Chelmsford: This analysis details the Chelmsford races in chronological order, identifying the TimeWise Master Top Two rated horses, summarising their details, providing the Spotlight Verdict and Race Statistics, and assessing their chances.
4.45 Flutter Proudly Supporting Pancreatic Cancer UK EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (6f)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Argy Bhaji
7/2
J R Fanshawe
Daniel Muscutt
Titanck
11/2
Richard Hughes
Finley Marsh
Recent Form and Comments
Argy Bhaji: Form figures: 7671 3 M. This horse showed plenty of promise when finishing a close third of 12 at Kempton (6f, AW) on debut 22 days ago. As a 30,000gns yearling and a half-brother to a 5f AW 2yo winner, he is open to improvement and has “lots to like”.
Titanck: Form figures: 7909 7375 H. This horse can race freely. He shaped well when dropped back to 6f in a handicap at Kempton (AW) 15 days ago. He was previously third at Ffos Las behind a subsequent French Group 3 winner and is now back in a novice contest.
Spotlight Verdict
Zoiros sets the standard… but he may prove vulnerable to ARGY BHAJI who showed plenty of promise when a close third at Kempton on debut. Titanck can race freely but shaped well over this trip last time and is second on the list, with newcomer Thankfully Simmy worth a market check.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: The race is exclusively for 2yo.
Fate of Favourites: 3232.
Trainer Records (in this race): Richard Hughes 0-1-1 (wins-placed-runs).
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Argy Bhaji
Unexposed, showed potential on debut. Open to significant improvement.
Only one career start (22 days ago).
Titanck
Showed improved form at this trip (6f) on AW recently. Form references hint at ability (behind subsequent Group 3 winner).
Tends to race freely.
5.15 ‘Timeform Sprint Series Qualifier’ Handicap (6f)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Fan Mail
9/2
T D Easterby
Sean Kirrane
So Sassy
7/2
J R Fanshawe
Hector Crouch
Recent Form and Comments
Fan Mail: Form figures: 7754 670051 M. This horse was unlucky not to finish closer at Newcastle last month after meeting some trouble. He then secured a clear run and finished off strongly to win at Southwell (6f, AW) 20 days ago.
So Sassy: Form figures: 6262 -36441 H. She got off the mark at the eighth attempt by winning at Lingfield (6f, AW) 63 days ago. She achieved this win coming from the back of the field.
Spotlight Verdict
Plenty of these have chances but FAN MAIL finished off strongly to win at Southwell last time and he’s selected to follow up off this 4lb higher mark. Winchurch (second choice) didn’t get the best of runs last time and has claims if coping with the step back up to 6f, with Zabeel Road, Heaven Knows and So Sassy also on the shortlist.
Recent AW winner, demonstrating ability to handle this distance and surface.
Returns off a 4lb higher mark after 63 days off.
5.45 Betfair Plays Different Nursery Handicap (1m 2f)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Captain Bruce
11/4
N Tinkler
Alex Jary (3)
Thanh Nam
7/1
J P Owen
Pat Cosgrave
Recent Form and Comments
Captain Bruce: Form figures: 7711 098151 P. He won over 7f here in August and followed that with a fair effort. His form improved notably when stepped up to 1m 2f at Newcastle (AW) three weeks ago, securing a win (with Loose Connection behind him).
Thanh Nam: Form figures: 8020 77544 H. He showed a tendency to get outpaced over 7f here in August, only running on for fourth. He displayed the same characteristic when getting going too late at Wolverhampton (7f, AW) 12 days ago.
Spotlight Verdict
Telfy Boy (second choice) shaped as if he was worth a try over this trip… but CAPTAIN BRUCE has already proven his stamina having posted an improved effort when winning at Newcastle last time. He’s taken to follow up, while Thanh Nam is also of interest now upped in distance.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: The race is for 2yo.
Fate of Favourites: Not provided in sources.
