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2.12 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden

(5f 180y, 2yo, Soft)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Ocean’s Breath (IRE) (97 Master RP Rating)
2. Michael’s Well (IRE) (86 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Ocean’s Breath: Made a promising debut over the course and distance (C&D) a fortnight ago, staying on well to chase home a winner by 3/4 length despite being slow to break on yielding ground. Representing a powerful stable, Ocean’s Breath is considered a major player.
• Michael’s Well: Had a very promising debut at Naas nine days ago over this trip, staying on well on yielding ground when beaten by 0.75l (racing away from the winner in the centre of the track). He should be a major player if he handles the softer ground. Note that he was a non-runner at the Curragh on Tuesday.

Spotlight Verdict

Recent C&D debut second OCEAN’S BREATH can go one better here if handling the softer ground. Michael’s Well would be a big threat although he was a non-runner at the Curragh on Tuesday.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: All runners are 2yo.
• Fate of Favourites: 14212.
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): G M Lyons 0-1-1, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-2-5, Andrew Slattery 0-1-3, Mrs John Harrington 0-1-3, Ms Sheila Lavery 0-1-4.

Assessment of Top Two

• Ocean’s Breath (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Highest Master RPR (97). Showed strong finishing promise on C&D debut.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Needs to prove suitability for the softer ground.
  • Suitability: High chance based on performance figures and pedigree for improvement.
• Michael’s Well (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Strong debut run at Naas. High RPR (86).
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Needs to handle softer ground. Was withdrawn from a race earlier in the week.
  • Suitability: Potential major player if handling conditions and benefiting from debut improvement.

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2.47 Christmas Parties At Navan Racecourse Handicap

(5f 180y, 3yo+, Soft)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Gegenpressing (67 Master RP Rating)
2. Steel Magnolia (IRE) (65 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Gegenpressing: Since winning at Sligo in May (his fifth career win), he has finished mid-field in three subsequent starts. He is currently rated 2lb above his last winning mark.
• Steel Magnolia: Achieved a good effort when second over 5f on her handicap debut at Tipperary in April, and recently returned to form with a second place at Bellewstown, giving her an edge over several rivals here. She was a fair sixth over 5f at the Curragh last week, and the extra distance and soft ground should be beneficial.

Spotlight Verdict

Sixth over the minimum trip at the Curragh last week, STEEL MAGNOLIA should be suited by the extra yardage and gets the vote to reverse previous Bellewstown form with Act Of Unity. The first six from that race clash again here, and both Only Spoofing and Whatswrongnow could also feature. Another to consider is Gimmieminnie who ran a blinder here two weeks ago before failing to reproduce that form at Dundalk last week.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 2-3-35, 4yo+ 7-20-122.
• Fate of Favourites: 113200000 (0 successful).
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): John C McConnell 1-2-7, Adrian McGuinness 0-2-4, Chris Timmons 0-1-2, R K Watson 0-2-2, W McCreery 0-1-5.

Assessment of Top Two

• Gegenpressing (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Experienced winner (5 career wins).
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Recent form is only mid-field; rated 2lb higher than last winning mark.
  • Suitability: Has stamina concerns given the recent form summary focusing on a 57-race career and being above his winning mark.
• Steel Magnolia (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Expected to benefit from the extra yardage (5f 180y) and soft ground. Demonstrated good form recently with a second place.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Failed to build on debut handicap form in earlier starts.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable given the anticipated benefit of trip and ground, making her the Spotlight selection.

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3.22 Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden

(5f, 2yo, Soft)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Bad Boy Rizz (IRE) (86 Master RP Rating)
2. Tertre Rouge (IRE) (78 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Bad Boy Rizz: Has made the frame in all four starts since debut in June. He was recently promoted 5lb to 79 after finishing second at Cork, where he finished a neck ahead of Ennoble (third place).
• Tertre Rouge: Rated marginally superior to Bad Boy Rizz and Ennoble. He contested Listed races over 5f and 6f following a debut fourth in a decent 5f maiden at Tipperary (behind the useful Kansas).

