Comparative Analysis: Key Contenders for the Ascot 4.40 Balmoral Handicap

1.0 Introduction to the Analysis

The Balmoral Handicap stands as a cornerstone of the British flat racing calendar, a highly prestigious Class 2 contest held at the iconic Ascot racecourse. With a total race value of £200,000, including a substantial £103,080 prize for the winner, it consistently attracts a large and competitive field of high-calibre handicappers aged three years and older. The challenge of navigating a field of 23 declared runners over Ascot’s straight mile makes it a formidable puzzle for owners, trainers, and racing professionals alike.

The objective of this report is to provide an objective, data-driven comparative assessment of the leading contenders for this year’s renewal. By dissecting individual performance profiles and placing them in direct comparison, this analysis aims to illuminate the key strengths, potential vulnerabilities, and strategic variables at play for each principal runner.

The report is structured to first deliver in-depth individual profiles of the selected contenders. This is followed by a systematic comparative analysis across four critical performance pillars: Recent Form, Course & Conditions Suitability, Handicap Assessment, and Trainer Insights. This methodical approach is designed to distill complex form data into clear, actionable intelligence, thereby informing strategic decision-making. We begin with a detailed examination of the key contenders selected for this analysis.

2.0 In-Depth Profiles of Key Contenders

The contenders selected for this deep-dive analysis have been identified through a multi-faceted methodology. The selection is based on a combination of high Official Ratings (OR), which denote proven class; demonstrated form over the Ascot course and one-mile distance; strong recent performances indicating current well-being; and notable expert analysis or trainer commentary. This process isolates the runners who, on paper, possess the strongest credentials to contend in this elite handicap.

2.1 Holloway Boy

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	110
Weight	9-12
Age	5
Trainer	K R Burke
Jockey	Clifford Lee
Total Flat Race Earnings	£398,917

Holloway Boy is a high-class performer with significant earnings, highlighted by a string of placed efforts in valuable handicaps and Group company. While his only victory since his 2022 Royal Ascot debut came in a Group 3 at Haydock, his record is one of remarkable consistency at a high level. A recent international campaign in Meydan saw him place in both Group 1 and Group 2 company, confirming he retains all of his ability, and analyst notes from his excellent second in a Group 2 suggest “a stronger gallop would have suited,” a highly relevant factor for this big-field handicap. He possesses the highest official rating in this field and must carry top weight.

• Ascot Course Record: He has a record of one win from four starts (1-0-4) at the course, with that victory coming in the Listed Chesham Stakes as a two-year-old.

• 1-Mile Distance Record: Over the one-mile trip, he has registered one win and five places from twelve attempts (1-5-12), demonstrating a clear aptitude for the distance.

• Sound Surface Record: He has a comprehensive record on faster ground, with a combined two wins and six places from thirteen runs (2-6-13) on ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’ surfaces.

2.2 Native Warrior

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	109
Weight	9-11
Age	4
Trainer	K R Burke
Jockey	James Doyle
Total Flat Race Earnings	£205,042

Native Warrior enters this contest in scintillating form, having won his last two races in impressive style at Ascot over seven furlongs. A progressive four-year-old, he has proven himself particularly well-suited to the demands of large-field handicaps, with expert analysis noting that he “looks a natural for the Balmoral”. His form figures on Ascot’s straight course are an outstanding 3rd, 1st, and 1st from just three runs, and the application of a visor appears to have been a catalyst for his marked improvement this season.

• Ascot Course Record: He is a course specialist with an exceptional record of two wins and one place from three starts (2-1-3).

• 1-Mile Distance Record: He has one win and two places from six starts (1-2-6) over a mile, including a third-place finish in the 2024 Britannia Handicap at this course.

• Sound Surface Record: He is proven effective on faster ground, with one win and four places from seven starts (1-4-7) on ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’ going.

2.3 Godwinson

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	103
Weight	9-5
Age	5
Trainer	William Haggas
Jockey	Cieren Fallon
Total Flat Race Earnings	£147,063

Godwinson is a capable handicapper who has demonstrated a liking for big-field contests, notably winning the prestigious Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster earlier in the season. His performance profile suggests he is at his most effective when given a strong pace to aim at, where he can be delivered late. Indeed, analyst notes from his Lincoln victory highlighted that he “got plenty of cover… and turned in his best effort under suitable conditions, having had to wait for a run.” While his most recent efforts have been below par, his best form has come when fresh.

• Ascot Course Record: He has only run at the course once previously, finishing unplaced (0-0-1).

• 1-Mile Distance Record: The one-mile trip is clearly his optimum, having secured three wins and two places from nine attempts (3-2-9).

