penalty, because he remains unexposed over this distance.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo+.
• Fate of Favourites: The general fate of favourites recorded is 1221162614. Blue Train is the favourite at 5-2.
• Trainer Records (W-PL-R): W Knight (Blue Train’s trainer) has a 73% recent run-to-form percentage (19-178 overall). S C Williams (Gretna Dreams’ trainer) has a 38% recent run-to-form percentage (1-16 overall).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Blue Train (IRE):
  • Strengths: Highest TimeWise rating. Recent C&D winner, proving stamina. Unexposed with potential for further improvement.
  • Weaknesses: Must carry a 6lb penalty.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable for the distance; expected to follow up.
• Gretna Dreams (IRE):
  • Strengths: High TimeWise rating. Previously successful in handicaps this year.
  • Weaknesses: Stamina for 1m4f is questionable. Disappointed in his last run on Tapeta.
  • Suitability: Questionable for this distance.