Spotlight Verdict

The experience gained in running in two Listed races may give TERTRE ROUGE an edge over Ennoble and Big Bad Rizz who are closely matched on Cork running. The selection’s debut fourth was in a Tipperary maiden that has worked out well.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: All runners are 2yo.
• Fate of Favourites: 1314.
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): J A Stack 1-1-2, Joseph Patrick O’Brien 0-1-3.

Assessment of Top Two

• Bad Boy Rizz (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Highly consistent, placing in his last four starts. Holds the highest Master RPR (86). Closely matched with a main rival (Ennoble).
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Lacks the higher-level race experience of Tertre Rouge.
  • Suitability: Strong contender based on consistent recent form, but possibly lacking class edge compared to Tertre Rouge’s experience.
• Tertre Rouge (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Has experience from two Listed races. Debut form at Tipperary worked out very well. Rated marginally superior based on BHA/RPR context despite a lower Master RPR.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Lower Master RPR (78) than Bad Boy Rizz (86).
  • Suitability: Preferred by the Spotlight analysis due to experience and strong prior form context.

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3.57 Navan Racing Festival Maiden

(5f, 3yo+, Soft)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Lunigiana (IRE) (89 Master RP Rating)
2. Glory To Be (IRE) (84 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Lunigiana: Exhibited good 2yo form, including a Listed third. She has run fine on both outings since her return last month, finishing a strong-closing fourth over C&D a fortnight ago, just a head behind Glory To Be. A visor is now tried for the first time.
• Glory To Be: A consistent filly, having placed in four of five maidens since July, including a third over C&D two weeks ago. She handles soft ground and is entitled to major claims, though she runs a bit in snatches and isn’t progressing rapidly.

Spotlight Verdict

A maiden which won’t take too much winning and the first-time visored LUNIGIANA (nap) is taken to reverse recent form with Glory To Be, the selection having come from much further back on that occasion. Star Allure excelled herself last time in first-time blinkers at Bellewstown on soft so can’t be ruled out, while Bint Elnadim Star could go well in first-time headgear if handling the conditions.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 2-7-40, 4yo+ 2-1-15.
• Fate of Favourites: 1312.
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): M C Grassick 1-0-4, Edward Lynam 0-1-3.

Assessment of Top Two

• Lunigiana (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: High Master RPR (89). Strong finish expected to reverse recent C&D form. Good 2yo form (Listed level). First-time visor applied.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Was beaten a head by Glory To Be last time.
  • Suitability: Highly suitable; selected as the nap (best bet) due to anticipated improvement from the visor and running style.
• Glory To Be (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Consistent recent placing form; handles soft ground.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Runs inconsistently (‘in snatches’); generally not progressing.
  • Suitability: Strong chance but expected to be beaten by Lunigiana this time.

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4.30 Final Fence Marquee Handicap

(5f, 3yo+, Soft)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Arklow Lad (IRE) (83 Master RP Rating)
2. Amicitia (IRE) (80 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Amicitia: Won well over C&D early last month. She was raised 11lb for that win and subsequently ran well to take third over 6f at Cork, although she weakened in the final furlong.
• Arklow Lad: Less exposed than most rivals. He handled soft ground when winning a 5f maiden and finished close second behind the favourite in his first handicap at Naas. Considered a strong contender.

Spotlight Verdict

Last year’s winner MICKEY THE STEEL is a stone lower in the ratings and has shown definite signs of a return to form recently. Likely dangers are Step Back In Time who recorded a fourth C&D win here two weeks ago, and the relatively unexposed Arklow Lad, a soft-ground maiden winner who went close at Naas in his first handicap. With 7lb claimed the consistent Amicitia could not be ruled out.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 1-5-19, 4yo+ 5-6-42.
• Fate of Favourites: 431124.
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Joseph Anthony Murray 2-0-2, J P Murtagh 1-0-3, W McCreery 1-1-2, Kieran P Cotter 0-1-1.

