Pontefract Race Analysis: October 25th

2.03 Happy 60th Birthday Jane Phillips Restricted Maiden Stakes (6f)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Marseillan (L De Souza/Frederick Larson)	72
2	Dream More (T Easterby/David Allan)	69

Recent Form and Comments

• Marseillan: Fared best of the newcomers when finishing third at 20-1 at Chelmsford (7f, AW) last month. He holds a useful pedigree providing optimism for improvement. He is running in first-time cheekpieces.
• Dream More: This is a six-race maiden who has failed to progress. He was denied a clear run when finishing seventh of 14 in a nursery at Redcar last month (6f, good to soft, beaten about 4l).

Spotlight Verdict

A chance is taken on Northern Tempest. Marseillan was third at Chelmsford last month on his first start and is feared most ahead of Kody B, who went close at Chester before a lesser run on soft ground at Beverley.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: Data for age groups of runners in this specific race is not provided in the source format (only previous winner listed).
• Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source format.
• Trainer Records: T Easterby has a 46% run-to-form rate in the last 14 days. L De Souza has a 40% run-to-form rate in the last 14 days.

Assessment of the Top Two

• Marseillan
  • Strengths: Showed promise on debut, finishing third among newcomers. Holds a useful pedigree suggesting further improvement. Runs with first-time cheekpieces.
  • Weaknesses: Has only run once (on AW).
  • Suitability: Expected to be in the mix, particularly as the runner-up preference in the Spotlight Verdict.
• Dream More
  • Strengths: Recent poor run (seventh at Redcar) included being denied a clear run.
  • Weaknesses: Six-race maiden who has failed to progress.
  • Suitability: Could be thereabouts, but generally unprogressive.

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2.33 William Hill Each Way Extra Nursery Handicap (1m)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Ubetterseethis (C Lidster/P J McDonald)	79
2	Ohara (E Houghton/Clifford Lee)	77

Recent Form and Comments

• Ubetterseethis: Has one win from his 11 starts. He returned to form recently when running runner-up in a Musselburgh seller (7f, good) last Monday. There is every chance he will stay 1m.
• Ohara: Ran acceptably from the front when finishing fourth in a novice at Bath (1m, good to soft) 11 days ago, wearing retained first-time cheekpieces. He is now 0-5 and needs something extra now that he is back in a handicap.

Spotlight Verdict

The step up to 1m and the first-time blinkers could elicit a bigger performance from Resdev Time and she gets the nod. The Caddy Master kept on nicely over 7f at Haydock last month and is feared most now back up in trip. Nursery newcomer Attention Seeker is next on the list, while Ibn Altheeb and Harswell River both won nurseries last time.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: Only 2yo runners are eligible for this Nursery Handicap.
• Fate of Favourites: 015121121.
• Trainer Records: David Loughnane (0-1-1), David O’Meara (0-1-2).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Ubetterseethis
  • Strengths: Recently returned to form with a runner-up finish. Expected to stay 1m.
  • Weaknesses: Unproven on slow ground.
  • Suitability: Not ruled out now returning to a nursery.
• Ohara
  • Strengths: Showed good form recently (fourth at Bath) with first-time cheekpieces retained.
  • Weaknesses: 0-5 record. Needs improvement when returning to a handicap.
  • Suitability: Needs something extra to feature for the win.

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3.03 British Stallion Studs EBF Silver Tankard Stakes (Listed Race) (1m)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Shayem (K Burke/Clifford Lee)	105
2	Rochfortbridge (A Keatley/Oisin McSweeney)	98

Recent Form and Comments

• Shayem: Won on debut at Haydock (7f, good) in August. His sole defeat came when third in a Listed race there (1m, good) behind the subsequent Royal Lodge winner. He has since readily landed a three-runner conditions race at Epsom (8.5f, good). He has leading claims.
• Rochfortbridge: Won on debut at Ayr (7f, good to soft) in July. He performed well when running fourth in the Group 3 Acomb at York (7f, good to firm) next time. He subsequently failed to build on that form when finishing fifth in a Group 3 at Chantilly (1m, soft) last month. The York performance suggested he would improve for 1m.

