Limerick: This analysis reviews the Limerick races scheduled for October 25th in chronological order, detailing the TimeWise Master Top Two rated selections, their recent form, the Spotlight Verdict, Race Statistics, and an assessment of their chances.
Aruntothequeen (6yo): This mare has been consistent in bumpers and won a Gowran Listed event just over a year ago, beating some smart rivals. She ran a shade disappointingly when finishing third in a 2m4f Cork maiden hurdle last November. She did not reappear until the Listowel festival last month where she again failed to live up to her bumper promise, though she should be sharper for that run.
Chosen Comrade (4yo): This Walk In The Park filly was a point winner at Borris House in March for Gary Murphy. She made an immediate impact on the track by winning a bumper at Tipperary in May, beating the well-fancied Katie’s Melody and subsequent bumper winner Noble Name. She is expected to be in the mix.
Spotlight Verdict
Judged on her Fontwell effort and her Flat form, AS FAST AS WIND appears well treated off an unaltered mark and is taken to open her hurdles account. Belcamo, a similar type, is second choice ahead of Roadshow who may build on his Sedgefield win. Most of the others have possibilities and this is reasonably open. (Note: This appears to be a mis-citation in the source material as it refers to Kempton 1.46, not Limerick 2.07. The actual Limerick 2.07 verdict is below.)
This can be narrowed to three serious contenders with some confidence. ARUNTOTHEQUEEN may improve enough from her Listowel run to beat point and bumper winner Chosen Comrade and Fedneys Park, a point winner for Mick Goff and now with Henry de Bromhead.
Race Statistics
Category
Details
Source
Age Groups
4yo 0-2-22, 5yo 3-4-31, 6yo 1-2-12, 7yo 0-0-1
Fate of Favourites
1112
Trainer Records (w-pl-r)
Henry De Bromhead 1-1-4
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Aruntothequeen:Strengths: Listed bumper winner pedigree; should be fitter after a recent run following a long absence. Weaknesses: Has recently failed to match her bumper promise over hurdles. Suitability: Needs to step up significantly from her latest start to justify the rating.
Chosen Comrade:Strengths: Impressive recent bumper winner, defeating subsequent winner Noble Name. Unexposed over hurdles and expected to be highly competitive. Weaknesses: None stated, though she is making her hurdles debut under rules. Suitability: Highly regarded and expected to be challenging for the win.
Minella Hollow (5yo): This gelding was a dual bumper winner last year. He was disappointing on his hurdling debut at Navan recently, especially coming back after a long absence. However, he is expected to improve from that run and be more competitive today.
Torps (5yo): Has demonstrated consistent form in defeat across a bumper and three maiden hurdles. His most recent start was on comeback at Listowel where he finished third, but was beaten by 22 lengths, indicating he needs considerable improvement. He holds a Topspeed rating of 88 and an RP Rating of 107.
Spotlight Verdict
Dual bumper winner MINELLA HOLLOW needs to improve a fair bit from his Navan hurdling debut but may be able to do so. Beckistine was unlucky not to win over C&D in January and can be a player on return as can point winner Walks In June.
Minella Hollow:Strengths: Proven dual bumper winner; expected to be much sharper after his first run back following a break. Weaknesses: Had a disappointing hurdling debut. Suitability: Potential contender if he shows the improvement expected by connections.
Torps:Strengths: Consistent in the placings in maiden hurdles. Holds a strong Topspeed rating of 107. Weaknesses: Was comprehensively beaten by 22 lengths in his most recent run at Listowel. Suitability: Requires substantial improvement to win this contest.
Garnetot (4yo): Finished runner-up in a maiden at Clonmel most recently, well clear of the third. He is likely to make his presence felt but may struggle to reverse the form he showed at Navan with Welluknow.
Tir Og (4yo): A front-running filly who has won her last two starts at Sligo and Downpatrick. Her handicap mark has risen by a total of 14lb.
Spotlight Verdict
Mark Molloy’s well-related runner WELLUKNOW should improve from his return and can uphold form with subsequent Clonmel second Garnetot. Progressive filly Tir Og has made all to record wins at Sligo and Downpatrick and may be capable of sustained improvement. Cahirdown Boy can show the benefit of a run over fences at Listowel.
Garnetot:Strengths: Displayed good recent form finishing second and pulling clear of the third. Weaknesses: Holds previous form he may struggle to reverse with rival Welluknow. Suitability: A genuine contender based on recent performance.
Tir Og:Strengths: Progressive mare who has won her last two races from the front; may be capable of further sustained improvement. Weaknesses: Carries a significant accumulated penalty of 14lb from recent successes. Suitability: Expected to make a bold bid.
4. Race 3.40: John Thomas McNamara Series (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle (3m)
TimeWise Master Top Two
Total TimeWise Rating
SP
Kir (FR)
N/A
5/1
Meehall (IRE)
N/A
9/2
Recent Form and Comments
Kir (5yo): Had fair form in this grade, evidenced by fourth placings in maidens at Down Royal and Tipperary. He fell at the last on his sole point start while running a big race. He benefits from a strong trainer/rider combination.
Meehall (9yo): Stays well and has been placed in three of his last five chase starts, most recently finishing third behind Pride Of Place at Listowel.
