Race Preview: Ludlow 3:37 (Class 5 Handicap Hurdle)

This is a Class 5 handicap hurdle run over nearly 3 miles (2m 7f 174y). With only 6 runners declared, tactics could play a part on Ludlow’s flat, right-handed circuit. Stamina will be key over this trip.

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Runner-by-Runner Analysis

• Prince De Juilley (12-7):
  • Form: P2/2198P3124-4787221. Comes here in peak form, having won easily at Stratford over 2m6f just 5 days ago off a mark of OR100. Before that, he finished second twice over 3m+ off similar marks.
  • Rating: OR107. Races under a 7lb penalty for his recent win, but jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell claims a valuable 5lb, effectively meaning he runs off 109 (carrying 12-2). He’s a course winner over 3m off OR100.
  • Notes: Thriving, race-fit, stays well, and benefits significantly from the jockey’s claim. Handles good ground. Leading contender.
• Tankardstown Diva (12-3):
  • Form: 213/570F84P738-52721. Also arrives in winning form, scoring comfortably over 2m7f at Market Rasen 9 days ago off OR96. Was a good second before that.
  • Rating: OR103. Carries a 7lb penalty for that win. Jockey Jack Andrews claims 3lb, meaning she effectively runs off 107 (carrying 12-0).
  • Notes: Like Prince De Juilley, she’s in top form and proven over the trip on good ground. The jockey claim helps negate the penalty. Major danger.
• Katana (11-11):
  • Form: 5654-22PP66. Form has completely tailed off. Was well beaten (last of 6) at Ffos Las just 7 days ago and pulled up twice before that.
  • Rating: OR97. Drops further in the weights but needs a massive revival. Wears first-time cheekpieces.
  • Notes: Impossible to recommend on recent evidence.
• Touchwoodexpress (11-10):
  • Form: 136/49124FF-1. Bounced back to form when winning over hurdles (3m2f, Good) at Newton Abbot 24 days ago off OR94. That followed two falls over fences.
  • Rating: OR96. Up 2lb for that win, which looks fair.
  • Notes: Stamina is assured. Needs to prove that last run wasn’t a one-off after his previous jumping frailties (albeit over fences). Sam Twiston-Davies is a positive booking. Place chance.
• Arctic Angel (11-2):
  • Form: 3P840344-1P. Won over 3m2f (Good) at Newton Abbot in June off OR85. However, she was pulled up when last seen 116 days ago at Cartmel.
  • Rating: OR88. Needs to bounce back from that poor effort and the subsequent break.
  • Notes: Stamina is fine, but fitness has to be taken on trust, and others arrive in much better form.
• Needtoknow (10-2):
  • Form: 36-P4765. Has shown very little in 4 hurdle starts, beaten a long way each time. Well beaten off OR79 last time.
  • Rating: OR74. Drops 5lb but looks completely outclassed. Wears first-time cheekpieces and tongue-strap.
  • Notes: Makes no appeal.

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Verdict

This race revolves around the two recent winners carrying penalties, Prince De Juilley and Tankardstown Diva. Both won comfortably last time out, stay the trip well, handle the ground, and have their penalties significantly offset by capable claiming riders.

Preference is marginally for Prince De Juilley. He won just 5 days ago, suggesting he’s thriving, and his jockey claims 5lb compared to the 3lb claimed off Tankardstown Diva, making him slightly better treated at the weights despite technically being higher rated. He’s also won at Ludlow before.

Tankardstown Diva is the obvious danger, arriving in similar form. Touchwoodexpress won last time out and could challenge for a place if reproducing that effort.

1. Prince De Juilley 2. Tankardstown Diva 3. Touchwoodexpress