Newbury 1.06 – Race Preview

This is a true test of stamina over 2 miles for lower-rated horses (Class 5, 0-70), further complicated by the fact it’s an apprentice handicap, meaning less experienced jockeys are riding. Given the distance and time of year (late October), proven stamina and an ability to handle potentially softer ground are absolutely essential.

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The Main Contenders

1. AIGHEAR (OR 53)
   • Why she’s a strong contender: This mare is in the form of her life, coming here seeking a hat-trick after two dominant wins at Ayr on heavy and soft ground in recent weeks. Those wins came over 1m 5f and 1m 7f, proving her stamina and liking for testing conditions. Although she steps up from Class 6 to Class 5 and carries a 4lb penalty for her latest win, she won easily and looks well ahead of the handicapper. She handles the trip, the ground, and is thriving. Lauren Young is a very capable apprentice.
2. CORSICAN CAPER (OR 55)
   • Why he’s a strong contender: Extremely consistent, finishing 2nd on his last two starts over 1m 6f on good-to-soft ground. He’s a proven stayer with wins up to 2m 1f and handles soft/heavy conditions well (Soft_3-1-11, Heavy_1-0-4). He seems fairly handicapped (OR 55, down from 66 last year) and gets weight off with apprentice Alfie Gee claiming 5lb. Looks primed for a big run under suitable conditions.
3. IZAKAYA (OR 51)
   • Why she’s a contender: Produced a massive career-best LTO when stepped up to 2m 1f on soft ground at Bath, winning easily by over 3 lengths at odds of 40/1. The trainer attributed the improvement to the trip and settling better. She’s up 6lb for that win, but if she can reproduce that form, she’s a major player. Stamina is now proven, and apprentice Isobelle Chalmers takes off 5lb.

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Potential Dangers & Question Marks

• TRAPPER JOHN (OR 64): Ran a good 2nd over 1m 6f at Catterick just 6 days ago, suggesting this step up to 2m could suit. He’s relatively lightly raced this season and could still be improving. Ashley Lewis takes off 5lb. Interesting if he truly stays the trip.
• YELLOW STAR (OR 70): Very lightly raced (only 5 career starts). Made a promising return after a huge 868-day layoff when 5th over 2m at Goodwood 12 days ago. He’s entitled to improve significantly for that run, stamina looks fine, and apprentice Toby Moore takes off a valuable 7lb. A potential dark horse.
• CAPONE (OR 64): A proven stayer at this trip, but his recent form is uninspiring, weakening late on in races. Needs to recapture his old spark.
• NO MORE BOLERO (OR 70): Ran a cracker to be 2nd over 2m at Chester two starts back but was then tailed off on heavy ground last time. Risky, but capable on his day.

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Verdict

In a race demanding stamina, especially on likely softer ground, proven stayers who handle conditions are key.

AIGHEAR is thriving and looks difficult to beat in her current mood, despite the rise in class and weight. She ticks all the boxes. Corsican Caper is Mr. Consistent, handles the ground, stays well, and looks dangerously handicapped. Izakaya must be respected after her demolition job last time out when stepped up in trip. Of the less exposed stayers, Yellow Star could show significant improvement from his comeback run and looks interesting with a 7lb claimer up.

1. Aighear
2. Corsican Caper
3. Yellow Star