• Sound Surface Record: He has very limited experience on faster ground, with one placed effort from two starts (0-1-2) across ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’ surfaces.

2.4 Cerulean Bay

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	101
Weight	9-3
Age	4
Trainer	David O’Meara
Jockey	Daniel Tudhope
Total Flat Race Earnings	£134,502

Cerulean Bay is a model of progression, arriving here having won his last two starts at Goodwood in decisive fashion. This four-year-old has been in excellent form, rising through the handicap ranks this season. His racing style is versatile, and he has shown the ability to perform well at multiple tracks, including a narrow second to Ebt’s Guard over this course and distance in August. He has shown he is handicapped to remain competitive at this level.

• Ascot Course Record: He has yet to win at Ascot but has been placed twice in four starts (0-2-4).

• 1-Mile Distance Record: He has a strong record over this distance, with two wins and four places from ten runs (2-4-10).

• Sound Surface Record: He has an excellent and extensive record on faster ground, boasting a combined four wins and three places from seventeen starts (4-3-17) on ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’.

2.5 Ebt’s Guard

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	102
Weight	9-4
Age	4
Trainer	William Muir & Chris Grassick
Jockey	Lewis Edmunds
Total Flat Race Earnings	£189,757

Ebt’s Guard is a tough and remarkably consistent performer who has established himself as a premier miler in competitive handicaps. A dual course-and-distance winner, he possesses a commendable record at Ascot and has frequently performed with credit in valuable races, including a victory in the Newbury Spring Cup and a strong second in the Golden Mile at Goodwood. His versatility with regard to ground conditions is a significant asset.

• Ascot Course Record: He has a superb record at the track, with two wins and two places from six starts (2-2-6).

• 1-Mile Distance Record: The mile is his specialist distance, where he has achieved four wins and eight places from sixteen attempts (4-8-16).

• Sound Surface Record: He is highly experienced and successful on sound surfaces, with a combined record of three wins and three places from fourteen starts (3-3-14) on ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’ ground.

2.6 Shout

Metric	Value
Official Rating (OR)	100
Weight	8-13
Age	3
Trainer	Simon & Ed Crisford
Jockey	Oisin Murphy
Total Flat Race Earnings	£54,753

As one of the three-year-olds in the field, Shout receives a weight-for-age allowance and represents a profile of unexposed potential. He produced a career-best performance on his last outing to win a valuable Class 2 handicap over this course and distance on soft ground, showing a decisive turn of foot. That authoritative victory suggested he is a rapidly improving type who has now proven his effectiveness for the unique demands of an Ascot mile.

• Ascot Course Record: He has one win and one placed effort from three starts (1-1-3) at the track.

• 1-Mile Distance Record: His record over the distance is one win from two starts (1-0-2), with that victory coming at this course.

• Sound Surface Record: He has a solid record on faster ground with two wins and three places from seven runs (2-3-7) on ‘Good’ and ‘Good to Firm’ surfaces.

These individual profiles highlight the distinct credentials each horse brings, setting the stage for a direct comparison of their key performance metrics.

3.0 Direct Comparative Analysis

This section distills the extensive performance data into a direct, side-by-side comparison of the contenders. By examining the field across four critical pillars—Recent Form, Course & Conditions Suitability, Handicap Assessment, and Trainer Insights—we can identify key differentiators that are likely to influence the race outcome.

3.1 Analysis of Recent Form

The following table compares each contender’s performance in their most recent outings, providing a snapshot of their current well-being and form trajectory.

Contender	Date of Last Race	Finishing Position	Last Race RPR
Holloway Boy	05 Apr	11th	105
Native Warrior	04 Oct	1st	118
Godwinson	30 Aug	14th	106
Cerulean Bay	12 Oct	1st	119
Ebt’s Guard	27 Sep	8th	106
Shout	05 Sep	1st	116

The data reveals sharply contrasting form lines. Three contenders are arriving at the absolute peak of their powers, having won their last starts with career-best Racing Post Ratings: Cerulean Bay (119), Native Warrior (118), and Shout (116). These figures indicate horses who are not only in winning form but are also on a steep upward curve. In contrast, Holloway Boy, Godwinson, and Ebt’s Guard all finished unplaced in their most recent starts, recording RPRs well below those of the last-start winners. While Holloway Boy’s run was in elite Group 1 company abroad, the recent performance data for Cerulean Bay, Native Warrior, and Shout is unequivocally more compelling.

3.2 Assessment of Course, Distance, and Ground Suitability

Success in the Balmoral Handicap often hinges on a proven affinity for Ascot’s straight mile and prevailing ground conditions. This table compares each contender’s lifetime record across these specific variables.

