Race Preview: 6:40 Kempton

This is a competitive Class 5 handicap and a qualifier for the London Mile Series, run on Kempton’s Polytrack surface. The going is described as Standard To Slow, which may place a greater emphasis on stamina over the one-mile trip.

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It’s Now or Never for the Favourite

• Moutai: Everything appears to have fallen into place for this expensive maiden to finally get a win on the board. A €225,000 purchase, he has run in some very strong races for the grade, and the form of his runs at Newbury and Newmarket has worked out particularly well.Tonight, he drops into a Class 5 handicap for the first time—a significant ease in grade. He also has the perfect draw in stall 1, which is a big advantage over this course. He’s becoming frustrating, but on paper, there can be no excuses tonight.

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The Course & Distance Specialists

• Love Your Work: The main threat looks to be this 9-year-old veteran. He is a multiple winner at Kempton and scored over this exact course and distance (C&D) just three weeks ago. The jockey for that win, Hector Crouch, boasts a perfect 2-2 record when riding him. A 4lb rise in the weights is fair, and from a handy draw in stall 2, he is a huge danger.
• Monopolise: Another with a fine record here, having won over this C&D three times. However, he comes with risks attached. He hasn’t threatened in his last four starts and has a poor record when returning from a break, which he does tonight after 96 days off.

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The In-Form Sprinter

• Waistcoat: This horse comes here in the form of his life after posting a career-best effort when a close second over 7f here just 12 days ago. He is fit and clearly thriving. However, all three of his career wins have come over 6f, and the step back up to a mile is a major stamina question mark against him.

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Verdict

This looks like a golden opportunity for MOUTAI to finally justify his hefty price tag and get his head in front. The significant drop in class, coupled with the perfect rail draw and strong back-form, makes him very hard to oppose.

The biggest danger is undoubtedly the course specialist Love Your Work, who is in fine fettle and has an excellent partnership with his jockey. Waistcoat is in great form but the trip is a serious concern.

1. Moutai
2. Love Your Work
3. Waistcoat