Spotlight Verdict

Top of the list is Shayem, who has won two of his three starts and whose sole defeat came when third in a hot Listed race at Haydock. The Ralph Beckett-trained filly Morven is second choice. Rochfortbridge may yet have more to offer at 1m.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: Only 2yo runners are eligible for this race.
• Fate of Favourites: 110123212.
• Trainer Records: Ralph Beckett has a record of 2 wins and 4 places from 7 runners in this race.

Assessment of the Top Two

• Shayem
  • Strengths: Consistent, holding two wins from three starts. Proven Listed form (third to a subsequent Group winner). Holds the highest TimeWise Master RPR in the field (105).
  • Weaknesses: None apparent.
  • Suitability: Has leading claims and is the Spotlight selection.
• Rochfortbridge
  • Strengths: Demonstrated Group 3 ability (fourth in the Acomb). The previous run suggested he would appreciate the step up to 1m.
  • Weaknesses: Recent run in France was disappointing (fifth in a Group 3).
  • Suitability: May have more to offer at 1m and remains a player.

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3.33 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies’ Handicap (6f)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Stormy Impact (R Fahey/Warren Fentiman)	102
2	Sophia’s Starlight (G Tuer/Oliver Stammers)	99

Recent Form and Comments

• Stormy Impact: Has been well below par in Listed races on her last two starts. She is only 1lb higher than when winning a valuable AW handicap in July, and 4lb above the mark she defied in the 3YO Dash in June. She cannot be ruled out.
• Sophia’s Starlight: She won this race 12 months ago off a 3lb higher mark, followed by a good fourth in a Doncaster Listed race. Her season started slowly. She finished fifth of 12 at Ripon recently after the blindfold was removed late on.

Spotlight Verdict

A chance is taken on last year’s winner Sophia’s Starlight who has had excuses for her last two defeats. Revivals from Rogue Sensation (second choice) and Stormy Impact would put them firmly in the picture.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 0-1-3, 4yo+ 1-0-3.
• Fate of Favourites: Not provided in the source format (only previous winner listed).
• Trainer Records: Grant Tuer has a record of 1 win from 1 runner in this race.

Assessment of the Top Two

• Stormy Impact
  • Strengths: Capable of defying higher marks based on valuable handicap wins in June/July.
  • Weaknesses: Recent Listed performances have been poor.
  • Suitability: Needs a revival, but capable on best form.
• Sophia’s Starlight
  • Strengths: Previous C&D winner (won this race last year) off a higher mark. Her recent defeats have mitigating circumstances.
  • Weaknesses: Started the season slowly.
  • Suitability: The Spotlight Verdict’s selection, strongly favoured by course history.

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4.03 Phil Bull Trophy Honouring Geoff Greetham Conditions Stakes (2m2f)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Divine Comedy (H Eustace/Kaiya Fraser)	119
2	Arkinthestars (K Burke/Pierre-Louis Jamin)	97

Recent Form and Comments

• Divine Comedy: She is 0-6 this year but has consistently run well. Recently finished second at Goodwood (2m, heavy) last month and fourth of 22 in the Cesarewitch (2m2f, good to firm) nine days ago. She is a leading candidate.
• Arkinthestars: A 3yo filly with three wins this year (1m2f/1m3f, good to firm-soft). She finished runner-up on her last two starts (1m4f, good), most recently at Catterick on Saturday. She is unproven in terms of extreme stamina at this distance.

Spotlight Verdict

The mare Divine Comedy was fourth in the Cesarewitch recently and this could be an excellent opportunity to post her first win of the year. The ex-Ballydoyle Chemistry is the stand-out form danger on his first run for Ivan Furtado but a better option for the forecast may well be Captain Potter, who loves it here.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 3-0-3, 4yo+ 5-8-44.
• Fate of Favourites: 12421141.
• Trainer Records: Not provided.

