Executive Summary

The provided documentation offers a multi-faceted and deeply detailed framework for analyzing horse racing, integrating comprehensive race data, expert narrative commentary, quantitative ratings, and real-time betting market intelligence. The core methodology centers on identifying potential value and predicting performance by synthesizing diverse data streams.

Key themes emerging from the analysis include:

• Significance of Odds Movement: A central concept is that significant shifts in betting odds, both pre-race and in a horse’s previous outing, serve as a powerful indicator of market confidence or informed gambling activity. Tools are specifically designed to flag horses that have been heavily backed (“movers” or “gambled on”) or have seen waning support (“drifters”).

• Integrated Data Analysis: The system combines traditional form guides (Raceform), performance ratings (Topspeed, Racing Post Rating), and proprietary quantitative models (“Timewise ratings”) to create a holistic view of each contender. Data points cover horse performance across various conditions, trainer and jockey form, and pedigree analysis.

• Expert Commentary and Selections: Narrative summaries (“Spotlight”) provide qualitative analysis, interpreting the raw data to offer insights into a horse’s condition, suitability for the race, and potential trajectory. These culminate in specific selections, including a “nap” which signifies the day’s best bet.

• Real-Time Information Flow: The dynamic nature of horse racing is captured through live updates, including non-runner notifications and evolving market odds, which can significantly impact the analysis of a race. A critical example is the horse Western Fold, which was highlighted as a top contender but was later declared a non-runner, demonstrating the necessity of up-to-the-minute information.

The Role of Betting Markets in Analysis

The documentation places a strong emphasis on using betting market dynamics as a primary analytical tool. Odds movement is treated as a quantifiable signal reflecting the collective opinion and, potentially, the informed wagers of the racing public.

Identifying Significant Odds Movement

A key feature is a shortcut tool designed to identify horses that experienced “significant odds movement” in their last race. This is defined as a shift of five or more “points” between the opening price (approximately 10 minutes before the race) and the Official Starting Price (SP). A “point” refers to a step in traditional betting odds (e.g., the move from 2/1 to 11/8 constitutes five points: 2/1, 15/8, 7/4, 13/8, 6/4, 11/8).

Examples of Horses Flagged for Last-Race Odds Movement:

Horse	Upcoming Odds	Last Race Opening Price (LR O)	Last Race SP (LR SP)	Last Race Position
Little Pi (FR)	40/1	16/1	10/1	7th
Greedy Smith (IRE)	28/1	9/1	4/1	4th
Hey Buddy (IRE)	14/1	10/11	4/7	2nd
Western Fold (IRE)	N/A	6/4	5/6	1st
Easter Icon	8/1	5/1	3/1	1st
Hierarchy (IRE)	100/30	8/1	5/1	1st

Today’s Market Movers and Drifters

The system also tracks real-time odds changes on the day of the race, comparing early prices to current prices to identify “Movers” (those being backed in) and “Drifters” (those whose odds are lengthening). This provides an immediate snapshot of market sentiment.

Notable Market Movers (Odds Shortening)	Odds 1	Odds 2	Movement
Heart Wood (FR) (Punchestown 4.05)	6/4	8/15	14 points
Talk Of New York (Kempton 5.10)	6/5	1/2	12 points
Mrs Trump (IRE) (Nottingham 5.15)	11/1	4/1	12 points
Blue Train (IRE) (Kempton 8.10)	13/8	8/11	11 points
Tyger Bay (Kempton 4.40)	7/1	7/2	7 points

Notable Market Drifters (Odds Lengthening)	Odds 1	Odds 2	Movement
Fair Dinkum (IRE) (Kempton 7.40)	15/8	8/1	-18 points
Atalanta Mist (Kempton 5.40)	4/1	14/1	-14 points
Iceni Queen (Nottingham 2.05)	2/1	9/2	-10 points
Jennifer Wren (IRE) (Kempton 6.40)	9/1	25/1	-10 points

Analytical Frameworks and Data Sources

A combination of qualitative and quantitative data sources is used to build a comprehensive profile of each race.

Race Card Data

The race cards are factually dense, providing detailed information for each horse, including:

• Form: Recent finishing positions.

• Ratings: Official Rating (OR), Racing Post Rating (RPR), and Topspeed figures. RPRs are provided for various conditions (course, recent form, ground, distance).

• Trainer & Jockey Form: A percentage indicates the trainer’s runners that have run to form in the last 14 days.

• Running Style: Abbreviations indicate a horse’s typical race position: H (held up), L (led), P (pressed leaders).

Spotlight Analysis

The Spotlight documents provide narrative context and expert opinion for each race. This includes:

• Horse-by-Horse Summaries: A brief analysis of each runner’s recent form, suitability for the race conditions, and potential.