Contender	Ascot Record (W-P-R)	1-Mile Distance Record (W-P-R)	Sound Surface Record (W-P-R)
Holloway Boy	1-0-4	1-5-12	2-6-13
Native Warrior	2-1-3	1-2-6	1-4-7
Godwinson	0-0-1	3-2-9	0-1-2
Cerulean Bay	0-2-4	2-4-10	4-3-17
Ebt’s Guard	2-2-6	4-8-16	3-3-14
Shout	1-1-3	1-0-2	2-3-7

The statistics identify two clear course specialists. Ebt’s Guard (2 wins, 2 places from 6 runs) and Native Warrior (2 wins, 1 place from 3 runs) possess outstanding records at Ascot. Furthermore, Ebt’s Guard is a prolific winner and placed horse over the one-mile distance. The analysis of ground suitability is also revealing; Cerulean Bay (4 wins from 17 runs) and Ebt’s Guard (3 wins from 14 runs) possess deep and successful profiles on sound surfaces, making them particularly well-suited to the likely conditions. While Holloway Boy and Shout are also course-and-distance winners, the combined track and surface records of Ebt’s Guard, Native Warrior, and Cerulean Bay are superior.

3.3 Handicap and Rating Assessment

This analysis compares each horse’s current Official Rating (OR) with their best-ever performance, as measured by the Racing Post Rating (RPR), to assess which may hold a potential advantage over the handicapper.

Contender	Current Official Rating (OR)	Best Career RPR (Adjusted)
Holloway Boy	110	116
Native Warrior	109	118
Godwinson	103	121
Cerulean Bay	101	119
Ebt’s Guard	102	117
Shout	100	116

The relationship between the current OR and peak RPR suggests several horses may be advantageously handicapped. Cerulean Bay stands out, having achieved an RPR of 119—a remarkable 18 pounds above his current official mark. Godwinson has performed a full 18 pounds clear of his rating, suggesting he is extremely dangerous if recapturing his best. Likewise, Ebt’s Guard (15 pounds above his mark) and the three-year-old Shout (16 pounds above his) have demonstrated the ability to perform at a level significantly higher than their current handicap rating suggests. Native Warrior also possesses a 9-pound differential. Holloway Boy, while high-class, appears to be racing closer to his established performance ceiling based on this metric.

3.4 Evaluation of Trainer Insights and Quoted Intent

Public comments and expert analysis can provide invaluable context regarding a horse’s preparation, target races, and well-being.

• Holloway Boy: Trainer Karl Burke explicitly identified the Balmoral as a “perfect race for him” after a good run at York, highlighting this event as a long-term target.

• Native Warrior: Expert analysis in the NOTE-BOOK highlights that he “looks a natural for the Balmoral” and that his recent Ascot wins confirm his suitability for “big-field handicaps” on a straight track.

• Godwinson: Following a win, jockey Tom Marquand noted that competitive races “suit him, where it is busy and he can sit in,” suggesting the race’s structure should be to his liking.

• Ebt’s Guard: After his Newbury Spring Cup win, it was noted that “The Royal Hunt Cup is reportedly the target,” indicating a campaign focused on major Ascot handicaps.

• Shout: Owner Gail Brown noted after his course-and-distance win that he is a “nice progressive three-year-old” who will “make up into a lovely four-year-old,” confirming the stable’s high opinion of his potential.

These insights confirm that the Balmoral Handicap has been a specific, long-range target for several of the key contenders, particularly Holloway Boy and Native Warrior.

4.0 Analytical Synthesis and Conclusion

This comprehensive analysis reveals a compelling and multifaceted contest, with several contenders bringing distinct and powerful credentials to the race. A synthesis of the key findings provides a balanced overview of the principal runners’ prospects.

Holloway Boy enters with the highest class rating (OR 110) and has been specifically targeted for this race, but he must carry top weight and his recent form is less inspiring than some rivals. Native Warrior presents a formidable profile, combining scintillating recent form with a proven and potent affinity for the Ascot straight mile. Godwinson is a proven big-field handicap winner who is exceptionally well-treated on his peak performance rating, though his lack of course experience is a question mark. Cerulean Bay is in the form of his life, boasts a strong record on sound surfaces, and appears exceptionally well-handicapped. Ebt’s Guard combines consistency with a superb course-and-distance record, making him a reliable contender with a clear ratings advantage. Finally, the progressive three-year-old Shout is a last-start course-and-distance winner who is also significantly well-in on peak ratings and could still be improving.

Ultimately, while no single contender is without questions to answer, this report provides a comprehensive, data-grounded foundation for informed strategic assessment. The confluence of recent form, course suitability, and handicap advantage points towards a select group of runners who hold the strongest claims on paper.