Trainer Records: Not provided in sources.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Captain Bruce
Proven stamina at 1m 2f on AW; posted an improved winning effort last time. Must be respected despite the weight rise.
Carries a 5lb higher mark.
Thanh Nam
May be suited by the extra distance (1m 2f) given his tendency to finish strongly after being outpaced over 7f.
Still a maiden (0/7 runs shown in form figures).
6.15 Bet At Your Best With Betfair Novice Stakes (1m 2f)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Good Old Days
11/4
John and Thady Gosden
William Buick
Participle
9/4
R M Beckett
Hector Crouch
Recent Form and Comments
Good Old Days: Form figures: 2720 3 P. She is a full sister to the Group/Grade 1 winner Nations Pride. She finished third of ten on debut at Ascot (1m 2f, good to firm) in May, where she reportedly hung right. This is her first run since and she switches to AW.
Participle: Form figures: 7377 2-7336 P. Her debut resulted in a narrow defeat (beaten a nose) by Qilin Queen (now BHA-rated 105). She has since run four times this year, placing below that initial level. She retains cheekpieces for this AW debut.
Spotlight Verdict
Solarize (second choice) built on his debut effort… so a chance is taken on GOOD OLD DAYS on her first outing since debuting at Ascot in May. Participle hasn’t built on last year’s debut effort so Goodwood Mogul is third on the list now back up to 1m2f.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: 3yo 3-5-23, 4yo+ 0-0-4.
Fate of Favourites: 131.
Trainer Records (in this race): John & Thady Gosden 1-0-3.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Good Old Days
Exceptional pedigree (sister to Nations Pride). Showed ability on debut; potential for major improvement.
Returning from a break since May. Hung right on debut.
Participle
Possesses the highest historical RPR among the runners (beaten a nose by a subsequent high-rated horse).
Has failed to reproduce his debut form in four subsequent runs this year.
6.45 Betfair Exchange Beacons Handicap (5f)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
General Assembly
5/1
Miss Clare Hobson
David Egan
Massimo Blue
5/4
George Baker
Cieren Fallon
Recent Form and Comments
General Assembly: Form figures: 7957 784347 P. He is 0-6 for his current yard. He ran respectably in two starts here before a lesser effort two weeks ago.
Massimo Blue: Form figures: 8244 670812 M. He returned to form dramatically, winning at Southwell (6f, AW) a week ago, and followed up just two days later with a good runner-up finish under a penalty at Wolverhampton (6f, AW).
Spotlight Verdict
Massimo Blue (second choice) can’t be dismissed in his current form but he isn’t sure to be suited by the drop to 5f. With that in mind, SHALAA ASKER is taken to end a long losing run following a good effort over C&D two weeks ago, with Twilight Madness third choice.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: 3yo 1-5-17, 4yo+ 4-4-27.
Fate of Favourites: 15513.
Trainer Records (in this race): Robert Cowell 1-1-2, Charlie Wallis 0-1-3.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
General Assembly
Ran well at this course previously. Could bounce back.
Poor recent strike rate (0-6 for current yard). Finished poorly two weeks ago.
Massimo Blue
Currently in peak form with a recent win and runner-up finish on AW.
The drop back to 5f is a concern as his recent form is over 6f. Carries a penalty.
7.15 betting.betfair.com Handicap (1m)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Sheikh Raj
9/2
Richard Hughes
Finley Marsh
Summer Heat
4/1
Saeed Bin Suroor
Oisin Murphy
Recent Form and Comments
Sheikh Raj: Form figures: 7287 -56423 H. Despite being a maiden (0/7 runs), he ran well recently, splitting more prominently ridden rivals at Southwell (7f, AW) in August. His latest run was a third of 11 in a Class 4 at Ayr (7f, soft), where he did his best work late on.
Summer Heat: Form figures: 7709 42362 P. She has been runner-up in two of her three starts on AW, including recently here over 1m 2f. In that race, she travelled well into the lead before being run down late.
