The late withdrawal of Western Fold reshapes this Grade 3 into a clear two-horse contest between Heart Wood and Croke Park, with the rest of the field making up the numbers.

Croke Park brings solid credentials as a dual Grade 1-winning novice chaser. He stays three miles well and tends to dominate from the front. With no obvious pace rival now, Jack Kennedy should be able to dictate early fractions. The question is whether he can give away 12lb to a proven Grade 1 performer on good ground.

Heart Wood was last seen finishing second to Fact To File in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, posting an RPR of 180. That form sits well above this level. He’s a classy, uncomplicated horse who travels strongly and handles a range of ground conditions. His main test is fitness—this will be his first start since April—but Henry de Bromhead’s horses are generally forward enough after a break.

Monbeg Park and Itsalladream look to be chasing place money, while Pebble Bleu and Fr Gilligansvoyge are out of their depth on ratings.

On balance, Heart Wood is the one to beat. The weight concession from Croke Park is significant, and if Heart Wood runs anywhere near his spring form, he should pick them off late. Croke Park will make a race of it from the front, but this setup favours the class horse receiving weight.

Verdict:

1. Heart Wood – class edge and well in at the weights
2. Croke Park – front-runner, likely to dictate early
3. Monbeg Park – best of the rest