• Spotlight Verdict: A concluding summary that offers a final analysis and clear selections for the race, often identifying a “first choice,” “second choice,” and other horses to consider.

• Best Bet (Nap): The verdict for one race per meeting may be designated as a “(nap),” indicating it is considered the day’s strongest selection. For example, in the Kempton 7:10 race, Enpassant is selected as the nap.

Timewise Ratings

A proprietary quantitative model provides numerical ratings for various factors, culminating in a “total” score for each horse. The components include:

• leveller

• speed

• jockeyrating

• trainerrating

• stallionrating

• today (a factor specific to the day’s race)

For example, in the Kempton 4:40 race, Hierarchy has a “total” rating of 271.1771.

Race Meeting Analysis: 15 October 2025

Analysis and key selections are provided for five race meetings.

Case Study: Kempton Park

The 4:40 race, the Get Daily Price Boosts At Unibet Apprentice Handicap, serves as an excellent example of the integrated analysis.

• Contenders of Interest: Hierarchy and Tyger Bay.

• Spotlight Verdict: The expert analysis prefers TYGER BAY, noting, “Successful in his last two starts on AW, he will find this more suitable than his race at Doncaster last month.” Hierarchy is acknowledged as being “in good form” but “reliant on luck and a good pace.”

• Last Race Analysis: Hierarchy was flagged by the system for having been significantly gambled on in its last race, where its odds shortened from 8/1 to 5/1 before winning.

• Market Sentiment: On the day of the race, Tyger Bay is a notable market mover, with its odds shortening from 7/1 to 7/2.

• Quantitative Ratings: The Timewise system gives Hierarchy the highest “total” rating in the race at 271.1771.

• Non-Runner: The race was reduced to 11 runners after Dashing Harry was declared a non-runner.

Other Kempton Selections:

• 5:40 Verdict: ALARMING. Notes that Nebbia, Marie Of Lorraine, and Atalanta Mist are open to improvement.

• 7:10 Verdict (Nap): ENPASSANT. The analysis suggests this horse “could enjoy a tactical advantage.” Kitaro Kich is noted as potentially the “best handicapped horse in the field,” but the race’s likely tactical nature might not suit.

Nottingham

• 1:35 Verdict: CANOPUS. Described as “progressive” and a “major player.” Return To Unit is noted as having “more to offer.”

• 2:40 Verdict (Nap): PARISIAN SCHOLAR. The horse “bolted up at Newcastle last week” and is taken to defy a 6lb penalty. Aleen is feared most.

• 3:14 Verdict: GREEN TRIANGLE. The verdict suggests the return of blinkers could be a “big positive.” Unexposed handicap newcomer Gamrai is also highlighted.

• 4:20 Verdict: THANK YOU BLUE. Judged to be on a “good mark for this first attempt at 3m.”

• Market Movement: Mrs Trump (5.15) was a significant market mover (11/1 into 4/1).

Wetherby

• 3:20 Verdict (Nap): CAELAN. Won in a first-time hood last time, and the form has been boosted by the runner-up. The verdict states this horse “could have a lot more to offer in handicap hurdles.”

• 4:20 Verdict: THANK YOU BLUE. Analysis suggests the horse “seemed to have turned a corner” in its last race.

• Last Race Analysis: Easter Icon (4:20) was flagged for significant odds movement in its last race (5/1 into 3/1), which it won.

Punchestown

• 1:55 Verdict: GAMEBALL. Described as a “supremely comfortable winner of a Ballinrobe bumper,” with his former trainer feeling he was “one of his best bumper horses.” Vitorio Piel is seen as the most likely challenger.

• 3:35 Verdict: KING OF KINGSFIELD. The analysis states this “looks like a good opportunity” for the horse, who faces rivals of a lower caliber than in his last race.

• 4:05 Verdict: WESTERN FOLD. The verdict hinges on this horse’s race fitness, suggesting it “made an effective transition to Graded company at Gowran.”

• Critical Update: Western Fold was subsequently declared a non-runner, invalidating the Spotlight verdict and fundamentally altering the complexion of the 4:05 race. Another key contender, Heart Wood, was a significant market mover from 6/4 into 8/15.

Worcester

• 3:58 Verdict: BIG GINGE. Was not disgraced in the valuable Imperial Cup at Sandown and is now “back in much calmer waters.” Milan Tino is noted as very useful on his juvenile form but is tricky to assess on his first run for a new stable.

• 4:28 Verdict: AXEL BLEUE. A winner of two bumpers, this horse “made a most encouraging start to his hurdles career when second at Uttoxeter” and is expected to go on to better things.