Spotlight Verdict
Last week’s 7f Chelmsford winner Waiting All Night remains on a handy mark… but is second choice behind SHEIKH RAJ (nap), who has been shaping well over 7f and should be suited by the return to this trip. Summer Heat could be suited by the drop back in trip after a good run over 1m2f three weeks ago and she is next on the list.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: 3yo 3-5-35, 4yo+ 3-8-35.
Fate of Favourites: 242112.
Trainer Records (in this race): Charlie Johnston 1-0-3, Richard Hughes 0-1-1.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Sheikh Raj
Strong claims, as the return to 1m is expected to suit based on his late running over 7f. Has shown competitive form in Class 4 races.
Still seeking a first win (0/7 runs shown in form figures).
Summer Heat
Consistent form on AW (two recent runner-up finishes). The drop from 1m 2f to 1m should suit after she ran down late last time.
New headgear (visor replaces cheekpieces).
7.45 Betfair Exchange Handicap (2m)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Home And Dry
9/4
T Faulkner
Cieren Fallon
Jack Langley
11/10
S Dow
Paddy Bradley
Recent Form and Comments
Home And Dry: Form figures: 3635 /467-3 P. This 7yo’s sole win was over this C&D (2m, AW) in April 2021. He is returning from an absence since June, where he finished a below-form third of five at Lingfield (2m, AW). He is noted as a front-runner.
Jack Langley: Form figures: 8114 736251 M. He secured both his previous wins over 1m 4f at Lingfield. He returned to form with a win there nine days ago, for which he carries a 6lb penalty (making him 2lb wrong at the weights).
Spotlight Verdict
Jack Langley (second choice) holds obvious claims despite a 6lb penalty but has a question mark regarding the trip, so a chance is taken on WITCH HAZEL. She was fourth at Kempton last month in a race that has worked out well and it may be worth forgiving her latest effort, as she sat too close to the pace.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: 3yo 1-0-8, 4yo+ 1-3-7.
Fate of Favourites: 41.
Trainer Records: Not provided in sources.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Home And Dry
Proven C&D winner. Front-running style can be effective.
Returning from a break (since June) and was below form last time.
Jack Langley
Recent winner in good form. Brother stays this distance, suggesting he may cope with the step up to 2m.
Questionable suitability for the 2m trip, having only won over 1m 4f previously. Runs under a 6lb penalty (2lb wrong).
8.15 Betfair Safer Gambling Tools Handicap (1m)
Horse (Master Top Two)
Odds (TimeWise)
Trainer
Jockey
Chloe’s Courage
5/1
J Ryan
Laura Pearson
Cinderella Man
5/2
P M Phelan
Paddy Bradley
Recent Form and Comments
Chloe’s Courage: Form figures: 8169 -53632 M. She has been competitive in three of her four handicaps. Her latest run was a second of 14 at Brighton last week. Although her last two runs were at shorter distances (6f/7f), she is expected to stay the 1m trip.
Cinderella Man: Form figures: 7962 405561 P. He won narrowly over C&D two weeks ago, settling better that day with the visor removed. He was only raised 2lb for that win and may still have further improvement in him.
Spotlight Verdict
Last week’s penalised Chelmsford winner Kessaar Power may win again here and Monday’s run on heavy ground at Bath is best forgotten. Captain Cess could go well if taking to this new surface and others in the mix include Cinderella Man, Poke The Bear, Chloe’s Courage.
Race Statistics
Age Groups: 3yo 0-0-3, 4yo+ 1-2-7.
Trainer Records (in this race): Phil McEntee 1-0-1.
Fate of Favourites: Not provided in sources.
Assessment of Top Two Chances
Horse
Strengths
Weaknesses / Suitability
Chloe’s Courage
Running competitively in handicaps, including a recent second place. Should be suited by the step up to 1m.
Recent runs have been over shorter distances (6f/7f).
Cinderella Man
Recent C&D winner who settled well without headgear last time. Raised only 2lb, retaining a favourable mark.
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