Assessment of the Top Two

• Divine Comedy
  • Strengths: Consistent high-level performer, placing well in competitive races like the Cesarewitch over a comparable trip. She holds the highest RPR (119).
  • Weaknesses: Still seeking her first win of the year (0-6).
  • Suitability: Leading candidate and Spotlight selection, excellent opportunity.
• Arkinthestars
  • Strengths: Winning form this year, including recent placings.
  • Weaknesses: Going into the unknown stamina-wise, needing to step up significantly to challenge the leaders in this grade.
  • Suitability: Needs to be better than ever to pose a threat.

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4.33 Napoleons Casino Bradford Handicap (1m2f)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Whatsgoingonmarvin (Sir M Prescott/Paul Mulrennan)	97
2	Austrian Theory (T Easterby/David Allan)	94

Recent Form and Comments

• Whatsgoingonmarvin: Won his first two handicap starts (1m5f/1m6f). He continued in good form before returning to winning ways at Sandown (soft) last month on his first attempt at 1m2f. He could have more to offer at this trip and is firmly in calculations up 7lb.
• Austrian Theory: He is inconsistent this year but has been dropping down the weights. He finished second of 13 off this mark at Ayr (1m2f, good to soft) last month. He won this race last year (soft) on his only previous course visit.

Spotlight Verdict

The 3yo Whatsgoingonmarvin took his form to a new level when dropped back to 1m2f at Sandown last month and he can follow up. Handicap newcomer Livonian is second choice. Tipsy Tiger was second to the selection at Sandown and could prove best of the older brigade if his preferred slow ground prevails. Crack Shot, Austrian Theory (last year’s winner) and Tele Red are others who can go well.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 4-6-37, 4yo+ 5-11-65.
• Fate of Favourites: 311121112.
• Trainer Records: Tim Easterby (2-2-9), K R Burke (0-1-3).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Whatsgoingonmarvin
  • Strengths: Progressive 3yo who won comfortably over this trip recently. Firmly in calculations. Spotlight selection.
  • Weaknesses: Faces a 7lb rise.
  • Suitability: Expected to follow up.
• Austrian Theory
  • Strengths: Course winner (won this race last year), handles soft ground. Recently finished second off the current mark.
  • Weaknesses: Inconsistent form this year.
  • Suitability: On the shortlist; strong chance if preferred slow ground prevails.

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5.08 William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap (5f)

Rank	Horse (Trainer/Jockey)	Total TimeWise Rating (Latest Master RPR)
1	Arnhem (J Goldie/Paul Mulrennan)	91
2	Azure Zain (R Fahey/Warren Fentiman)	89

Recent Form and Comments

• Arnhem: Won on stable debut at Haydock (5f, good) last month and subsequently went close on his next two starts (5f, soft). He was forced to wait for a clear run when a close fifth at Musselburgh (5f, good) last Monday. He is firmly in calculations.
• Azure Zain: Won a 6f AW novice in June. He was back on song when finishing third of 13 at Ayr (6f, soft) three weeks ago. He showed pace last time, suggesting the drop back to 5f could be beneficial.

Spotlight Verdict

Preference is for Arnhem (nap), who has been in rude health since joining Jim Goldie. Reigning Profit has an excellent record over C&D and could return to form. Azure Zain is third choice. The in-form Stirrup Cup will have to be respected if his preferred slow ground prevails.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 1-5-24, 4yo+ 8-13-84.
• Fate of Favourites: 626631311.
• Trainer Records: Declan Carroll (1-1-2), Michael Dods (1-0-5), Ruth Carr (1-1-5), Tim Easterby (1-1-9), Julie Camacho (0-1-2), Richard Fahey (0-4-10).

Assessment of the Top Two

• Arnhem
  • Strengths: Highly consistent since joining Jim Goldie (win and two close placings). Was unlucky last time. Firmly in calculations.
  • Weaknesses: None apparent on recent form.
  • Suitability: Spotlight selection, expected to run well.
• Azure Zain
  • Strengths: Back on form recently (third at Ayr). Showed pace, making the drop to 5f potentially fruitful.
  • Weaknesses: Underwhelming start to his handicap career.
  • Suitability: Third choice in the Spotlight Verdict.