Race Overview: This is a highly competitive, large-field 7-furlong handicap. With 25 runners analysed, luck in running and track position will be significant factors. The key variables appear to be the YIELDING ground, which will suit some runners far more than others, and the remarkable recent form of several trainers, with five stables boasting a 100% recent strike rate (RFT%). The draw could also play a part; a low draw is often seen as a slight advantage over this course and distance.

Pace Analysis: In a field of this size, a strong and honest gallop is almost guaranteed. Several runners have shown a tendency to race prominently, which should ensure there is no hiding place. This will likely suit horses who can travel comfortably off the pace and see out the trip strongly, particularly with the ground having some give in it. Horses noted for “finishing strongly” or being “eyecatchers” late on, such as Loingseoir and Zipster, may find the race run to suit.

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Key Contenders

This race features a blend of in-form handicappers, course specialists, and well-treated veterans. The following runners make the most appeal:

• Mogwli (Draw 5): The case for this 8-year-old is compelling. He arrives in peak condition, with a win and a close second on his last two starts. Crucially, he thrives on rain-softened ground, and his career record in September/October is excellent (4 wins). Trainer W McCreery is in fine form (45% RFT), and from a good draw in stall 5, he looks primed for a huge run off a competitive mark.
• Tofino (Draw 20): A Curragh winner over a mile in August, she proved her effectiveness on soft ground with an excellent second-place finish last time out. That run confirmed she is still in top form despite an 8lb rise for her win. Trained by the shrewd Gavin Cromwell (50% RFT), she is a major player, though the draw in 20 is not ideal.
• Loingseoir (Draw 17): This durable 9-year-old is a dual course winner who has been hinting that his turn is near. He finished strongly for third over a mile on soft ground last time and was a good seventh over this course and distance before that. His peak Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 97 shows he has the class, he handles the conditions, and he looks poised to strike.
• Yaxchilan (Draw 10): A potential handicap blot. His peak RPR of 89 makes his current mark of just 55 look very appealing. He proved he was in form with a good third over 7f on soft ground recently, suggesting he is ready to capitalise on his lenient rating. He rates as a significant threat from the bottom of the weights.
• Clever And Classy (Draw 4): A winner on yielding ground in July, she bounced right back to form with a strong second on soft ground at Cork in September. If you can forgive her subsequent run, that Cork performance puts her right in the mix. She is drawn well and has proven she can be competitive under these conditions.

Horses with Questions to Answer

• Verhoyen (Draw 7): A six-time course winner with a massive peak RPR of 103. He is a grand veteran who cannot be dismissed lightly at his favourite track. However, his recent form is inconsistent, and there’s a suggestion he may now find a strongly-run 7f stretching his stamina.
• Dagoda (Draw 16): Another course specialist who saves her best for this track. While her recent form figures are uninspiring, she was noted as an eyecatcher here previously. A return to the Curragh could spark a revival.
• Prime Sign (Draw 2): Comes from a trainer with a 100% recent strike rate, which is a major positive. However, her win came over 6f on good ground, and both the step up in trip and the softer surface pose legitimate questions.
• Skippinandajumpin (Draw 26): Ran a cracker on her handicap debut to be second over a mile on soft ground. She is clearly an improver from a top stable, but the drop back to 7f may not be ideal, and the draw in 26 is a major negative.

Conclusion & Verdict

In a wide-open contest, the combination of current form, ground suitability, and seasonal preference points strongly towards MOGWLI. He is thriving at present and gets his ideal conditions. Tofino looks the most likely danger, having proven her well-being with a fine recent effort in similar conditions. The old-timer Loingseoir has been running well enough to suggest he can hit the frame at a decent price, while Yaxchilan is dangerously well-handicapped and could run a huge race if building on his last effort.

Selections:

1. Mogwli
2. Tofino
3. Loingseoir
4. Yaxchilan