Race Preview: 7:00 Newcastle Handicap

This is a Class 5 handicap run over a mile on Newcastle’s Tapeta all-weather surface. It’s a fascinating contest featuring a group of unexposed, improving three-year-olds taking on some more seasoned handicappers. The focus will be on which of the younger horses has the most potential to progress past their current handicap mark.

---

Analysis of the Main Contenders

• Terrapin (11/10 Fav): This Andrew Balding-trained colt is the red-hot favourite, and it’s easy to see why. After showing glimmers of ability in novice races, he was hugely impressive when making his handicap debut over this course and distance 19 days ago, winning by a comfortable four lengths. The handicapper has reacted by raising him 9lb, but the authority of that victory suggests he could be a horse well ahead of his rating. He has significant scope for further improvement and is the one to beat.
• Grey Soul (15/4): Represents the powerful Roger Varian yard and has an interesting profile. While still a maiden after five starts, he has shown fair ability and wasn’t beaten far last time out at Kempton. Crucially, the stable now applies blinkers for the first time, a move which often sparks sharp improvement. With top jockey Silvestre De Sousa booked, he could be a completely different proposition and looks like the main danger.
• Selection (11/2): Another progressive three-year-old who comes here in winning form, having scored over this course and distance just seven days ago. She carries a 6lb penalty for that success, which is fair. She clearly handles the track well and is on an upward curve, but this is a stronger race, and she’ll need to take another step forward to trouble the favourite.
• Travis (12/1): The most interesting of the older horses. He ran a cracker over C&D three weeks ago when finishing second, and that form looks incredibly strong as the winner of that race has since won three more times. He’s only 1lb higher today and, while he doesn’t win often, he is a solid each-way contender at a decent price.

---

Verdict

This race revolves around the potential of the favourite, TERRAPIN (Nap). His win here last time was so visually impressive that he is taken to overcome a 9lb rise in the weights and continue his progression. He looks like a handicapper with a bright future.

The biggest threat could come from Grey Soul, for whom the first-time blinkers could be a game-changer. If the headgear works, he has the ability to go very close. Travis has the strongest piece of recent form and looks overpriced to hit the frame.

1. Terrapin
2. Grey Soul
3. Travis