Spotlight Verdict
A tentative vote goes to MEEHALL who stays well and has been running respectably over fences. Likely dangers are the top-weight Kir who is relatively unexposed and the bottom-weight Zolpharine, narrowly beaten over fences at Killarney a fortnight ago. Nephin Beg has fair prospects if fit and ready after a break.
Kir:Strengths: Relatively unexposed; demonstrated fair maiden form which is competitive for this grade; powerful connections. Weaknesses: Must improve on maiden form to win a handicap. Suitability: Considered a likely danger.
Meehall:Strengths: Proven stayer; running respectably over fences recently. Weaknesses: His best recent form is over fences, not hurdles. Suitability: Given a tentative vote for the win, primarily due to staying ability and consistent form.
5. Race 4.15: BOYLE Sports JT McNamara Munster National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (3m)
TimeWise Master Top Two
Total TimeWise Rating
SP
Arctic Fly (IRE)
N/A
10/1
Sea Music (IRE)
N/A
12/1
Recent Form and Comments
Arctic Fly (7yo): Her novice chase campaign was aborted last season due to two failures to complete. She returned in good form, winning at Tipperary and finishing second behind Aspurofthemoment at Galway. She subsequently pulled up in the Kerry National. Stamina doubts remain for this 3m trip.
Sea Music (7yo): Won a 2m4f Punchestown novice handicap chase in May. She made good headway in the Galway Plate before fading late. Jumping issues surfaced again at Killarney. She needs to find a bit more compared to French Dynamite based on their Kerry National run.
Spotlight Verdict
Eric McNamara won this race last year and has two strong contenders. Last season’s Kim Muir fourth WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT should be at peak form after his Irish debut at Listowel and can turn the tables on Talk In The Park. He may be given most to do by progressive novice Boston Rover and Listowel winner Pride Of Place. Top weight French Dynamite gives McNamara another good shot at this prize. He has an edge over Sea Music on running in the Kerry National in which the Mullins runners You Oughta Know and Arctic Fly failed to complete.
Gordon Elliott 3-2-33, W P Mullins 3-2-8, E McNamara 1-3-13, Henry De Bromhead 1-4-15, John Patrick Ryan 0-1-7
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Arctic Fly:Strengths: Showed good recent form winning/placing before the Kerry National. Weaknesses: History of failing to complete over fences; pulled up on latest start; stamina for 3m is doubted. Suitability: Highly risky given jumping and stamina concerns.
Sea Music:Strengths: Punchestown novice handicap chase winner. Weaknesses: Jumping issues have recurred; faded late in the Galway Plate; beaten by French Dynamite in the Kerry National. Suitability: Needs a clear round and improved stamina display.
El Champo (7yo): This horse has recently hit form over fences, recording wins in a Tramore beginners’ event and a valuable Listowel handicap. Both wins were over 2m6f.
Theatre Native (7yo): She got off the mark over fences by winning a valuable mares’ Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham in April. She subsequently ran well below that level at Punchestown. She is known to go well fresh.
Spotlight Verdict
Although he hasn’t been in the best of form on the Flat and over hurdles this year, WALNUT BEACH is only 2lb higher than when beating El Champo in a Listed Killarney handicap last year so can take this. The latter is closely matched with General Clermont from their Listowel clash. Conyers Hill and Theatre Native are quality horses but lack a recent run.
Race Statistics
Category
Details
Source
Age Groups
6yo 0-1-5, 7yo 2-0-3, 8yo 0-1-3, 9yo 0-1-5
Fate of Favourites
14
Trainer Records (w-pl-r)
Eoin Griffin 1-0-1, Gavin Cromwell 0-1-1
Assessment of Top Two Chances
El Champo:Strengths: In great form over fences with two recent wins. Weaknesses: Both recent wins were over a longer trip (2m6f), and this 2m3f trip might be too sharp. Suitability: Should be competitive, but may prefer a stiffer test of stamina.
Theatre Native:Strengths: Grade 3 winning form over fences; capable of running well fresh. Weaknesses: Ran poorly after her Cheltenham victory; lacks a recent run. Suitability: A quality mare, but fitness and ability to recapture Grade 3 form after a break are key factors.
July Flower (6yo): A highly accomplished mare, holding dual bumper and hurdle wins in France, including a Grade 1 bumper. She also won a Leopardstown Grade 3 hurdle and ran creditably in Grade 1 mares’ races subsequently.
Tareze (6yo): A point winner who has secured two wins over hurdles, including a Navan mares’ Listed race in February. Her last run was a respectable fourth in a Grade 1 novice at Fairyhouse.
Spotlight Verdict
Rated 143 over hurdles, JULY FLOWER (nap) looks the one to beat making her chasing debut. She is the first-string for her powerful yard and goes well fresh too. Her stablemate Tareze plus Stormalong are also quality rivals so can’t be underestimated.
Race Statistics
No specific Age Group, Fate of Favourites, or Trainer Records are provided for this race in the source material.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
July Flower:Strengths: Highest rated mare over hurdles (143); Grade 3 winner; considered the first-string for her yard and performs well fresh. Weaknesses: This is her chasing debut, so her jumping ability needs verification. Suitability: The obvious selection and expected to win if she jumps adequately.
Tareze:Strengths: Listed hurdle winner with Grade 1 novice experience. Weaknesses: Chasing debut. Suitability: Considered a quality rival who should not be underestimated.
TimeWise Chronicles 
Leave a comment