Race Overview: A fascinating rated novice hurdle where the key question is stamina. The 2m 4f trip on Good ground will test several leading contenders who have done their winning over shorter distances. The race appears to revolve around the two horses who fought out the finish of a similar event at Killarney, but a trip specialist could spoil the party.

The Main Contenders

The market and form book point squarely towards Nelson Muntz and Tassarolo, who finished third and second respectively in the same race 11 days ago.

Tassarolo arrives with arguably the strongest single piece of recent form, having achieved a career-best RPR of 123 at Killarney. He is lightly-raced, progressive, and his stats show a clear aptitude for right-handed tracks (1 win, 1 place from 3 starts). He has also placed on his only attempt on ‘Good’ ground. The significant unknown is the new trip, and while he shapes as if he’ll stay, it’s not guaranteed.

However, conditions today are perfect for Nelson Muntz to reverse that form. The key piece of information is the official note that he “tended to jump right” at left-handed Killarney. His statistical profile powerfully supports this: he has an excellent record of 1 win and 2 places from 6 starts on right-handed tracks like Thurles. With that jumping preference now a major asset rather than a hindrance, and with his top weight offset by jockey Peter Smithers’ valuable 7lb claim, he has a compelling case. The fact his trainer’s yard is in blistering form (67% rtf%) only adds to his appeal, although he does need to prove his stamina and overcome a previous unplaced effort at this course.

Best of the Rest

The most dangerous challenger to the top two is Lord Ffrench. His profile contains the most crucial stat for this race: he is the only runner in the field with a win over today’s 2m 4f distance, which he achieved on Good ground. He must bounce back from a poor run in a handicap last time, but this is an easier test. Coming from the red-hot S Curling stable (60% rtf%), he is the proven stayer and could easily outrun his odds if the favourites fail to see out the trip.

Tatateo is the talented wildcard. He possesses the highest lifetime RPR in the field (127) and has an excellent record on Good ground (1 win, 2 places from 4 starts). However, he needs to be taken on trust after a dismal, error-strewn run at Listowel, and he also has his stamina to prove.

Outsiders

The remaining runners look up against it. Front Door Famous is consistent but remains a maiden after 5 starts, while Lambay Island faces a tough task after a 213-day absence and on ground and a trip he is unproven on. Ask The Bookie is statistically hard to fancy, still being a maiden after 16 jumps starts.

Final Verdict & Selection Rationale

While Tassarolo holds the stronger recent form figure, the specific conditions of today’s race make a compelling case for NELSON MUNTZ to reverse the placings. The switch to a right-handed track is a significant positive that should see his jumping become a weapon. With his stable in flying form and a 7lb claimer on board, he is equipped to handle the step up in trip and land the spoils.

1. Nelson Muntz 2. Tassarolo 3. Lord Ffrench