Assessment of Top Two

• Arklow Lad (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Relatively unexposed; proven on soft ground; ran strongly in debut handicap. Highest Master RPR among the top two (83).
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Has run in only one prior handicap.
  • Suitability: Strong contender due to progressive profile and suitability for ground.
• Amicitia (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Recent C&D winner. Consistent (third at Cork) and benefits from 7lb claim.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Received an 11lb rise for C&D win. Weakened slightly over 6f last time.
  • Suitability: Considered consistent and cannot be ruled out.

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5.02 Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Maiden

(1m 6f, 3yo+, Sft-Hvy)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Marazion (IRE) (87 Master RP Rating)
2. Icare Desbois (FR) (77 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Marazion: Sets the standard on her form from the first half of the season, including a creditable fourth over 1m5f. She wasn’t at her best on her recent comeback run at Killarney (soft) but might improve enough to win with first-time cheekpieces applied.
• Icare Desbois: Won a bumper and a maiden hurdle (soft ground). After a 10-month absence, he ran a credible third in a 1m3f Flat maiden at Killarney (soft) earlier this month, and is expected to build on that performance here.

Spotlight Verdict

Tricky enough to call. Marazion is the percentage call but remains vulnerable and it may pay to side with the long-absent Lord Byron, an eyecatcher on his sole juvenile start and bred to relish this trip. Ballydoyle also run Paul Henry who has a bit to prove now, while the most interesting of the NH performers looks to be Icare Desbois on the back of a decent Killarney comeback run.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 4-5-24, 4yo+ 1-5-36.
• Fate of Favourites: 21061.
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): A P O’Brien 2-0-3, Mrs John Harrington 2-1-5, Noel Meade 1-3-4.

Assessment of Top Two

• Marazion (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Sets the standard based on highest Master RPR (87) and prior form this season. Expected to improve from comeback run and with first-time headgear.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Not really progressing and described as vulnerable. Below best form recently.
  • Suitability: Percentage call but faces vulnerability due to lack of recent progression.
• Icare Desbois (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Proven stamina and soft ground suitability from jumping career. Showed decent form on recent Flat comeback (third) and should build on it.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Had a long absence (10 months) before his last run.
  • Suitability: Highly interesting based on jumping form and strong comeback run.

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5.32 Sign Up To GavinLynchRacing.com Handicap

(1m 6f, 3yo+, Sft-Hvy)

TimeWise Master Top Two Rated

1. Just Another Eagle (IRE) (61 Master RP Rating)
2. Bynx (IRE) (60 Master RP Rating)

Recent Form and Comments

• Just Another Eagle: Her only victory came on the All Weather (AW) last December. While she shaped okay on the AW recently, her best turf form has been achieved on good ground.
• Bynx: Despite being 0-18 on the Flat, she has shown good form recently, finishing third over C&D (yielding) and staying on for third over 2m1f at Thurles. She is considered one to look at.

Spotlight Verdict

Wide open. On recent form Maxwell Smart looks the pick but a chance is taken on GAMIGIN, who was left with plenty to do at Bellewstown last time when staying on under considerate handling and is taken to reverse form with Numidia. Bynx and C&D winner Share The Treasure are others to consider.

Race Statistics

• Age Groups: 3yo 2-1-39, 4yo+ 8-28-160.
• Fate of Favourites: 3503045611 (0 successful).
• Trainer Records (w-pl-r): Mrs John Harrington 0-1-2, Paul W Flynn 0-2-5.

Assessment of Top Two

• Just Another Eagle (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Recent AW effort was satisfactory.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Best turf form is on good ground, which contrasts strongly with the Soft/Heavy going expected. Sole win was AW.
  • Suitability: Highly questionable suitability due to likely unsuitable ground conditions.
• Bynx (Strengths, Weaknesses, Suitability):
  • Strengths: Showing good, consistent recent form over staying trips (two consecutive third places). Mentioned as one to consider in the Spotlight Verdict.
  • Weaknesses/Concerns: Winless in 18 Flat starts.
  • Suitability: Strong chance based on recent form and stamina suitability, compensating for her maiden status.