Race Details

• Race: 3.42 JJ Group Contracting Handicap Hurdle (Class 5)
• Course: Carlisle
• Distance: 2 miles 3 furlongs 218 yards
• Prize Money: £7,000 (£3,696 to the winner)
• Going: Good
• Runners: 16

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Runner-by-Runner Analysis

This is a large, competitive field for the grade. Here’s a look at each of the declared runners:

• Born In The West: The top-weight and a model of consistency, having finished in the top three in his last five starts. He won well at Catterick over this trip in March and wasn’t disgraced when stepping up to 3 miles last time. Represents an in-form stable and is a key player, though the weight is a burden.
• Kuzco: Got off the mark over hurdles at the 6th attempt with a good win at Bangor in March. He followed that with a respectable fourth but now returns from a 187-day absence, which is a slight concern.
• Speed Davis: Hails from the powerful Donald McCain yard but his recent form has been very poor. He was pulled up on his last hurdle start and showed little in a brief spell over fences. Hard to recommend.
• Speiriuil: A consistent mare who rarely runs a bad race. She was a good third at Bangor in March and wasn’t beaten far when fourth at Chepstow in April. She should give her running but might be vulnerable to a better-handicapped rival.
• Shan’t Wait: Lightly raced but has been well beaten in both his handicap starts. He needs to show significant improvement after a 203-day break.
• Livano Bello: A very interesting contender. This four-year-old ran a promising third on his handicap debut in April and now has the services of champion jockey Brian Hughes. As a lightly raced type, he is open to plenty of improvement.
• Blazing Court: His form has tailed off badly, being beaten by a long way in his last three starts over both hurdles and fences. Easily overlooked.
• Dalileo: A 10-year-old veteran who is inconsistent but ran respectably to finish fifth at Kelso just 11 days ago. He has placed at this course before but may find younger legs too much for him.
• Looking Splendid: Comes here in terrific form having won at Kelso 11 days ago. According to the race notes, he escapes a penalty for that success, meaning he is running off the same mark and is effectively 7lb “well-in”. With his trainer in form, he looks the one to beat.
• Coral Blue: Another 10-year-old who was second at Musselburgh in February but his form has dipped since. His record at Carlisle is poor (0 places from 4 starts).
• Rickety Gate: A two-time winner at this course, including over a similar trip in April off a 2lb lower mark. However, his recent form has been very poor, and he needs a return to this venue to spark a major revival.
• Nanny Daisy: Has shown very little ability in five career starts and looks completely out of her depth.
• Top Flight Century: A reliable gelding who has finished in the money on his last three starts. He is very consistent and tries hard, making him a solid each-way prospect.
• Earlofbrackenstown: Has been pulled up on his last two starts in Britain and has shown nothing to suggest he can be competitive.
• Darkest Day: Ran his best race for some time when fourth behind Looking Splendid at Kelso last time. He is 12lb better off at the weights with that rival today, but needs to prove he can back that run up.
• Longstone Cowboy: Showed vastly improved form when a close second at Hexham just 13 days ago. That was a big step forward and suggests he is in great heart. An interesting outsider.

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Verdict

A tricky handicap where recent form is key. Looking Splendid arrives with an outstanding chance.

1st: Looking Splendid He won well at Kelso just 11 days ago and, crucially, escapes a penalty for that victory. This means he is technically 7lb well-in at the weights, a huge advantage in a competitive handicap. He is the clear and obvious selection.

2nd: Livano Bello This unexposed four-year-old shaped with real promise on his handicap debut. The booking of Brian Hughes is a massive signal of intent from his connections, and he could be the biggest danger to the selection.

3rd: Born In The West The classiest horse in the race, he is ultra-consistent and will almost certainly run his race. The big weight is the only negative, but he should be good enough to hit the frame for his in-form stable.

4th: Top Flight Century The model of consistency at this level. While he may find a couple too good for him again, he is a reliable type who tries his heart out and is a solid pick to fill the places.